320
FXUS64 KMOB 190528
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1128 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1127 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

 - Areas of dense fog will be possible across southeastern
   Mississippi and southwest Alabama again tonight into Wednesday
   morning. Patchy dense fog will be possible each morning this
   week.

 - Risk for rip currents may increase to a high risk late in the
   week ahead of the next chance for showers and storms.

 - Rain chances gradually increase into the weekend; however,
   drought conditions are expected to continue across the area
   until the rain arrives.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1127 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

 - Areas of dense fog will be possible across southeastern
Mississippi and southwest Alabama again tonight into Wednesday
morning. Patchy dense fog will be possible each morning this week.

 - Risk for rip currents may increase to a high risk late in the
week ahead of the next chance for showers and storms.

 - Rain chances gradually increase into the weekend; however,
drought conditions are expected to continue across the area until
the rain arrives.

Now through Monday...

An upper ridge stretching north over the eastern Conus will build as
an upper trough digs over the western Conus through mid week. Energy
from the western upper trough ejects, flowing through the flow over
the eastern upper ridge, helping to deamplify the ridge. The ridge
keeps the bulk of the energy north of the forecast area into the
coming weekend, though. The ridge also helps to maintain a surface
ridge stretching southwest along the East coast. This surface ridge
in concert with a developing surface low over the Plains increases
onshore flow over the Lower Mississippi River Valley, then the
Southeast the end of the week into the weekend before a cold front
crosses these regions Friday night into Saturday. Precipitable h20
values creep up to around 1.7" ahead of the approaching front. Rain
returns to the forecast area Friday, lasting into the weekend in
response, though with the better upper dynamics passing north of the
forecast area, the resultant higher PoPs occur over northwestern
portions of the forecast area Friday/Friday night. The risk of any
rowdy storms Friday/Friday night is low, with limited instability
(MUCapes < 800J/kg) along with meh wind shear (Bulk Wind shear
<=32kts). The more progressive nature of the passing upper dynamics
will also help to limit any water issues.

Fog development is likely tonight, and again Wednesday night, with
enough mixing combined with a very moist boundary developing as
temperatures cool overnight. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect
tonight, starting at 06z/midnight, for areas over and west of a
Baldwin County to Clarke County.

Upper subsidence from the upper ridge will keep temperatures will
above seasonal norms through the forecast. High temperatures in the
upper 70s to around 80 well inland, mid 70s along the coast are
expected through the forecast. Low temperatures see an upward creep
through the rest of the week until the front`s passage this coming
weekend. Mid 50s to around 60 expected Wednesday night rise into the
mid to upper 60s Friday night. Post frontal, low temperatures drop
into the low 50s north of Highway 84 to upper 50s south of I-10
Sunday night.

Onshore winds increase through the week, with the Rip Risk
increasing to Moderate to High Friday night through the weekend.
/16
&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Dense Fog will be an issue with most of the forecast area tonight.
Developing stratus will temper some areas. Drops to LIFR VISBYs, or
even lower, are possible over significant portions of the forecast
area. This fog will mix out beginning soon after sunrise and should
be gone by mid morning. MVFR to VFR conditions are expected today
under southeast to southerly winds of 5 to 10 knots. Fog development
is again possible late Wednesday evening as winds become light.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1127 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Light to at times moderate onshore flow increases to
moderate this weekend. A light to moderate post frontal offshore
flow comes to area waters Sunday. No impacts expected other than
locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      61  80  60  77 /   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   62  77  61  75 /   0   0   0   0
Destin      62  76  62  75 /   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   56  82  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  59  81  58  81 /   0   0   0   0
Camden      58  81  57  81 /   0   0   0   0
Crestview   54  81  55  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for ALZ051>053-
     261>266.

FL...None.
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$