698
FXUS64 KMOB 301953
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
253 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

...New MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 253 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

- Waterspouts will be possible over the Gulf waters mainly during
  the morning hours each day.

- A Moderate Risk of Rip Currents is in place for local area
  beaches through Monday.

- Heat index values near 100 trend higher through next week,
  potentially reaching 108-110 in some locations by late in the
  week on into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

A low pressure system located about 125 miles south of the coast
of southeast Louisiana, identified as Invest 97L, is expected to
drift westward to west-northwestward over the next couple of days.
The National Hurricane Center has a 30% chance of tropical
development of this system within 48 hours and a 30% chance of
development through 7 days. The latest guidance appears to favor
taking this system into/towards the upper Texas coast or possibly
extreme southwest Louisiana early next week. As this system
continues westward away from the forecast area, an upper ridge
mainly over the southern/central Plains steadily builds into the
eastern states through Tuesday. A weak upper trof extending from
over the forecast area up to the Carolinas dissipates as the upper
ridge builds eastward, though a series of shortwaves are expected
to move across the forecast area within the upper ridge flow
pattern.

Am anticipating mainly scattered convective development across
much of the forecast area today with daytime heating before
diminishing early this evening. Scattered convection develops near
the coast late tonight, then develops further inland on Monday
south of Highway 84. A similar convective cycle repeats for late
Monday night into Tuesday, although coverage may be enhanced on
Tuesday across extreme southeast Mississippi and extreme southwest
Alabama where a bit better low level convergence may occur. The
upper ridge persists across much of the eastern states Wednesday
into Thursday before weakening Friday into Saturday as an upper
trof swings into the interior eastern states. A modest upper trof
appears to advance across the Florida peninsula on Tuesday then
progress slowly into the north central Gulf Wednesday into
Thursday. This feature along with abundant deep layer moisture and
the sea breeze looks to support likely pops on Wednesday over the
coastal counties tapering to slight chance pops well inland, then
for Thursday anticipate chance to likely pops areawide. Mainly
chance pops follow for Friday then anticipate slight chance to
chance pops for Saturday.

An important thing to monitor will be a tropical wave (the
remnants of Dolly) which is expected to reach the southeastern
Gulf by the middle of the week. The National Hurricane Center has
a 20% chance of tropical development for this system over the
next 7 days. Some ensemble guidance members indicate possible
development over the eastern half of the Gulf by Friday, but at
this point there are just too many unknowns to draw conclusions.
Highs on Monday will be in the lower 90s, then lower to mid 90s
are expected for Tuesday through Saturday. Heat index values
around 100 on Monday trend to 100-105 for Tuesday and Wednesday,
then trend to 100-107 for Thursday through Saturday, potentially
reaching 108-110 in some locations late in the period. A moderate
risk of rip currents is expected through Monday, followed by a low
risk for Tuesday through Thursday. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Broad area of low pressure, southeast of the LA coast, is tracking
slowly westward and is generating some rain bands which are
spreading westward over the MS Sound this afternoon. Much of the
convection though has been mostly offshore, but do expect some
afternoon shra/tsra development along the coastal counties which
will likely bring brief wind gusts and lowering cigs with their
passage. Away from shra/tsra, VFR conditions and light east to
southeast winds expected through the period. /10

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

A low pressure center located about 125 miles south of southeastern
Louisiana will drift west-northwestward and move into the upper
Texas or southwestern Louisiana coast Tuesday or Tuesday night. This
system has a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression or
tropical storm before moving inland. A light to moderate easterly to
southeasterly flow will prevail over the forecast area through
Friday. Waterspouts will be possible mainly during the morning
hours. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      74  90  74  91 /  20  40  20  60
Pensacola   76  89  76  90 /  20  30  20  40
Destin      77  89  77  90 /  20  30  20  40
Evergreen   71  93  72  95 /   0  10  10  20
Waynesboro  72  94  73  96 /  10  10  10  20
Camden      73  93  73  95 /   0  10   0  10
Crestview   71  92  72  93 /  10  30  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$