174
FXUS64 KMOB 171941
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
141 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 138 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

 - Risk for rip currents may increase to a high risk late in the
   week ahead of the next chance for showers and storms.

 - Rain chances gradually increase into the weekend; however,
   drought conditions are expected to continue across the area
   until the rain arrives.
 &&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 138 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Warm and dry conditions prevail through much of the week as a
zonal upper level flow prevails. At the sfc, high pressure will
remain in control with southeasterly to southerly flow bringing
increased moisture to the area. Currently, a warm front is draped
from northwest to southeast across the area separating a warmer
and more moist airmass across southeast Mississippi and extreme
southwest Alabama from the a cooler and much drier airmass to the
northeast. This boundary will lift northward on Tuesday as
southerly flow returns to the area. Temperatures will remain above
normal through the period, likely flirting with a few record
highs by midweek as an upper ridge builds across the area. Lows
will also increase through the period as moisture returns to the
area. Rain chances increase Friday into Saturday as an upper
trough ejects across the plains and weakens as it moves eastward.
While the main dynamics pass well to the north, enough low level
moisture combined with the approaching trough will leads to
isolated to scattered showers and storms Friday into Saturday. Dry
and warm conditions return on Sunday as upper ridging rebuilds
across the area. Overnight patchy fog will continue to be an issue
as moisture levels increase.

Rip current probabilities continue to indicate that a potential
rise to a MODERATE risk for all beaches on Thursday afternoon into
the weekend. /13

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

VFR conditions predominantly prevail through the TAF cycle. There
is a signal for patchy fog or low ceilings in some of the latest
guidance, mainly across southeast Mississippi and potentially
spreading into parts of southwest Alabama, which could lead to
reduced ceilings/visibility for MOB and BFM terminals between
roughly 09-13z. 07/mb

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 138 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Easterly flow today will become southeasterly Tuesday into
Wednesday. A moderate southerly flow develops on Friday ahead of an
approaching front. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      59  78  60  81 /   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   60  76  61  78 /   0   0   0   0
Destin      60  75  62  76 /   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   49  81  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  55  80  58  82 /   0   0   0   0
Camden      50  80  58  82 /   0   0   0   0
Crestview   49  78  54  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$