663
FXUS64 KMOB 161728
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1228 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

An upper level trough will remain over the Mississippi Valley, with
ridging over the western CONUS and the subtropical ridge to our
east, with the forecast area under southwest flow aloft. At the
surface, southerly flow will also persist, with the deep layer flow
allowing PWs to climb to near 2 inches. Meanwhile, weaker shortwaves
will rotate through the southwest flow aloft, lending additional
forcing for storms that are able to lift off any surface
boundaries. The pattern will remain largely unchanged through
Thursday, as the initial trough becomes absorbed in the longwave
pattern and a second trough quickly digs into the Plains and then
moves eastward. This means we`ll see a rinse and repeat of what
we`ve seen the last couple of days, with storms developing along
the seabreeze during the morning and then lifting northward
through the day. We`ll also likely have outflow boundaries from
storms to our west, and with little in the way of subsidence,
coverage will be scattered to numerous each afternoon. There may
be slightly higher coverage on Tuesday, though confidence is low.
Any storm that`s able to maintain their updrafts will be capable
of producing gusty winds up to 40 mph and small hail.

The upper ridge to our west seems to finally push the upper
troughing eastward on Friday, before settling over the region this
weekend. After another day of scattered to numerous convection on
Friday, drier conditions will take hold for Saturday and Sunday.
Scattered storms are still anticipated, but the influence of the
ridge should provide for more limited coverage. Unfortunately that
will also translate into even hotter conditions to set in. We`ll
remain seasonably warm through the week, with highs climbing into
the upper 80s to lower 90s each afternoon. By the weekend, temps
will approach the mid to upper 90s in some spots. Looking ahead,
heat indices will exceed 100 degrees, with a potential for
reaching heat advisory criteria for some spots.

Beach Forecast - The rip current risk remains LOW through Tuesday
and increases to a MODERATE on Wednesday and Thursday. The latest
rip current probability guidance continues to trend toward a
MODERATE risk by Friday. /73

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

VFR conditions prevail for most locations this afternoon with a
few spots seeing showers and thunderstorms across the area that
may result in temporary reductions in ceiling and/or visibility.
VFR conditions once again prevail tonight with any lingering
storms being focused offshore or near the immediate coast through
daybreak. Expect isolated showers and storms to once again develop
mid to late Wednesday morning. Winds remain out of the south to
south-southwest at 5 to 10 knots. MM/25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 216 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Light onshore flow to persist through most of this week.
Occasionally moderate southerly flow is possible, especially in
the nearshore waters which will be influenced by the diurnal land
and sea breeze pattern. Winds and seas will likely be temporarily
higher in and near the vicinity of storms. The environment also
looks to be supportive of waterspouts in morning activity near the
coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      74  89  74  89  75  91  74  92 /  20  80  10  70  20  70  20  60
Pensacola   78  88  79  89  78  90  77  91 /  30  70  20  60  20  60  20  60
Destin      79  89  80  89  80  90  79  91 /  30  70  20  60  30  70  30  50
Evergreen   71  91  72  91  72  93  72  94 /  20  80  10  60  10  70  20  50
Waynesboro  71  92  71  92  72  93  72  94 /  20  70  10  70  10  60  20  50
Camden      72  89  71  89  72  91  72  91 /  30  70  10  70  10  60  20  50
Crestview   73  90  72  91  73  91  72  94 /  20  80  10  70  20  70  20  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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