597
FXUS64 KMOB 301120
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
620 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 608 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

 - A moderate risk of rip currents is expected for beach areas
   today, becoming a High Risk this weekend.

 - Rain chances increase late Saturday afternoon/evening, lasting
   through Sunday morning. Few showers can be expected during
   trick or treating, with chances steadily increasing overnight.
   Heavier rain totals remain generally along the coast between
   0.5 to 1", with locally higher amounts possible.

 - Moderate to strong easterly component in winds will create
   hazardous conditions for small craft through early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 608 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Forecast remains on track. MM/25

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Starting off with early this morning - quiet overall! GOES-16 Night
Microphysics and IR/WV imagery illustrates upper-level clouds
spreading in across from the west, estimated by GOES cloud top
height of around 200-250mb, with a secondary layer at 500-600mb,
matching well with 00Z HRRR proximity sounding trends. Ample dry
air beneath this layer persists in the lower-levels, which will be
the story as we go into the daytime hours as thick mid/upper-level
clouds (and low-level Cu at the top of the mixed PBL layer around 3-
4000ft AGL continues). Main player and culprit in tropospheric
moisture advection aloft is fueled from a broad shortwave impulse
over Texas, funneling moisture/lift over the Mexican Plateau into
the western and northern Gulf coast states. Will watch how this
could interact with forecast highs, but generally expecting highs in
the upper 70`s to some low 80`s. Subtle PVA associated with the
broad impulse over Texas, expected to drive NE over the Gulf/FL
ridge axis will support a few distant radar echoes aloft but
overall, anticipating a dry day.

Friday night, cloudy and overall calm but model soundings
illustrate deepening SE return flow and WAA/moisture advection
regime increasing, ascending/shrinking the mid-level dry air pocket
with time. Leads to a cloudy night overall.

Saturday, the broad shortwave/general weakness remains on top of the
northern Gulf, supporting subtle lift to steadily increase showers,
mainly later in the day/evening. It`ll take some time to moisten the
aforementioned mid-layer, perhaps still with virga turning into light
showers with time. Light/scattered mainly around sunset but will
increase with time going overnight. Best chances remain mainly later
Saturday night, primarily midnight into early Sunday but want to
advertise it is not looking like an all-night washout. Some long-
range guidance hints at a few individual QPF bullseyes along the
coast or just south, but will take a closer look at CAMs and what
they are targeting in this potential, meanwhile, totals have been
trending somewhat lighter for northern areas, going into the day on
Sunday. Something we`ll acquire greater confidence in details by
during the day on Friday.

This impulse dives southeast, away from the general area on Sunday,
with rain chances diminishing during the day, low clouds will likely
hang around making it a cooler day with highs in the mid 70`s.

Then going into next week, the big story becomes a more distinct
evolution of several stronger upper-level features over the Rockies,
and how they will evolve downstream into the central US and
eventually into our neck of the woods. Many complexities here, but
don`t want to get too caught into the weeds. The broad overview is
there will be 2 main players to monitor - a lead, high-amplitude
longwave trough axis making it`s way onshore the Pac NW and another
shortwave impulse rounding the edge of the trough axis swinging into
Baja/northern Mexico. How these two phase and interact, all within a
broad-scale wester/central US ridge pattern spells concern,
especially if both impulses cut off into an upper-level low
migrating (slowly) east into the mid Mississippi valley region.
Additional upstream impulses over south-central Canada will be
another player on the field, resulting in eventual trough amplitude
into the general area. Concern is that we could have 1) lead
low genesis over the central US, eject quickly NE into the Great
Lakes then 2) A secondary low develop with the main energy at the
apex of the trough over the southern MS valley region. This would
favor the likelihood for our first distinct round of severe weather
along the northern Gulf coast. GEFS Machine Learning severe probs
continue to increase in this aforementioned vicinity, with timing
being very low confidence because, as you can tell, MANY factors at
play here that could result in different eventual solutions. For
example, a more closed off low could result in a slower (occluded)
surface low over the central US delaying any secondary low.
Highlighting the days to watch being Tuesday through Wednesday,
could lean later in that 24hr range but again, we`ll have to keep a
close eye on it as this.

Beyond that, not seeing any real deep arctic connection after the
system departs but we`ll cool down noticably back with lows in the
40`s late week. A nice cooldown overall with highs rather seasonal
to follow. KLG

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

VFR flight category prevails across the region through tonight.
Winds remain out of the northeast near or less than 5 knots at
night, increasing to near 10 knots during the day. Locations near
the coast may gust to near 20 knots at times during the day. MM/25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Moderate easterly winds prevail today across the marine waters,
diminishing somewhat this evening. A moderate to strong easterly
flow follows for Saturday through Tuesday. Small Craft Advisories
may become necessary Sunday into early next week. Winds gradually
relax and turn increasingly onshore by mid-week. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      81  65  81  66 /   0   0  30  60
Pensacola   81  69  80  68 /   0   0  20  60
Destin      82  69  81  68 /   0   0  10  50
Evergreen   81  62  80  62 /   0   0  30  60
Waynesboro  81  61  81  62 /   0   0  30  60
Camden      78  61  77  61 /   0   0  30  50
Crestview   82  65  82  63 /   0   0  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Saturday morning through late Monday
     night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Saturday morning through late Monday
     night for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$