075
FXUS64 KMOB 191058
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
558 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 555 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

- Abnormally hot conditions continue with a Heat Advisory in
  effect for all locations Wednesday as afternoon heat indices
  rise into the 108 to 112 range. Additional heat advisories will
  likely be needed through the rest of the week.

- There is a Moderate risk of rip currents for area beaches in
  Florida Wednesday and Thursday.

- Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will continue to be capable of
  producing brief heavy rainfall and locally strong to damaging
  wind gusts.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 555 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

No updates to the forecast needed. Rain showers and thunderstorms
are absent on the radar at this time, but are expected to develop
soon after sunrise.
/16

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

We continue our daily cadence of very hot temperatures and
afternoon showers and thunderstorms Wednesday. Upper ridging
continues to loosen its grip across the area as upper troughing
gradually becomes dominant across the eastern CONUS. With that
said, another day of Heat Advisories will exist for the entire
area Wednesday as heat indices once again soar into the 108 to 112
range. A similar environment will be in place for strong to
damaging wind gusts in any storms during the afternoon hours with
some mid-level dry air present and ample surface-based
instability.

As we head into Thursday we may see a reprieve from storm
coverage but it will cost us with more heat. A few spots will see
some storms, but we won`t see the widespread relief we have been
with afternoon storms. Additional heat advisories and potentially
extreme heat warnings may become necessary for Thursday and
Friday. Storm coverage is likely to increase Friday as upper
troughing influences the area more.

Once we get into the weekend and early next week upper troughing
shifts off the east coast and upper ridging lumbers back into the
area. We`ll likely see a drop in potential for afternoon
thunderstorms only to be replaced with more heat. Our heatwave
will likely continue through this period as highs stay in the
middle to upper 90`s, with some spots cracking 100 any given day
over southeast Mississippi into interior portions of southwest
Alabama.

The rip current risk gradually tapers as we head through the rest
of the week, with a moderate risk Wednesday for the Florida
Panhandle becoming a low risk by Friday. A low risk will remain
for the Alabama coastline through the end of the week. MM/25

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 555 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

General VFR conditions expected through the forecast. Developing
rain showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday morning into the
afternoon will bring drops in conditions to low end MVFR/IFR in
heavy rains. Impact to operations may be possible. Coverage and
strength will quickly decrease in the evening as the day`s heating
is lost. Westerly wind 5 to 10 knots during the day will become
light overnight.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 118 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

A light to occasionally moderate southwest to westerly flow pattern
persists across the marine waters in the coming week. Isolated to
potentially scattered showers and storms can be expected each
morning with locally higher seas and winds near storms. No impacts
expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near
thunderstorms.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      95  76  96  76 /  50  10  20  10
Pensacola   95  80  96  79 /  50  10  30  10
Destin      93  80  94  79 /  40  10  30  20
Evergreen   98  73  99  73 /  20  20  30  20
Waynesboro 100  75 100  72 /  50  10  30  20
Camden      97  75  98  74 /  10  10  20  20
Crestview   96  74  98  74 /  50  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for ALZ051>060-261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$