223
FXUS64 KMOB 150601
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
101 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...Now through Sunday night...

A strong upper level shortwave swings though a mean upper trough
over the Mississippi River today into tonight, with more upper
energy moving through the mean upper trough late tonight through
Saturday. This energy is being directed over the Southeast on the
north side of an upper ridge over the Gulf to the tropical Atlantic.
A surface ridge stretching west over the Gulf continues to pump Gulf
moisture inland (precipitable h20 values in the 1.8"-2.0" range
through the Near Term). Daily scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms develop over land during the day again Sunday, from
scattered convection developing south of the northern Gulf coast
overnight into the early morning. Pretty much the same ole story
with respect to rowdy storms, with afternoon MLCapes in the 2500-
3000J/kg range and DCapes in the 700-1000J/kg range. Bulk shear is
well below that need for organized storms, so the storms are
expected to be of the usual pulse severe type, with downburst winds
and small hail expected.

Temperatures around to a bit above seasonal norms are expected
through the Near Term. High temperatures have topped out in the
upper 80s to around 90 today, with Heat Indices topping out in the
upper 90s to low 100s. The same is expected for Sunday. Low
temperatures in the low to mid 70s expected along the I-10 corridor
and north, mid 70s to near 80 south to the coast tonight and again
Saturday night.

A Low Risk of Rip Currents is expected into the coming week.
/16

...Monday Through Friday Night...

Upper ridging across the southeast U.S. attempts to build in
through Wednesday of next week as a series of weak shortwaves
transit areas to our north. Overall rain chances gradually
diminish, particularly as we get into late week and the weekend as
upper ridging strengthens across the southern and central CONUS.
Expect scattered to locally numerous coverage of showers and
storms Monday, particularly in the vicinity of the seabreeze
boundary, with proceeding days seeing more isolated to scattered
coverage. Locally higher coverage is possible nearer the seabreeze
boundary. Ample CAPE and weak shear any given day will favor
pulse type ordinary cells that could become strong during peak
heating each day producing gusty winds, small hail, heavy
rainfall, and frequent lightning. Afternoon highs begin to
increase into the lower 90`s most days, perhaps even mid 90`s by
mid to late week. Overnight lows remain warm in the lower to
middle 70`s each night. A Moderate risk of rip currents remains in
place Monday through Wednesday. MM/25

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of the night.
Some patchy fog will be possible across areas north of I-10
tonight bringing MVFR visbys to some locations. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will develop along the coastal counties tomorrow
morning and once again spread inland and increase in coverage by
midday into the afternoon. Temporary reductions in visbys to IFR
or even LIFR will be possible with the strongest of storms. Winds
will remain light out of the south becoming variable in the
vicinity of any storms. Storms will likely subside by the early
evening giving way to VFR conditions tomorrow night.

BB-8

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

A light to at times moderate onshore flow is expected through the
forecast. Overnight convection developing over open Gulf waters may
contain waterspouts in the late night/early morning period.
Otherwise, no impacts are expected other than locally higher winds
and seas being possible near thunderstorms. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      89  73  89  75  90  75  89  75 /  80  30  80  40  80  20  80  20
Pensacola   88  77  88  79  88  79  88  78 /  70  40  80  50  80  20  70  30
Destin      89  79  89  80  89  80  90  80 /  60  50  80  50  80  20  70  30
Evergreen   91  71  91  72  90  72  91  72 /  80  30  80  20  80  10  80  10
Waynesboro  89  70  91  72  93  72  92  72 /  80  20  80  20  80  10  70  10
Camden      87  69  88  72  89  72  89  73 /  80  30  80  30  80  10  70  10
Crestview   91  72  90  74  90  73  91  72 /  80  30  80  30  90  10  80  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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