657
FXUS64 KMOB 170456
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1156 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Precipitation has ended for the most part across the region late
this evening, and should remain generally rain-free for the
overnight hours. A few locations may see IFR ceilings overnight,
but most locations MVFR (or above). Look for another round of
showers and a few thunderstorms again by Monday morning, beginning
around 17/16z and then persisting through the day and into the
early evening hours. Most precipitation should end by 18/03z
across most of the area. Surface winds primarily light east to
southeast through the period. DS/12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 641 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024/

..New AVIATION...

AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Deeper convection is ending for the evening, although scattered
showers and patches of mainly light rain will continue over some
areas for the next few hours. Some locations will continue to see
low end MVFR (around 1000 feet) ceilings this early this evening,
but many areas improving to IFR ceilings sometime after about
17/02z. Look for another round of showers and a few thunderstorms
again by Monday morning, then persisting through the day. MVFR to
occasionally IFR ceilings will again be possible on Monday, as
well as brief periods of IFR visibility in heavy rainfall
associated with some of the convection. Surface winds primarily
light east to southeast through the period. DS/12

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 435 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024/

.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 435 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

A plume of tropical moisture continues to lift northward into much
of our forecast area this afternoon along the western periphery of
an upper level ridge of high pressure centered over the vicinity of
the Carolinas. Numerous showers and thunderstorms have developed
within the plume of deep moisture and a few storm cells have been
strong with gusty winds of 40-50 mph and frequent lightning strikes
given moderate instability (MLCAPE values up to around 2500 J/KG).
Some storms have produced locally heavy rainfall with pockets of 1-
3" estimated by radar across a few locations in southwest/south
central AL and the western FL panhandle. Convective coverage should
gradually decrease this evening into tonight, but will leave low
chance POPs in place given the persistent plume of deep moisture in
place over our area.

The strong upper level ridge of high pressure will remain centered
over the Carolinas into southern Virginia on Monday. The axis of
deeper moisture will become more focused across southeast MS into
southwest Alabama along the western side of this feature Monday.
Another round of numerous to widespread showers and storms will
develop again Monday morning into Monday afternoon, with the best
coverage expected in southeast MS and far southwest AL within the
deeper moisture plume. Will keep POPs high between 60-80% across
this portion of our CWA Monday, with POPs between 30-50% over the
eastern part of our region. Locally heavy rainfall will also be
possible again, but any flooding threat should be very localized.
Lows tonight range from around 70 to the lower 70s over inland areas
and in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees along the coast. Highs
Monday range from the upper 80s over southeast MS/southwest AL and
in the lower 90s across the eastern part of the region.

Persistent southeasterly flow and increasing swell will result in a
HIGH risk of dangerous rip currents along area beaches tonight into
Monday and likely through the upcoming week. /21

SHORT and LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 435 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Upper ridging is in no rush to go anywhere as it remains generally
parked across the southeastern U.S. through Friday. Ridging
finally begins to break down somewhat as we head into the weekend
as an upper trough digs in across the Great Lakes into Midwest
states by Sunday. Generally anticipate the typical diurnal cycle
for this time of year with afternoon isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms each day, mainly in association with the sea-
breeze boundary pushing inland. Best chances will remain confined
across coastal counties of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.
Daily highs will stay warm in the upper 80`s to lower 90`s,
perhaps pushing middle 90`s by mid to late week. Overnight lows
remain toasty with generally lower to middle 70`s expected.
Interior portions of the area may see a couple nights that manage
to sneak into the upper 60`s.

A High Risk of rip currents will remain in effect through the
entire period. A High Surf Advisory also goes into effect starting
late Monday night and lasts through Wednesday night. Surf heights
increase significantly Monday into Tuesday up to around 5 to 7
feet and remains elevated at these heights through Wednesday
night.

There remains a large amount of model spread regarding the
evolution of a trough split across the southwestern Atlantic and
resultant transition into a tropical disturbance. Given the
aforementioned ridging and surface high in place this tropical
disturbance will likely race westward into the southeastern U.S.
coast. Depending on its track, we could see another increase in
rain and thunderstorm chances as we head into the latter part of
this week. MM/25

MARINE...
Issued at 435 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

A light to moderate southeasterly flow will persist through tonight.
A moderate to strong southeasterly flow along with building seas is
anticipated Monday through early Thursday as the gradient increases
between low pressure developing over the southwestern Gulf and high
pressure across the Atlantic. E/SE winds increasing to 15-25 knots
along with seas building to 6-9 feet have prompted the issuance of a
Small Craft Advisory starting late Monday night and continuing into
early Thursday morning. Winds and seas will also be locally higher
near scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      74  87  74  87  75  90  73  92 /  40  70  30  40  20  30  10  30
Pensacola   77  88  77  89  77  90  75  92 /  40  70  40  40  30  30  30  50
Destin      77  90  77  90  77  91  76  92 /  30  50  30  30  30  30  30  40
Evergreen   71  91  70  90  70  90  69  92 /  30  50  10  10   0   0   0  20
Waynesboro  71  89  70  87  71  91  69  92 /  30  80  10  20  10  10   0  10
Camden      72  91  71  89  72  90  70  91 /  30  50  10  10   0   0   0  10
Crestview   72  92  70  92  71  92  70  93 /  30  40  10  20  10  20  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 7 AM CDT Thursday for
     ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 7 AM CDT Thursday for
     FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Tuesday to 7 AM CDT Thursday for
     GMZ650-655-670-675.

&&

$$

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