739
FXUS64 KMOB 061159
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
659 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 628 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

- Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop later this
  afternoon and evening. Storms today could be locally strong to
  severe with damaging wind gusts the main risks, as well as
  isolated flash flooding.

- Peak heat index values of around 100-107 are expected through
  mid next week, warmest today and Monday. A Heat Advisory may be
  needed for portions of the area Monday with some spots
  approaching 108 to 110 heat indices.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 628 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Performed a brief gridded update this morning to bring in latest
short-range guidance matched with obs/trends. Monitoring ongoing
coastal showers/storms this morning. This area remains in a
favorable environment for brief waterspouts given weak low-level
shear, ample ML CAPE, step LL Lapse rates and high 0-1km RH. This
activity will steadily diminish through mid-morning, then, will
monitor developing scattered showers/storms over north-central
LA/AL this afternoon, drifting south. Northerly flow and noticably
mid-level dry air will support damaging wind gusts in any stronger
to locally severe storm. Glancing at the REFS/HRRR and HREF
trends indicate some potential for this activity to drift to the
coast later this evening. This remains in question, especially if
convection becomes more widespread to the north and drives a
southward-surging outflow boundary, self-sustaning updraft
propagation to allow storms to drive themselves farther than
guidance suggests. Something to monitor, as SPC maintains a
Marginal Risk for generally the entire area except for the coast,
and future updates may reflect this threat to be dragged south
especially if CAMs continue to support this idea.

Additionally, upgraded Tuesday to a Moderate Risk for rip currents
for all AL/FL beaches as a heads up. The threat appears for now to
be primarily in the daytime hours (late morning through late
afternoon) but will assess the need to expand into the night if
guidance continues to increase.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1039 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

We continue to sit on the periphery of upper ridging with subtle
shortwaves aloft moving across the area. This will help to keep us
hot and stormy as we head through Monday. Afternoon highs will be
quite hot over the interior topping out in the middle to upper
90`s with heat indices warming into the 100 to 107 range. Nearer
the coast, we don`t mix out quite as much and stay in the lower to
middle 90`s for highs with similar heat indices. A shortwave
moves across the area this afternoon, serving as a focus for
thunderstorm development. Guidance varies significantly on the
convective evolution, but the presence of the shortwave with ample
instability gives confidence that at least scattered coverage of
showers and storms will exist this afternoon areawide, lingering
into the evening hours nearer the coast. There`s also a fair
amount of uncertainty Monday depending on convective evolution
upstream across Georgia/Carolina`s where a complex of storms may
form and roll across the area. If that doesn`t exist, then we will
likely see another day similar to Sunday with hot afternoon
temperatures and scattered to numerous showers and storms. If
storms are more robust in the morning, we`d likely stay cooler
through the day with a drier afternoon. Any storms through Monday
will have the potential to be strong, capable of producing strong
wind gusts in addition to heavy rainfall. Isolated instances of
flash flooding can`t be ruled out across urban areas where storms
are able to train over the same locations.

Upper ridging gradually spreads eastward across the region with
deep layer easterly flow becoming established Tuesday into
Wednesday. After this, ridging breaks down into late week as upper
troughing becomes established across the eastern CONUS. This
should keep us with a somewhat active pattern as subtle shortwaves
continue to ride the periphery of the ridge. The expectation is
for scattered to locally numerous showers and storms each
afternoon, with daily highs in the lower to middle 90`s.
Similarly, any storms may be able to produce gusty winds and heavy
rainfall. Overnight temperatures stay steady state in the lower
to middle 70`s.

The rip current risk remains Low for Florida/Alabama beaches
throughout the period, perhaps trying to reach Moderate Tuesday as
stronger easterly flow becomes established. For now, we continue
to advertise a Low risk but may need to bump that up in future
forecast package updates. MM/25

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Focus for this morning will be ongoing SCT TSRA/SHRA across
coastal locations, at/near KJKA/KPNS, but will dissipate around
mid-morning. Otherwise, will see additional inland SCT TSRA/SHRA
later this afternoon, but could see a few strong or locally severe
storms drifting in from the north late afternoon into the
evening. Main impacts will be gusty, erratic downdraft winds and
reduced VIS/CIGs from heavy rain leading to periodic lower flight
categories. Otherwise, VFR outside of SHRA/TSRA activity will
prevail. KLG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1039 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

A generally light to occasionally moderate southwest to west flow
prevails through Monday. Light to moderate easterly flow becomes
established Tuesday into Wednesday. Light to occasionally moderate
onshore flow returns for the remainder of the week into the
weekend. Seas generally stay around 1 to 2 feet throughout the
upcoming week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
remain possible during the morning hours each day with the
potential to produce gusty winds and waterspouts. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      93  74  95  74 /  20  20  50  40
Pensacola   91  77  92  76 /  30  20  50  60
Destin      89  78  90  76 /  20  20  50  60
Evergreen   96  72  97  71 /  20  20  50  30
Waynesboro  98  73  99  72 /  10  20  20  20
Camden      97  73  97  72 /  10  20  30  20
Crestview   93  73  95  72 /  30  20  60  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$