423
FXUS64 KMOB 041822
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
122 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

 - HIGH risk of rip currents through Saturday night for the
   coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. Surf builds to
   5-6 feet through Friday. High surf combined with high tide
   will lead to overwash and minor inundation issues along the
   coast on Thursday and Friday.

 - Small craft conditions persist through Saturday.

 - Rain chances increase this weekend, particularly over the
   western half of the local area. Heavy rainfall is possible,
   which could lead to more flooding concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Step outside and you`ll probably notice a significant change in
how dry it is today as the backdoor surface front has pushed well
offshore and is currently sitting in the central Gulf. Cooler and
drier air will linger around the area through Friday before rain
chances begin to increase. The biggest concern this week will be
the increased surf along the coast. This will be the result of a
tightening pressure gradient across our Gulf Waters as a weak area
of lower pressures develops along the stalled boundary. Life
threatening rip currents and large surf will be possible through
the next 48 hours. Some coastal overwash will also be possible
during high tide, especially on Friday as winds may become more
southeasterly with time. If winds turn more southeasterly prior to
high tide on Friday, some minor coastal flooding could be
possible across northern Mobile bay resulting in some overwash
along the Causeway. Guidance is not sold on this potential;
however, upper end ensemble guidance does support some potential
impacts.

By the end of the week and into the weekend, the upper ridge will
slowly move east as the surface trough/low pressure will lift
northward across Louisiana and into the Mid-South. Along with it
will come a slug of moisture as PWATS once again climb into the 2
to 2.25 inch range mainly west of I-65 by Saturday into Sunday. As
this system lifts north, increased rain chances will follow and
the potential for some training storms and high PWATs could result
in some locally heavy rainfall throughout the weekend. While there
will likely not be a defined focus for heavy rainfall, if any
storm decides to linger around long enough over an area that has
already seen plenty of rainfall the last month, it could result in
some localized flash flooding. We will have to keep an eye on
things as we move into the weekend. After this weekend, things
will get a little more complex as the system lifts north and
overall ridging tries to setup over the Mississippi Valley.
Depending on the placement of the ridge will determine if we are
stuck in the soup of summer or a more mild pattern. Nonetheless,
we will likely see a continued period of isolated to scattered
storms in a more summer like pattern into early next week. BB-8

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

VFR flight category prevails across the region through Friday.
Winds generally remain out of the east to southeast 5 to 10 knots
inland, with 10 to 15 knots nearer the coast. Gusts near the
coast will approach 20 to 25 knots at times today and tomorrow.
MM/25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Easterly flow prevails through this afternoon becoming more
southeasterly tonight through Friday. Small craft conditions
continue through Friday across the bays, waterways, and Gulf waters.
Onshore flow develops Saturday through early next week. Expect
locally higher winds and seas near thunderstorms. BB-8

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      67  85  71  83 /   0  30  50  80
Pensacola   71  85  74  84 /   0  20  20  50
Destin      71  86  74  84 /   0  10  10  30
Evergreen   61  88  65  87 /   0   0   0  40
Waynesboro  62  87  68  83 /   0  20  10  70
Camden      61  87  65  86 /   0   0   0  40
Crestview   62  89  65  87 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 AM CDT Saturday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 AM CDT Saturday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for GMZ630>634-655-
     675.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT Friday night for GMZ650-
     670.

&&

$$