525
FXUS64 KMOB 171751
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1251 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

VFR conditions are expected to continue through Tuesday morning.
We do expect scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA to develop primarily
across southeast MS, southwest AL, and into portions of the
western FL panhandle through the afternoon hours. We kept VCTS
mentioned in the KMOB/KBFM/KPNS/KJKA TAF this afternoon and will
monitor radar trends for potential amendments. Localized MVFR to
IFR visibility restrictions and wind gusts in excess of 30 kt will
be possible near the stronger storms. Convection should gradually
decrease in coverage early this evening (after 00Z) although
isolated SHRA/TSRA may linger into the evening hours. /21

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

The Gulf is ready for business as deep southeasterly flow
continues to pump rich Gulf moisture northward. A series of
inverted troughs will work their way around the northern periphery
of a larger gyre centered over central America. This semi-
persistent feature is know as the Central American Gyre and
typically set up around this time of year and can be the spawning
grounds for some early season tropical mischief. Spoiler alert,
the NHC has highlighted this area for potential for tropical
development over the next 5 days. The good news is for our area
that even if we do get our first system of the year, it would
likely move into Mexico or extreme southeast Texas. The bad news
is that we will be in a bit of a funnel of deep Gulf moisture that
will setup between the Gyre and the large upper ridge to our
east. In this channel of moisture, PWATS will range from 2 inches
to as high as 2.5 inches or more. With this sort of moisture and
pattern in place, its almost always a good bet on a rather soggy
week. The next wave of precip will enter the area bringing widely
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms by midmorning into
the early afternoon today. The best chance for rain will continue
to be across southeastern Mississippi into coastal southwestern
Alabama where better low level convergence will be present. The
biggest issue will be the potential for locally heavy rainfall
given the rather deep tropical moisture. Storms will be highly
efficient in producing heavy rainfall; however, nebulous forcing,
dry antecedent conditions and no true low level focus for storms
will likely keep any flooding localized at least for now. While
some localized flooding cannot be ruled out, it will likely be
confined to poor drainage areas and urban zones.

Tuesday will bring yet another round of rain and storms; however,
rain will likely be more confined to the coast as the upper ridge is
able to build in some over our interior areas. This will also be in
response to whatever developing system near Texas does as it draws
moisture further west out of our area. Expect some rain chances
especially along and south of I-10 during the day on Tuesday but most
of the area will remain dry. This is only temporarily as there will
be plenty of opportunities for more rain in the coming week.
Along with the increased rain chances, waves will be on
the general increase leading to a HIGH risk of rip currents
beginning today and eventually large breaking waves at the beaches
leading to a high surf advisory. BB/03

&&


.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 7 AM CDT Thursday for
     ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 7 AM CDT Thursday for
     FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Tuesday to 7 AM CDT Thursday for
     GMZ650-655-670-675.

&&

$$

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