991
FXUS64 KMOB 140422
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1122 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1122 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

 - Heat index values of 100-107 are expected for Monday and
   Tuesday.

 - A High Risk of rip currents is expected for Wednesday and
   Thursday.

 - Moderate to strong easterly winds may create hazardous
   conditions for small craft over the open Gulf from late Tuesday
   night through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

An upper ridge builds over the region through Monday and persists
until retreating from the area later in the week in response to
an upper low which advances from the far western Atlantic into the
eastern Gulf. A surface ridge over the interior eastern states
builds into the southeastern states through midweek which results
in an easterly surface flow setting up over the forecast area on
Tuesday. Despite subsidence associated with the upper ridge
building into the area, may see isolated showers and storms
develop Monday afternoon over southeast Mississippi and
southwestern Alabama aided by the sea breeze and a series of weak
upper level shortwaves. With subsidence effects becoming more
pronounced on Tuesday, anticipate dry conditions to prevail
although may see some convective development over extreme
southeast Mississippi. A surge in the easterly winds accompanying
the surface ridge building into the region looks to lead to
isolated to scattered showers and storms developing mainly over
the marine area Tuesday night which then moves off to the west on
Wednesday. While dry conditions otherwise prevail over land areas
Tuesday night and Wednesday, this may bring some isolated
convection mainly to coastal Alabama late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning.

Dry conditions follow for Thursday, then as the upper low and an
associated inverted surface trof move into the eastern Gulf and
adjacent coastal areas will have slight chance pops near the
coast on Friday with slight chance to chance pops areawide for
Saturday. Highs on Monday will be in the mid to upper 90s with
mostly mid 90s for Tuesday. Heat index values on Monday will be
100-107 with similar values for Tuesday. Highs on Wednesday will
be 90-95, then highs on Thursday through Saturday typically range
from around 90 near the coast to the lower 90s further inland. An
easterly surface flow for Wednesday through Friday ushers in lower
surface dewpoints which keep heat index values limited. While
surface dewpoints begin to trend higher on Saturday, high
temperatures mostly in the lower 90s will keep heat index values
at 95-100. A low risk of rip currents on Monday and Tuesday trends
to a high risk for Wednesday and Thursday, with a moderate risk
following for Friday. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 653 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Scattered showers and storms moving toward the coast will diminish
by 01-02Z, though outflow could produce a brief northerly wind shift
at the Mobile TAF sites. VFR conditions will prevail through the
period outside of isolated showers and thunderstorms Monday
afternoon (10-20% chance), mainly near the coast and parts of
southeast MS. There is also a low chance (<30%) of isolated patchy
fog north of I-10 late tonight. Visibility reductions to MVFR or
briefly lower will be possible with any of this activity. Light
and variable winds tonight will become northerly in the morning,
turning generally southerly to southwesterly during the afternoon
at around 5-10 knots over coastal counties. JGC/98

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 121 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

An upper high moving over the Tennessee River Valley/Southeast
will shift a surface high over the northern Gulf, bringing a
more variable flow to area waters early in the coming week.
A surface ridge develops on the east side of the Appalachians
through the coming week, bringing a tighter gradient over area
waters and a moderate easterly flow to protected waters, with
moderate to strong flow over open Gulf waters. A Small Craft
Advisory is expected mid week.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      74  94  74  93 /  10  10   0  10
Pensacola   77  93  77  92 /   0   0   0  10
Destin      77  92  78  92 /  10   0   0  10
Evergreen   71  97  72  96 /   0  10   0   0
Waynesboro  72  97  72  97 /   0  20   0   0
Camden      72  97  72  96 /   0  20   0   0
Crestview   72  94  73  94 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$