038
FXUS64 KMOB 041750
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1250 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

...New Discussion, Marine...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

Nobody move or we might scare the nice weather away. The benign
dry weather shall continue until we say otherwise and that appears
to be at least through next week. A rather impressive upper
trough for early September will remain in place across the eastern
CONUS. While this upper trough will likely break down some
tomorrow and Saturday, a re- enforcing shortwave will help bring
drier air back to the area Sunday into Monday. Given current
guidance this could be some of the driest air we have seen as
dewpoints might crater into the low 50s to upper 40s across
interior portions of the area. Unfortunately, the coast may stay
a little more moist as a stalled frontal boundary will be
lingering just offshore and how far south this boundary makes it
will dictate how dry the coast gets. Further offshore the front
goes the drier everyone will be. If the front hangs up along the
coastline, then some scattered showers and storms may begin to
pop up by midweek. Other than that the only concern may be for
some fire weather with such dry conditions. Given we have a few
days to watch trends, I went rather conservative with the
dewpoints but could easily see dewpoints next week in the 40s
leading to relative humidity values in the 20 to 30% (Normally we
are around 60-70%). This coupled with the fairly dry couple of
weeks may allow for some burning concerns to arise. Other than
that expect temperatures mainly to be in the upper 80s to low 90s
and lows to remain in the low to mid 60s through most of the
forecast. &&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

VFR flight category prevails across the region through Friday.
Winds remain light out of the southwest at around 5 knots today,
becoming southerly around 5 to 10 knots Friday. Light and variable
winds can be expected overnight tonight. MM/25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

A mostly light diurnal flow will continue through Saturday with
an onshore flow developing in the afternoon then becoming offshore
at night. A northerly flow follows for Sunday and strengthens Sunday
night before diminishing on Monday. A moderate to occasionally
strong northeasterly flow develops Monday night then diminishes
somewhat on Tuesday as it becomes easterly. Will likely need to
monitor the Monday through Tuesday timeframe for small craft
advisory conditions and small craft will likely need to exercise
caution during that time.  BB-8

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      71  91  70  91  71  89  66  85 /   0   0   0  10  10  10  10  10
Pensacola   73  90  73  91  74  91  69  87 /   0   0   0  10   0  10  10  10
Destin      74  88  75  89  75  90  71  87 /   0   0   0  10   0  10  10  10
Evergreen   68  96  69  94  69  90  63  87 /   0   0   0  10   0  10   0  10
Waynesboro  69  94  68  91  68  86  62  83 /   0   0   0  20  10  10  10  10
Camden      70  95  71  92  69  85  62  85 /   0   0   0  10  10  10   0  10
Crestview   68  93  69  93  69  90  65  87 /   0   0   0  10   0  10   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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