639
FXUS64 KMOB 240233
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
833 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 809 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

  - Dense fog continues to develop across the area and will result
    in hazardous travel tonight through late morning Christmas
    Eve. Dense marine fog will likely persist through the entire
    day.

  - Well above average temperatures are expected all week,
    including Christmas Day. A cold front brings an end to this
    warmth Sunday night.

  - A moderate risk of rip currents will be in place through
    Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 809 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Dense fog is developing now especially along the coast as dewpoint
depression fall to zero. This fog will continue to develop inland
over the next few hours. Visibilities will rapidly drop to one
quarter of a mile or less and result in very hazardous travel
conditions. This dense fog will become widespread areawide by late
this evening and impact all areas through at least mid morning on
Christmas Eve. Over Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound, dense
marine fog (less than one mile) will likely persist through the
day so hazardous boating conditions will continue and may not lift
for several days as middle to upper 60s dewpoints advect over the
cooler waters in the middle 50s. Dewpoint-water temperature
spreads greater than 10 degrees usually support dense sea fog less
than one quarter of a mile. Therefore the marine dense fog
advisory will continue through the day tomorrow and will likely be
extended for several more days as the pattern remains stagnant.

Dense fog will likely again develop over land areas during the
evening hours of Christmas Eve and result in visibilities again
dropping to one quarter of a mile or less. This again will result
in very hazardous driving conditions and may disrupt evening
holiday celebrations. These conditions will likely persist through
late morning Christmas Day before mixing out around midday. After
the fog dissipates, expect an unseasonably warm and dry Christmas
Day with high temperature reaching again into the middle to upper
70s along with humid conditions. This may encourage many to visit
our local beaches over the next few days. If you are planning to
visit the beach, remember that there will continue to be a
moderate risk of rip currents. The beaches will be great to visit,
just use caution if planning to enter the surf.

The current forecast has been updated to extend the dense fog
potential through late morning tomorrow and to bump low
temperatures up a few degrees along the coast. Otherwise the
forecast looks on track and no additional updates are planned
until the regular overnight forecast issuance. /JLH


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1259 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

An anomalously strong upper ridge has built in across much of the
CONUS. This ridge will be the dominant synoptic feature over our
area through Saturday before finally breaking down on Sunday as
longwave troughing digs across the eastern US. At the surface,
high pressure building overhead is allowing for a light southerly
to southwesterly flow to develop, helping to advect in a warm and
humid airmass from the Gulf. Although the proximity to the ridge
aloft and surface high will keep us dry through the remainder of
the week, the environment looks primed for dense fog to become a
common occurrence each night starting tonight and lingering
through potentially Saturday night. The first of likely several
Dense Fog Advisories this week has been issued and will be in
effect for all land areas from 9 PM tonight through 10 AM
Wednesday for visibilities dropping to less than a quarter mile.
In addition, a Marine Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for all
local bays and sounds, and nearshore Gulf waters out 20 NM from 6
PM this evening through 10 AM Wednesday morning for visibilities
dropping to below 1 nautical mile. Considering that dew points
tomorrow are forecast to rise into the low to mid 60s during the
daytime hours, moving over water temps in the upper 50s, cannot
rule out the possibility of dense sea fog lingering throughout the
entire day tomorrow for Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound.

We will be very warm for this time of year for the remainder of the
week and into the upcoming weekend. Highs through Sunday will top
out in the mid to upper 70s (low 70s along the immediate coast) and
lows through Saturday night will only drop into the 50s.
Climatologically speaking, these temperatures are roughly 10-15
degrees above average over coastal counties and an impressive 15-20
degrees above average for interior counties. Next chance of rain
comes on Sunday out ahead of a strong cold front that should pass
through the area Sunday night. Temperatures early next week may
drop by nearly 20 to 30 degrees from where we were on Saturday! A
Moderate Risk of rip currents will continue through Wednesday,
becoming a low risk on Thursday and through the remainder of the
week. /96

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 809 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Dense fog will develop shortly over the TAF sites with
visibilities likely dropping to IFR in the next hour or two, then
to VLIFR by late evening. These conditions are expected to persist
through mid to late morning tomorrow before rapidly improving to
VFR as the fog and low stratus mix out. Winds will remain light
and variable through Wednesday. /JLH

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1259 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

A light easterly to southeasterly flow will continue through
tonight, becoming light and variable Wednesday and Thursday. Light
southwesterly flow develops Thursday night and continues through
the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Additionally, it
is becoming increasingly likely that dense sea fog will develop
each night starting tonight through the remainder of the week
across local area bays and sounds, as well as the nearshore Gulf
waters. Visibilities will likely drop to below 1 NM in many areas.
/96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      59  77  53  75 /   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   60  74  55  73 /   0   0   0   0
Destin      59  73  56  72 /   0   0  10   0
Evergreen   55  78  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  57  77  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
Camden      54  76  51  76 /   0   0   0   0
Crestview   57  79  50  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Wednesday for ALZ051>060-
     261>266.

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Wednesday for FLZ201>206.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Wednesday for MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM CST Wednesday for GMZ630>632.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ633>636-650-
     655.

&&

$$