316
FXUS64 KMOB 302329
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
629 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

 - Shower and thunderstorm development continues through Sunday,
   especially over portions of south central Alabama. Storms
   could produce heavy rainfall, which could lead to localized
   flash flooding, along with gusty winds.

 - A Moderate Risk of Rip Currents continues through Sunday.

 - Heat indices rise to around 100 each afternoon into early next
   week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Have updated mainly to adjust pops to slight chance to chance over
interior areas early this evening gradually diminishing to mostly
dry conditions overnight. Made other minor adjustments. /29

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Through Tuesday...An upper ridge builds north over the Plains into
Monday before a strong upper level trough swings into an upper
trough over the East Coast Tuesday into mid week. A cold front moves
across the forecast area Tuesday before reaching the northern Gulf
coast Tuesday evening. A moist airmass (precipitable h20 levels of
1.9"-2.0") has moved back over the forecast area. Abundant shortwave
energy moving over the Southeast this weekend decreases in the
coming week, as does overall moisture levels as bands of drier air
move over the forecast area and nearby. The result is scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms this weekend decreasing to
isolated to scattered for Monday and Tuesday ahead of the coming
front. With high temperatures above seasonal norms this weekend,
especially the southwestern half of the forecast area (around 90
along and northwest of a Shubuta to Pensacola line, low 90s
southwest) sees an uptick of a couple of degrees Monday into Tuesday
as the Plains upper ridge builds. With the better moisture levels,
Heat Indices are expected to top out in the 98-103 degree range
south of a Shubuta to Florala line Sunday and Monday, with a bit of
a southward shift Tuesday as drier air begins to move south across
the forecast area. Low temperatures remain above seasonal levels,
bottoming out in the low to mid 70s through Monday night.

Tuesday night through Saturday, the drier airmass combined with the
passing upper ridge shifting east over the Southeast will bring a
drier forecast back to the forecast area. Isolated afternoon
convection is possible mainly closer to the coast through Thursday,
with a slow rise into the weekend as onshore flow returns by Friday.
Guidance is painting best chance of returning convection being west
of the Alabama River, with better moisture return over the Lower
Mississippi River Valley. Even so, with the upper ridge present over
the forecast area, coverage of convection is expected to be low,
isolated to scattered. Temperatures behind the front drop to a below
seasonal low to mid 80s Wednesday. From there, temperatures see a
rise, with the magnitude begin governed by strength and placement of
colder air moving over the Southeast behind the front. The current
forecast is based upon a blend of the 00z guidance, with
temperatures rising closer to, but remaining just below seasonal
norms by Saturday.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, consistent
onshore flow weakens though the weekend, decreasing swell on area
beaches. Even with a large tidal range, there will be a slow
decrease in the Rip Risk, from the current Moderate decreasing to a
Low by Monday.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Isolated to possibly scattered convection is anticipated mainly
over interior areas early this evening which gradually diminishes
overnight. Scattered convection is expected to develop on Sunday,
potentially becoming numerous over portions of south central
Alabama in the afternoon. IFR to MVFR conditions and gusty winds
will be possible with the stronger storms. VFR conditions are
otherwise anticipated to prevail. Light southwesterly winds
tonight increase to 5-10 knots on Sunday, becoming westerly well
inland in the afternoon. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Light to moderate westerly to southwesterly flow persists
through the weekend and into early next week. Expect locally higher
winds and seas near thunderstorms today. Winds turn northerly late
Tuesday and easterly by Wednesday. Exercise caution conditions are
possible on Thursday and Friday in the easterly flow.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  91  73  92 /  10  40  20  50
Pensacola   76  87  75  89 /  10  40  30  40
Destin      75  86  74  87 /  10  40  30  20
Evergreen   72  89  71  91 /  40  60  40  30
Waynesboro  72  90  72  92 /  20  30  20  20
Camden      70  87  70  88 /  30  60  40  30
Crestview   72  90  71  93 /  20  60  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$