086
FXUS64 KMOB 281952
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
Issued by National Weather Service New Orleans LA
252 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 238 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

- Extreme Heat Warning in effect for coastal areas today and
  tomorrow with a Heat Advisory for remainder of the area today
  and tomorrow

- High Risk of rip currents is expected to return by next weekend
  for all area beaches.

- Daily afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances increase in the
  middle to latter part of the week. A few storms may produce
  strong wind gusts, heavy rainfall, and dangerous cloud to ground
  lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

It has been another hot day across the region with the heat index
right around the 110 to 114 level along the immediate coast and
elsewhere easily in the 105 to 110 range. There is still a few
more hours of heating so we likely haven`t seen the peak heat
indexvalues yet.

Conditions are finally about to change some after one more day
with very hot conditions. The ridge that has been dominating the
much of the CONUS west of the MS and providing the extreme heat
will finally begin to be suppressed and pushed to the southwest.
This will cause it to lessen its grip on the area and thus
slightly cooler temps but more so a return to a wetter pattern.

We will already begin to see the east coast L/W trough dig tomorrow
eroding the eastern edge of the ridge. This will lead to slightly
cooler mid level temps over the eastern half of the area. At the
same time there is a weak front that is currently dropping through
the OH Valley and towards the TN Valley, this front is expected to
move into the northern MS, AL, and GA before sunrise and continued
to sink towards the northeastern Gulf coast by overnight Wednesday
night. With the front slightly slower there may not be quite as
much convection over the area tomorrow but isolated to widely
scattered activity across the northern outlook counties still
looks pretty good and given the slightly weaker ridge, especially
over the eastern portions of the CWA, we may see isolated coastal
storms thanks to the sea-breeze. Given that convection will likely
be on the lower coverage side and even some possible
compressional heating in front of the front it will be another hot
one. Also with convection likely rather late in the day most of
the area will have little difficulty reaching heat advisory
criteria with the immediate coastal sections likely hitting the
Extreme Heat criteria. With another Heat Adv and Extreme Heat
Warning have been issued for tomorrow for the exact same locations
as today`s.

A few concerns regarding the heat tomorrow, We will see the jet dig
south tomorrow and this could drive in a little more cirrus than
initially expected and that will have some impact on temps but
the bigger impact will be convection. If we get scattered
convection to develop and develop a little earlier than expected
than the increase in cloud cover and numerous outflow boundaries
will likely keep the area a little cooler than currently forecast.


Heading into Thursday and through the weekend rain chances will ramp
up however Friday is a little of a question mark. First Thursday we
will have that front draped across the region rich moisture in place
(PWs of 2-2.2"), slightly weaker grip form the mid lvl ridge, and
possibly even a subtle mid lvl impulse with h5 winds 20-25 kts out
of the north. This would promote a later initiation time
typically but perhaps the front allows for storms to develop a tad
earlier and a few strong storms can`t be ruled out. As for Friday
models are indicating s/w riding in the mid lvls moving across
the region. This is in response to a strong s/w rounding the
ridge tomorrow and then starting to work down the downstream side
of the ridge Thursday. s/w ridging in front of that in response
could keep convection a little more scattered Friday but that is
it because as we head into the weekend we move under northwesterly
flow Friday night and then that strong s/w mentioned earlier
drops down the backside of the east coast L/W trough and closes
off over the Lower MS Valley and portions of the Deep South this
weekend. The lift aloft should lead to numerous storms this
weekend and into the new work week. This will also break the
strong of heat we have been dealing with as well. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Overall not much of a concern on the aviation side. All terminals
are in VFR unless convection moves over top of any sight they
should all remain in VFR status through this forecast. Isolated
storms are possible just north and along the west side of Mobile
Bay which could impact MOB and BFM. Obviously if any storm moves
over any of the terminals look for lower cigs and reduced vsbys.
Otherwise looks like at least one more day before we start seeing
impacts pick up over terminals from convection and then convection
will be an on and off issue through the weekend. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

A diurnal wind pattern will likely persist through the week even
as a weak front drops into the area Wednesday night. This front
will drift over the coast and into the coastal waters Thursday and
Friday but as it stalls the winds will still be mostly dictated
by daytime heating and slight cooling at night. With that light to
moderate onshore winds each day driven by the sea breeze and
light to moderate offshore winds each night driven by the land
breeze. Storm coverage will start to increase Wednesday but look
for storms to really ramp up by Thursday with widespread coverage
by the weekend. Winds and waves will be locally higher near any
storms along the increased threat for dangerous cloud to ground
lightning.

Small Craft Advisory conditions may develop over the Gulf waters by
next weekend. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      77  98  77  94 /  10  20  40  80
Pensacola   80  98  79  93 /   0  20  30  70
Destin      82  95  81  92 /   0  20  40  60
Evergreen   77  97  74  93 /   0  20  40  60
Waynesboro  78  99  76  93 /   0  20  50  70
Camden      78  96  74  91 /   0  30  40  30
Crestview   77  99  76  94 /  10  30  40  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>264.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for ALZ051>060-
     261>264.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266.

     Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for ALZ265-
     266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201-203-205.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for FLZ201-203-
     205.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for FLZ202-
     204-206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ067-075-
     076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$