512
FXUS64 KMOB 181624
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1124 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1051 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

 - A MODERATE Risk of rip currents and elevated surf heights of
   2-3 feet continues through this afternoon.

 - Scattered, mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms are
   expected Saturday and Sunday. A few storms could be strong with
   strong wind gusts the main risks.

 - Above normal temperatures push heat indices into the 100-106
   degree range Saturday through at least Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1051 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Rather quiet out there today thanks to nearby high pressure,
supported by a dominant closed ridge anchored over the southern
US. The proximity of the ridge and surface high just to our
northwest has promoted the introduction of slightly drier air to
the area that we noticed yesterday. GOES-16 derived precipitable
water illustrates this slug of drier air over the northern Gulf
coast states, and given upper-level subsidence/suppression, will
be hard to find any shower activity at all today. With the dry air
in place, we`ll be greeted with yet again strong afternoon PBL
mixing, helping to drop dewpoints down into the mid 60`s, to even
some lower 60`s for interior areas which in turn, will reduce any
impactful heat indices.

Now going into the weekend, we are greeted with a steady change,
mostly in the form of increasing moisture and rain chances yet
again. Ongoing just to our east is a noticeable upper-level low,
accompanied by anomalously high moisture producing ongoing
showers and storms over the Florida panhandle. This upper-low will
continue to steadily retrograde west into the western Gulf this
weekend while the aforementioned ridge center breaks down some.
This will promote a steady increase in mid-altantic moisture
southwest into the northern Gulf coast states. Starting with
Saturday, RRFS/REFS and HRRR clustering + trends continue to
indicate this 1) breakdown in heights and 2) increase in
tropospheric moisture will support diurnally-forced convective
initiation across west Georgia/east-central Alabama. This may be
something to watch, as upper-level mean flow is driving out of the
northeast to the southwest, as if convective coverage is deeper
and cold pooling aids in the development of a south or
southwestward surging outflow boundary, we could see a
disorganized cluster get it`s act together on the I-85 corridor
and surge south into southern Alabama or northwestern Florida.
Could see a locally strong storm out of these, but not getting a
tremendously strong indication of dry low/mid-level air to support
downward severe wind gusts but, any anchored to cold-pool
boundaries could get gusty at times. Something to watch as how far
south and the coverage we see depends on upstream coverage
early/mid Saturday afternoon.

Sunday, the proximity of the upper-level low being just offshore
our coastal waters, attendant PVA all fueled by diurnal
destabilization will be plenty to ignite scattered to numerous
showers and storms, especially where there is the greatest
localized forcing (specific to the developing coastal seabreeze).
For now, coverage in the 40-70% looks good from about Baldwin
county, east across the Florida Panhandle but any localized
boundary intersections could support a stronger updraft or two but
again, not seeing any strong indications of severe weather yet, as
a lot of this moisture being pulled from the mid-atlantic
moistens up the vertical profile. producing long/skinny CAPE
profiles and less in the way of an entrainment/damaging wind
issue. Something we`ll closely monitor, however.

Monday into the rest of next week, we stay parked underneath a
moist, summer-like environment within a zone of upper-level
weakness, even as the upper-low weakens and gets picked up to the
northeast along the Atlantic coast by a great lakes shortwave
trough. This will, yep you guessed it, allow the ridge to build
back into the southern and southeastern US. That in turn will try
to reduce rain chances later in the week but overall, very
summer-like week next week but not seeing any strong indications
of excessive/extreme heat concerns at this time. KLG

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1051 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Expect VFR conditions for all area terminals through the forecast
period. Surface winds will remain light/weak today through
tonight. KLG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1051 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

A mainly light diurnal flow prevails through early next week with
winds trending to an occasionally moderate onshore flow each
afternoon then offshore at night. Waves and seas will respond by
weakening today dropping from 2 to 3 feet this afternoon to 1 to 2
feet tonight through the weekend and into next week. KLG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      92  70  94  71 /   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   91  74  93  76 /   0   0  10  10
Destin      90  76  90  77 /   0   0  10  10
Evergreen   95  69  96  70 /   0   0  30  20
Waynesboro  95  70  97  70 /   0   0   0  10
Camden      96  71  97  70 /   0   0  30  20
Crestview   93  70  94  71 /   0   0  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$