543
FXUS64 KMOB 131833
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
133 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 121 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

 - Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible
   Sunday. A few strong storms will be capable of producing
   strong wind gusts, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning.

 - High temperatures trend to the mid to upper 90s going into
   early next week with heat indices ranging from 100-107
   degrees, locally higher.

 - A High Risk of rip currents is expected for Wednesday and
   Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 121 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Through Wednesday...A mean upper trough over the Southeast and
Tennessee River Valley moves off as upper level high pressure moves
over the regions early in the coming week. A drier airmass moves
over the Southeast behind the shifting upper trough, with the axis
of higher moisture levels shifting south and east of the forecast
area in response. A surface ridge developing along the Appalachians
beginning Tuesday brings dry northeasterly flow to the eastern half
of the Southeast, with significantly drier airmass moving over the
forecast area mid week. Mid week, an upper level low begins to move
south along the eastern edge of the upper high, beginning to weaken
the influence of the upper high over the Southeast. Rain chances
become more coastally based Monday. Any convection has a possibility
of strong to marginally severe storms this weekend, with MLCapes
in the 2000-2500J/kg and DCapes in the 700-1000J/kg ranges.

With the advancing upper subsidence, temperatures rise to well above
seasonal norms into the coming week. Mid to upper 90s return for
Monday and Tuesday, but a bit of a downtick for Wednesday as the
northeasterly flow is also a bit cooler. The shifting moisture
levels will help to temper Heat Indices going to the coming week,
though. Even so, 100-107F, locally higher, values are expected
Sunday through Tuesday. Low temperatures in the low to mid 70s,
upper 70s along the coast are expected through the short term.

Wednesday night on, a surface ridge that develops along the eastern
side of the Appalachians continues to move drier and somewhat cooler
air over the Southeast into the end of the week. Guidance continues
to advertise the closed upper low moving west over the northern
Gulf. Rain chances the rest of the week over land areas are limited
with the drier air. PoPs remain over the Gulf, with moisture levels
remaining high over the Gulf, though as the upper low moves
southwest of the forecast area in the coming weekend, onshore flow
returns with moisture levels, and PoPs by the end of the forecast.
This upper low does bring increased cloud cover, dropping
temperatures closer to, but a still a bit above, seasonal norms.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, a general Low
Risk is expected through the weekend into the coming week. A more
organized, moderate to strong easterly flow will bring an increased
swell to area beaches beginning mid week, along with a Moderate to
High Rip Risk to area beaches.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

VFR flight categories and light surface winds will prevail through
Monday morning. /22

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 121 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

An upper high moving over the Tennessee River Valley/Southeast
will shift a surface high over the northern Gulf, bringing a
more variable flow to area waters early in the coming week.
A surface ridge develops on the east side of the Appalachians
through the coming week, bringing a tighter gradient over area
waters and a moderate easterly flow to protected waters, with
moderate to strong flow over open Gulf waters. A Small Craft
Advisory is expected mid week.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      74  94  74  93 /  10  20   0  10
Pensacola   77  93  77  92 /  10  10   0  10
Destin      77  92  78  92 /  10  10   0  10
Evergreen   71  96  71  96 /  10  10   0   0
Waynesboro  72  98  72  97 /  10  10   0   0
Camden      72  97  72  96 /  10  10   0   0
Crestview   72  94  72  94 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$