059
FXUS64 KMOB 310541
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1241 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1232 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

- Thunderstorm chances increase today through the weekend. A few
  storms may produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts,
  torrential rainfall, and frequent cloud to ground lightning.

- A High Risk of rip currents is expected to return this weekend
  for all area beaches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

An active pattern continues into this weekend as the upper ridge
continues to shift westward and an upper trough digs across the
eastern states. A stronger shortwave moving through this trough
will send a weak front southward into the area this weekend,
likely stalling near or north of the area. The cooler mid levels
temps combined with approaching boundary and daytime heating will
lead to the development of scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms each day through the weekend. Showers and storms
will be most numerous during the afternoon and early evening
hours. With the increased rain chances, temps will be in the upper
80s and low 90s in most areas. Heat index values will generally be
below advisory levels, however some areas could reach around 108
before storms develop. As we head into next week the upper trough
lifts out and we gradually get upper ridging to work its way back
into the area. Afternoon highs warm into the lower to middle 90s
again and rain chances diminish to more isolated to scattered
coverage each day next week.

A few storms could become strong or briefly severe each day with
damaging winds the main threat in addition to frequent lightning.
A very moist atmosphere combined with slow moving storms will also
create locally heavy rain which could cause some localized flash
flooding to develop. A moderate risk of rip currents continues
today, becoming high this weekend into early next week. /13

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

A few patches of fog will be possible overnight mainly over
interior areas, then MVFR conditions are anticipated with
scattered to numerous showers and storms that develop across the
area mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. Calm or
light and variable winds overnight become southwesterly 5-10 knots
on Friday. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Light to moderate westerly winds becomes a moderate to
occasionally strong westerly to southwesterly flow for Saturday
night through Sunday before diminishing on Monday. Small Craft
should exercise caution this weekend, and forecast trends will be
monitored for the potential need of Small Craft Advisories at some
point this weekend. Scattered to numerous showers and storms
become possible through late week, with best chances this weekend.
MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      91  75  92  75 /  70  40  30  60
Pensacola   91  78  90  78 /  80  40  60  60
Destin      90  79  88  79 /  70  60  70  70
Evergreen   91  72  89  73 /  60  50  60  50
Waynesboro  92  74  92  73 /  70  30  30  30
Camden      90  73  87  72 /  50  50  50  50
Crestview   92  74  89  74 /  80  50  70  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$