762
FXUS64 KMOB 131128
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
628 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 626 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

 - Scattered showers and storms will be possible Sunday. A few
   strong storms will be capable of producing strong wind gusts,
   heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning.

 - High temperatures trend to the mid to upper 90s going into
   early next week with heat indices ranging from 100-107
   degrees.

 - A High Risk of rip currents is expected for Wednesday and
   Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 626 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Forecast remains on track. MM/25

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

A weakening upper trof over the southeastern states ejects off to
the north on Sunday followed by an upper ridge building over the
region through Monday. A weak surface trof extends into the
forecast area on Sunday and looks to aid in isolated to scattered
convective development mainly during the afternoon. The upper
ridge remains over the region through Wednesday with a surface
ridge over the northeastern states meanwhile building into the
southeastern states. Subsidence associated with the upper ridge
will suppress convective development while the building surface
ridge sets up an easterly flow and ushers progressively drier air
into the forecast area beginning Monday and becoming more
pronounced Wednesday into Wednesday night.

An interesting pattern sets up later in the period as an upper
low/trof over the far western Atlantic, with an associated
inverted surface trof, is anticipated to move to over or near the
Florida peninsula on Friday. Am anticipating dry conditions to
continue over the area on Thursday, then have gone with mainly
slight chance pops returning to the southern portion of the area
on Friday. Highs on Sunday will be in the lower to mid 90s then
trend to the mid to upper 90s for Monday and Tuesday. Heat index
values on Sunday through Tuesday will be 100-106 with a few spots
reaching 107. Highs on Wednesday through Friday will be mainly
90-95. Heat index values of 95-103 on Wednesday trend to the mid
90s for Thursday and Friday. A low risk of rip currents is
anticipated from Sunday through Tuesday then increases to a high
risk for Wednesday and Thursday. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

VFR flight category generally prevails across the region through
this evening. Temporary reductions in ceiling and visibility are
possible with patchy fog being noted near and east of the I-65
corridor early this morning. Any lingering fog should erode over
the next couple hours with VFR flight category returning to all
areas. Additional reductions in flight category are possible this
afternoon in association with any showers or storms that develop.
Winds remain light and variable through the morning, becoming
southerly at 5 to 10 knots during the afternoon. Light and
variable winds return to the area after sunset. MM/25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Light southwest to westerly flow prevails today. A light diurnal
flow pattern sets up Monday into Tuesday, becoming a moderate to
strong easterly flow Wednesday into Thursday. 1 foot seas persist
through Tuesday before increasing quickly Wednesday to 3 to 6 feet.
Waterspouts are possible early each morning. A Small Craft Advisory
may be needed late Tuesday through mid week. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      92  73  94  73 /  40   0   0   0
Pensacola   91  77  93  77 /  30   0   0   0
Destin      89  77  92  78 /  20   0   0   0
Evergreen   94  71  97  70 /  30   0   0   0
Waynesboro  96  72  98  70 /  40  10   0   0
Camden      94  72  96  70 /  20   0   0   0
Crestview   93  72  94  72 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$