262
FXUS64 KMOB 030619
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
119 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 107 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

 - HIGH risk of rip currents Wednesday through Saturday for the
   coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. Wave runup and
   overwash are a concern along the coastline mid to late week as
   the surf quickly builds to 4-5 feet.

 - Small craft conditions are expected through Friday.

 - After a few dry days, rain chances quickly increase for the
   weekend. Heavy rainfall, which could lead to flooding concerns,
   will be possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 107 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

High pressure will continue to build across the Appalachians
through Friday before pushing into the western Atlantic by the
weekend. This is allowing for a cold air damming (CAD) pattern to
setup across the Southeast US through Friday. The leading edge of
this CAD is a backdoor cold front that is currently located over
our eastern-most counties as of midnight this morning. This front,
and any lingering showers and storms, should continue pushing to
the southwest throughout the overnight and into the morning hours.
Anomalously dry air for this time of year will begin filtering in
from the northeast by the afternoon hours. In fact, by tonight,
PWATs may range from 0.5-0.8 inches (approx 2.5 standard
deviations below normal in some spots) and dew points should
plummet into the upper 40s to low 50s for much of the area. These
dry conditions (along with little to no rain chances) should
continue through at least Thursday night. Temperatures will also
be a few degrees cooler than average, with highs in the low to mid
80s and lows ranging from the upper 50s to low 60s inland to the
mid to upper 60s along the coast.

The pattern quickly changes on Friday as a non-tropical surface low
attempts to form along the front south of Louisiana. As this low
lifts northward, deep moisture will also surge to the north,
bringing PWATs of around 2 inches back into the area by late Friday.
This will help to bring multiple rounds of showers and storms back
into the forecast for the weekend. Not anticipating any severe
weather at this time due to shear values remaining very low. That
being said, storms would likely be slow-moving, and with very high
PWATs in place, storms will likely be efficient rainfall producers.
If any boundaries are able to set up and storms are able to train
over the same locations, then a heavy rainfall/flash flooding threat
may materialize for this weekend, especially considering the copious
amounts of rainfall we have seen over the past couple weeks. We will
monitor trends closely over the coming days.

The other big concern we have is with regards to beach conditions.
Strong easterly winds are expected to develop later this morning,
becoming more southeasterly by Thursday. This will allow for our rip
current risk to quickly rise to a High Risk today, continuing
through at least Saturday. We will also have to monitor for the
potential for High Surf, especially as we get to the Thursday
night/Friday timeframe. Right now, guidance suggests surf heights to
around 4-5 feet, but any further increases would likely result in
the issuance of a High Surf Advisory. Lastly, although coastal
flooding is not anticipated at this time due to a more easterly wind
direction, the timing of the tidal cycle combined with the stronger
winds and high surf may promote overwash into some of our trouble
spots such as Fort Pickens and Dauphin Island, possibly resulting in
some localized minor inundation. /96

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 107 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Showers and storms continue to slide from east to west along the
coastline as of 05z. While VFR conditions generally prevail across
the area, brief periods of MVFR/IFR conditions are expected near any
storms overnight. Winds gradually turn easterly and increase through
the early morning hours with gusts of 20-25 knots possible
throughout the day. Ceilings fall to MVFR in the pre-dawn hours and
should rebound back to VFR by the early to mid afternoon hours. 07/mb

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 112 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Northerly winds this afternoon will become more easterly by
tonight as a boundary slowly pushes further offshore. Small craft
conditions develop early Wednesday in the strengthening easterly
flow and persist through Thursday across the bays, waterways, and
Gulf waters while continuing through Friday for the far offshore
Gulf waters. Onshore flow develops Friday through the weekend.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible
each afternoon and elevated winds and seas will be possible with
any storms. BB-8

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      70  80  65  83 /  60  30  10   0
Pensacola   71  81  67  83 /  60  30   0  10
Destin      71  82  68  83 /  70  30   0  10
Evergreen   66  80  59  83 /  60  10   0   0
Waynesboro  68  80  59  83 /  40  10   0   0
Camden      66  80  59  82 /  40  10   0   0
Crestview   66  81  60  84 /  70  20   0   0

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      80  64  82  65 /  20  10   0  10
Pensacola   81  67  83  70 /  30   0   0  20
Destin      83  68  84  70 /  20   0   0   0
Evergreen   81  57  83  59 /  10   0   0   0
Waynesboro  80  61  82  60 /  10   0   0   0
Camden      81  58  82  59 /   0   0   0   0
Crestview   81  59  84  61 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through
     Saturday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through
     Saturday evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 11 AM CDT
     Thursday for GMZ630-631-633.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT
     Thursday for GMZ632.

     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 11 AM CDT
     Thursday for GMZ634>636.

     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 8 PM CDT
     Thursday for GMZ650-655.

     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 5 PM CDT
     Friday for GMZ670-675.

&&

$$