371
FXUS64 KMOB 290710
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
210 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

...New MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 202 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

 - A much drier airmass persists across the area, leading to an
   elevated fire danger risk through Tuesday.

 - A LOW risk of rip currents continues through Tuesday before
   increasing to a HIGH risk Thursday for all area beaches.

 - Rain chances increase by late week and into the upcoming
   weekend. Heavy rainfall, which could lead to an increased
   potential for flooding, is possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1103 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

A dry airmass will continue to filter into the region, and the
risk for wildfires remains the main concern as minimum relative
humidity (RH) values this afternoon are expected to lower to
around 20-30% away from the coast. We still expect the sustained
winds and wind gusts to remain around 10 mph or less, well below
Red Flag Warning criteria. However, factoring in the dry
antecedent conditions and Moderate to Severe Drought across much
of the area, there exists an elevated fire danger risk through at
least Monday night and possibly into Tuesday.Some recovery is
expected Wednesday as RH values recover into the 30-45% range.

A surface ridge will then set up across the southern Appalachians
and the Southeast region, allowing for winds to slowly shift
easterly today (southeasterly along the coast) to southeasterly
for all areas Wednesday and Thursday. This will allow low-level
moisture to return into the forecast area with heat indices
increasing into the middle to upper 90s by Thursday. Rain chances
also start to increase mainly during the day Thursday, and
especially into Friday and the upcoming weekend as an upper trough
approaches from the west. There are some indications that we
could enter a rather active pattern which features several rounds
of very heavy rainfall over multiple days, which could ultimately
lead to an increased potential of flooding.

A Low Risk of Rip Currents is expected to continue through Tuesday
night. The rip current risk quickly increases to a High Risk by
Thursday as onshore flow increases. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

VFR conditions expected over the area through the forecast. Light
overnight winds will become southerly 5 to 10 knots as a seabreeze
moves inland, then return to light after sunset.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 202 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Light flow today transitions to a more moderate at times strong
southeasterly by Thursday, where it remains into the weekend. A
cold front sagging south over or near area water Sunday will bring
a more variable flow the end of the weekend into the coming week.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      66  88  71  87 /   0  20  10  70
Pensacola   71  86  75  85 /  10  20  20  70
Destin      72  86  75  86 /  10  20  30  70
Evergreen   59  91  65  89 /   0   0   0  50
Waynesboro  61  90  66  89 /   0   0   0  50
Camden      60  91  66  89 /   0   0   0  30
Crestview   63  90  68  88 /   0  20  10  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$