Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
562 FXUS64 KMOB 160502 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1202 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New Aviation, Discussion, Marine... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Dry weather conditions continue to prevail through Friday as upper ridging remains in place. Upper ridging gradually breaks down Friday night into Saturday as upper troughing transits the central into south-central CONUS. Forecast guidance remains variable on the exact amplitude, tilt, and timing of the troughs passage which will have an impact on timing and potential intensity of rainfall Saturday into Sunday. Right now it appears the most likely period for isolated to scattered showers and storms will exist from the early morning hours Sunday through Sunday afternoon. A cold front pushes through the area Sunday evening once again bringing dry weather back into the forecast Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures will remain well above normal through early next week for afternoon highs. Middle to upper 80`s can be expected through Saturday with lower to middle 80`s Sunday into Monday, perhaps warming back up by Tuesday into the middle 80`s. Overnight temperatures will be a bit more variable, gradually warming each night from upper 50`s and lower 60`s tonight to middle to upper 60`s by Saturday night. In the wake of the cold front, we return to the lower to middle 50`s over the interior and middle 50`s to lower 60`s nearer the coast Sunday night through Tuesday night. For folks heading out to our Alabama and western Florida panhandle beaches this weekend our rip current risk will be steadily increasing. We go from a Low risk today and tonight to a Moderate risk for the day Friday into Friday night. By Saturday, a High risk for rip currents will be present, likely lasting through the day Sunday. In the wake of the cold front, our rip current risk will decrease Monday to a Moderate risk. MM/25 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR flight category prevails across the region the rest of the night through the day today. Calm winds through daybreak become northeasterly by mid morning around 5 knots. Coastal counties become easterly to southeasterly this afternoon around 5 to 10 knots. Winds calm once again after sunset this evening. MM/25 && .MARINE... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 A light mainly southeasterly flow develops this afternoon, with winds gradually increasing Friday into Saturday along with building seas. A light to moderate southeasterly flow Saturday shifts southerly to southwesterly Sunday ahead of a cold front. Offshore flow Sunday evening in the wake of the cold front becomes onshore once again as we head into early next week. MM/25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 61 87 62 85 66 84 68 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 40 50 Pensacola 65 86 68 83 70 83 72 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 30 50 Destin 67 85 69 82 69 82 70 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 50 Evergreen 57 91 59 88 61 88 64 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 30 60 Waynesboro 57 88 57 87 61 86 66 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 50 50 Camden 58 88 60 87 63 86 65 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 40 60 Crestview 57 89 60 86 61 85 63 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 60 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob