039
FXUS64 KMOB 202340
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
640 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 149 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

 - Scattered, mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms are
   expected through Tuesday. A few storms could be strong with
   gusty winds being the main threat.

 - Above normal temperatures push heat indices into the 100-106
   degree range through Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

The forecast remains on track with storms moving through southern
Alabama and the northwest Florida Panhandle. These storms should
start to lose some steam over the next couple of hours before
pushing into the Gulf. Expect heavy downpours, frequent lightning,
and gusty winds with these storms. SS/97

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

The area remains in a northeasterly upper flow pattern between an
upper ridge to the west and an upper low off the west coast of
Florida. The upper ridge will continue to move westward and
weaken while the upper low meanders off the coast of Florida an
eventually gets absorbed into the upper level flow and moves
northeast by Tuesday. Precipitable water values continue to
increase as Atlantic moisture moves into the area around the upper
low. The weakening ridge along with increasing moisture will
allow scattered mainly afternoon showers and storms to develop the
rest of today and Monday. The ridge rebuilds Tuesday into
Wednesday with rain chances decreasing. A weak front moves through
the area late Wednesday into Thursday with a drier airmass moving
into the area. The lack of significant moisture ahead of the
front along with the upper ridge will keep conditions dry as the
front moves through.

Above normal temps in the low to mid 90s continue through midweek
before some slightly cooler and drier air moves into the area
behind the front late in the week. /13

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Thunderstorms are
possible tomorrow afternoon mainly near the sea breeze and any
resultant outflow boundaries that move further inland. These storms
are accompanied by gusty winds and drops of cigs/vis to MVFR and
even locally IFR within the strongest storms. The current generally
southwesterly winds become light and variable overnight. By tomorrow
morning, winds will be generally easterly at 5-10 knots and shift
southerly to southeasterly near the coast with periodic gusts up to
15 knots as the afternoon sea breeze advances. SS/97

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 149 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas
possible near thunderstorms. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  93  73  93 /  10  40  20  10
Pensacola   76  90  75  91 /  20  20  20  10
Destin      76  89  76  90 /  20  20  20  10
Evergreen   70  94  70  95 /  10  20  20  10
Waynesboro  71  95  71  95 /   0  20  20  20
Camden      71  94  71  94 /   0  20  20  10
Crestview   72  93  71  93 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$