690
FXUS64 KMOB 151730
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1230 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

...New Aviation, Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Now through Monday Night...

We start the period with a well defined low/mid level ridge of
high pressure positioned from the southwest Atlantic, westward
across the FL Peninsula into the central Gulf. On the western
flank of this ridge, a H20/H30 upper level trof axis was aligned
over the central Gulf coast and marked by a cyclonic curvature in
the cloud elements. This feature operating on a weakly defined
coastal surface boundary draped from southeast AL/southwest GA
border to down across the AL/NW FL coastal waters, combined with
more than sufficient deep layer environmental moisture (PWAT`s 1.8
to 2.1") and daily instability has resulted in pockets of cold
cloud tops => scattering of showers and storms. As we go through
the remainder of the day, the expectation is coverage will begin
to increase over the land zones and move/develop northward.
Forecasters are beginning to see this in radar trends in central
MS. At the present time, the environment is characterized by high
CAPE and low shear, resulting in typical summer-time ordinary,
pulse type storms, which could become strong at times contributing
to locally brief strong wind gusts and perhaps small hail upon
collapse of storm centroids. We cannot rule out a brief severe
storm here or there, but the overall threat is low. Frequent
lightning and brief, localized heavy rains are also possible with
the stronger storms. Storms lingering into the evening are
expected to weaken with the loss of instability. A similar pattern
remains in place as we open the work week on Monday and Monday
night.

Rip current risk along area beaches is low. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

CIG`s and VSBY temporarily down to MVFR categories with passage
of any tsra containing heavier downpours through 16.00Z. Away from
convective influences, winds light. Lingering convective activity
after 16.00Z is expected to be lifting northward of the terminals
and weakening. /10

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Light onshore flow to persist into early next week. Occasionally
moderate southerly flow is possible, especially in the nearshore
waters which will be influenced by the diurnal land and sea breeze
pattern. Winds and seas will likely be temporarily higher in the
vicinity of storms. /73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  89  74  90  75  89  75  91 /  20  70  40  80  20  80  20  70
Pensacola   77  88  78  88  79  88  78  89 /  20  70  40  80  20  70  30  70
Destin      79  88  79  89  80  90  80  90 /  30  70  50  80  20  70  30  60
Evergreen   71  91  72  90  72  91  72  92 /  30  70  20  80  10  80  10  70
Waynesboro  70  91  71  93  72  92  72  93 /  30  70  20  80  10  70  10  60
Camden      71  89  72  89  72  89  73  90 /  40  70  30  80  10  70  10  60
Crestview   72  90  73  90  73  91  72  92 /  20  80  30  90  10  80  10  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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