626
FXUS64 KMOB 201127
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
627 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 626 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

 - Scattered, mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms are
   expected Sunday into the beginning of next week. A few storms
   could be strong with gusty winds being the main threat.

 - Above normal temperatures push heat indices into the 100-106
   degree range through the beginning of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 626 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Patchy fog which has developed across portions of south central
Alabama and the interior western Florida panhandle will dissipate
by mid morning. The forecast is otherwise on track. /29

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

The upper high that gave us dry weather over the past few days is
weakening over the southern Great Plains. Meanwhile, a upper low
continues to retrograde and is currently near the western coast of
Florida giving the area enhanced northeasterly flow overhead. The
center of the upper low will continue off the coast of Florida and
will slightly strengthen through the the rest of the weekend. The
upper low is aiding in increasing PWATs back above normal thanks
to easterly flow funneling in Atlantic moisture. A more typical
daily precipitation pattern is expected for Sunday through
potentially Tuesday bringing isolated to scattered storms over the
marine areas in the morning then moves inland for the afternoon
with the highest coverage closer to the coast.

The upper low gets reabsorbed into the mean flow a little quicker
by Tuesday which would allow for the ridge to try and build back
into the area from the west and a slow moving potential cold front
by mid to end of next week. Pops largely decrease by Tuesday into
Wednesday with just some isolated chances where there is some
increased convergence/moisture along the afternoon seabreeze,
which with northerly surface flow, this feature would be more
pinned to the coast than typical. We switch into northwest flow
which drops PWATs back below normal to 1.2-1.5 inches by Thursday
and into next weekend dropping off our precipitation chances.

The area will continue to have above normal temperatures through mid
to late next week. Expect highs in the mid to upper 90s inland and
low 90s along the immediate coast. Afternoon dewpoints should be in
the upper 60s to low 70s for most inland areas, potentially even the
mid 60s in southeast Mississippi where the highest temperatures are
expected Sunday and Monday. Heat indices stay below advisory
criteria in the 100-106 range through Wednesday even with the
temperatures being well above normal. The area still gets some
overnight relief even with low temperatures above normal in low 70s
inland and the mid 70s along the immediate coast. The previously
mentioned potential cold front towards the end of next week would
definitely be a welcomed sight after such a warm September so far.
Something to watch, but this would bring temperatures/humidity down
and put low temperatures back into the mid to upper 60s.

...BEACH FORECAST...

For the beaches in southern Alabama and the northwest Florida
Panhandle, the rip current risk is LOW through mid next week and
surf heights remain generally 1 to 2 feet outside of any storms.
Guidance shows marine winds increasing by the Wednesday/Thursday
timeframe which would increase the rip current risk and surf heights
for mid to end of next week.

SS/97

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Patchy fog which has developed across portions of south central
Alabama and the interior western Florida panhandle will dissipate
by mid morning. Isolated to possible scattered showers and storms
are expected to develop this afternoon and linger into the early
evening before dissipating. A light northwest to north wind
develops this morning, then switches to a southerly direction near
the coast this afternoon. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

A mainly light diurnal flow prevails through Wednesday with winds
trending to an onshore flow each afternoon then offshore at night. A
moderate to occasionally strong northeasterly flow develops late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning and continues into Thursday
night. Seas will be 1 to 2 feet, then increase to 2 to 3 feet on
Thursday. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      94  73  93  73 /  30  10  40  10
Pensacola   92  76  91  76 /  50  30  30  20
Destin      89  76  90  76 /  40  30  30  20
Evergreen   95  70  95  68 /  20  20  30  20
Waynesboro  97  71  96  69 /  10  10  30  20
Camden      95  72  95  70 /  10  10  30  20
Crestview   93  70  93  70 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$