141
FXUS64 KMOB 262321
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
521 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 521 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

 - Strong offshore flow will create hazardous conditions for small
   craft across portions of the marine area Wednesday night into
   Friday morning.

 - There is a moderate risk of life threatening rip currents at
   area beaches Wednesday, then a high risk is anticipated this
   weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1201 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

An upper level low will continue to spin over the Great Lakes
region, with the axis of its trough extending through the
Mississippi Valley. Southwest flow persists aloft, helping to stream
mid level cloud cover across the area. With the cloud cover, temps
will only rise a few more degrees, with highs warming into the mid
60s to lower 70s. The axis of the trough will move eastward tonight,
with flow aloft steadily becoming northwesterly by morning.
Overnight lows will fall into the lower 30s over our interior areas
to the lower 40s along the coast. After a cold start to
Thanksgiving, we won`t warm up too much, with highs struggling to
rise above 60. The northwesterly flow will persist through the
vertical column, with much drier air filtering across the region.
With high pressure in filtering into the region, expect mild
conditions through the day.

Upper ridging will build into the Plains on Friday, shifting the
trough into New England. This ridge will weaken quite a bit as it
moves eastward, with flow over the local area becoming zonal Friday
night. At the surface, high pressure will move through the Ohio and
TN Valleys , with surface winds slowly veering to the east. Another
trough will dig into the Plains Saturday night, and surface
cyclogenesis is expected to occur over the Central Plains as the
trough ejects from the Rockies. Flow aloft will become
southwestward during the day Saturday, filtering moisture ahead of
the cold front. The trough, weakening with time, will quickly move
into the Great Lakes by Sunday, swinging the cold front through
during the morning hours. Although we`ll have some southwesterly
flow head of the front, moisture will still remain limited and much
of the forcing will be well to the north. So, this will really
amount to scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm, with chances
decreasing further east.

The front will generally stall in the vicinity of the area on
Monday, as flow aloft becomes more zonal. Meanwhile, a third trough
will dig into the Desert Southwest on Monday and quickly move to the
east, exiting the region on Wednesday. The stalled front will lift
northward Monday night, with warm advection showers possible during
the predawn hours, followed by more numerous showers during the day
Tuesday as the cold front moves through. The airmass will remain
relatively stable through the period, with limited moisture return
to overcome the dry and cold airmass currently in place. With this
being the third trough of the period, moisture will at least be more
present to warrant higher chances of rain than with the system on
Sunday. Regardless, not anticipating much in the way of impacts at
this point, at least over land.

For anyone traveling to the beach for the holiday, there is a
moderate risk for rip currents today and we`ll be back into the High
risk over the weekend. So remember to check the local beach flags
and local conditions before heading out. /73

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

VFR conditions are expected through Thursday. Northwesterly winds
5-10 knots become northerly 10-15 knots on Thursday. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1201 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

A moderate to strong offshore flow will persist through Thursday
morning. The offshore flow diminishes somewhat on Thursday then
strengthens mainly over the open Gulf waters Thursday night. A
northeasterly flow develops on Friday then becomes southeasterly on
Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for most of the
marine area Wednesday night then tapers to over the 20-60 nm
portion for late Thursday morning through Friday morning. May need
to consider adding the near shore waters to the Small Craft
Advisory late Thursday night into early Friday morning. /73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      39  60  36  57 /   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   43  60  41  58 /   0   0   0   0
Destin      45  62  42  59 /   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   35  60  31  56 /   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  34  57  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
Camden      33  55  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
Crestview   36  60  33  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM CST Thursday for GMZ630>632.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST Thursday for GMZ650-655.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Friday for GMZ670-675.

&&

$$