164
FXUS64 KMOB 031241
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
741 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 721 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

 - HIGH risk of rip currents through Saturday night for the
   coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. Surf builds to
   5-7 feet through Friday. High surf combined with high tide
   will lead to overwash and minor inundation issues along the
   coast on Thursday and Friday.

 - Small craft conditions persist through Saturday.

 - Increasing rain chances this weekend with heavy rainfall
   leading to more flooding concerns.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 721 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Right on cue, the winds starting cranking up along the coastline
in the pre-dawn hours this morning with gusts of 25-30mph already
noted at many beaches. These gusty conditions will continue along
the coast throughout the day as easterly flow strengthens over the
Gulf.

Conditions at the beaches are expected to go downhill quickly over
the next few hours with the surf and rip currents progressively
getting worse. We are already seeing the surf kicking up on some
of the webcams at our Florida panhandle beaches this morning. A
HIGH risk of rip currents is in effect now through Saturday night
before conditions begin to improve. High surf is expected by late
tonight with 5 foot breakers expected overnight and into Thursday
with 6-7 foot breakers expected at the beaches on Friday. Overwash
and minor inundation of portions of Dauphin Island and Fort
Pickens is expected Thursday and Friday due to the combination of
high surf and high tide. If the winds manage to turn southeasterly
on Friday, we will also have to contend with the possibility of
minor inundation in the northern reaches of Mobile Bay in the
afternoon hours coinciding with high tide. If those water levels
are realized, there may be splash over issues on the Causeway over
Mobile Bay at the front end of rush hour on Friday. 07/mb

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 107 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

High pressure will continue to build across the Appalachians
through Friday before pushing into the western Atlantic by the
weekend. This is allowing for a cold air damming (CAD) pattern to
setup across the Southeast US through Friday. The leading edge of
this CAD is a backdoor cold front that is currently located over
our eastern-most counties as of midnight this morning. This front,
and any lingering showers and storms, should continue pushing to
the southwest throughout the overnight and into the morning hours.
Anomalously dry air for this time of year will begin filtering in
from the northeast by the afternoon hours. In fact, by tonight,
PWATs may range from 0.5-0.8 inches (approx 2.5 standard
deviations below normal in some spots) and dew points should
plummet into the upper 40s to low 50s for much of the area. These
dry conditions (along with little to no rain chances) should
continue through at least Thursday night. Temperatures will also
be a few degrees cooler than average, with highs in the low to mid
80s and lows ranging from the upper 50s to low 60s inland to the
mid to upper 60s along the coast.

The pattern quickly changes on Friday as a non-tropical surface low
attempts to form along the front south of Louisiana. As this low
lifts northward, deep moisture will also surge to the north,
bringing PWATs of around 2 inches back into the area by late Friday.
This will help to bring multiple rounds of showers and storms back
into the forecast for the weekend. Not anticipating any severe
weather at this time due to shear values remaining very low. That
being said, storms would likely be slow-moving, and with very high
PWATs in place, storms will likely be efficient rainfall producers.
If any boundaries are able to set up and storms are able to train
over the same locations, then a heavy rainfall/flash flooding threat
may materialize for this weekend, especially considering the copious
amounts of rainfall we have seen over the past couple weeks. We will
monitor trends closely over the coming days.

The other big concern we have is with regards to beach conditions.
Strong easterly winds are expected to develop later this morning,
becoming more southeasterly by Thursday. This will allow for our rip
current risk to quickly rise to a High Risk today, continuing
through at least Saturday. We will also have to monitor for the
potential for High Surf, especially as we get to the Thursday
night/Friday timeframe. Right now, guidance suggests surf heights to
around 4-5 feet, but any further increases would likely result in
the issuance of a High Surf Advisory. Lastly, although coastal
flooding is not anticipated at this time due to a more easterly wind
direction, the timing of the tidal cycle combined with the stronger
winds and high surf may promote overwash into some of our trouble
spots such as Fort Pickens and Dauphin Island, possibly resulting in
some localized minor inundation. /96

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 721 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Ceilings will fall to MVFR over the next 2 hours, but should
rebound back to VFR by mid afternoon. Easterly winds gradually
continue to increase with gusts of 20-25 knots expected
throughout the day at the TAF sites. 07/mb

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 721 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Easterly flow prevails through Thursday. Small craft conditions
have developed this morning in the strengthening easterly flow
and will persist through Friday across the bays, waterways, and
Gulf waters. Onshore flow develops Friday through early next week.
Expect locally higher winds and seas near thunderstorms. 07/mb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      81  64  83  65 /  10  10   0  10
Pensacola   83  67  84  69 /  10  10   0   0
Destin      83  68  84  70 /  10   0   0   0
Evergreen   82  57  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  82  60  84  60 /  10  10   0   0
Camden      81  57  83  59 /   0   0   0   0
Crestview   83  59  86  61 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 AM CDT Saturday
     for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Surf Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 AM CDT Saturday
     for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for GMZ630>633.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for GMZ634-655-675.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ635-636.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT Friday night for GMZ650-
     670.

&&

$$