954
FXUS64 KMOB 291157
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
657 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 647 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

- Extreme Heat Warning in effect for coastal areas with a Heat
  Advisory for remainder of the area today.

- High Risk of rip currents is expected to return by this weekend
  for all area beaches.

- Daily afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances increase
  through the end of the week and into the weekend. A few storms
  may produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts, heavy
  rainfall, and dangerous cloud to ground lightning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 647 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

The dangerous heat conditions will continue through today with
high temperatures reaching into the middle to upper 90s and heat
indices ranging from between 108 and 115 degrees, highest near the
coast. There are some mid level clouds advecting southeast into
the area this morning. At this time, it appears that these clouds
should thin out by mid to late morning and not hinder high
temperatures. This will be monitored closely and could result in
temperatures a bit lower than currently forecast if they remain
thicker than currently anticipated.

By later this afternoon, an upper level shortwave dropping
southeast around the periphery of the retreating upper ridge will
help to enhance lift, especially across the northeastern half of
the forecast area where scattered storms should develop by later
this afternoon and then advance southeast towards the coast by
evening. The environment should be moderately unstable which will
allow for a continuation for a few locally strong to marginally
severe storms with localized strong to damaging wind gusts
possible with the strongest storms. Storm chances should linger
into this evening as a weak frontal boundary drops into the area
and stalls. Overall the forecast looks on track and no major
updates are needed at this time. /JLH

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

One more very hot day today before a pattern change brings cooler
temps and higher rain chances. Highs today will again climb into
the upper 90s to around 100. The combination of the high temps
and high humidity will send heat index values into the 110 to 115
range along the coast and 105 to 110 level across the remainder
of the area. An Extreme Heat Warning continues for the immediate
coast with a Heat Advisory across the remainder of the area.

Thursday through the end of the week, the upper ridge will weaken
as an upper trough over the eastern states digs southward. This
will erode the eastern side of the ridge as a weak frontal
boundary sinks southward. The cooler mid level temps along with
the frontal boundary will bring increased chances of rain for the
latter half of the week. Additional impulses moving through the
upper trough, cooler mid level temps and weak sfc convergence
along a stalled boundary over the area will continue high rain
chances through the weekend, with scattered to numerous showers
and storms each day. The storms will be moist numerous during
peak heating. The additional clouds and rain will knock high
temps back into the upper 80s and low 90s for the end of the week
into the weekend. /13

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 647 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

VFR conditions should continue through the period with the
exception for brief reductions in ceilings and visibilities later
this afternoon and evening when scattered storms will develop.
Winds will primarily be driven by the diurnal variations
associated with the sea/land breezes and convective outflows. /JLH

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

A diurnal wind pattern is expected is expected to persist through
the week with light to moderate onshore winds each day driven by
the sea breeze and light to moderate offshore winds each night
driven by the land breeze. Storm coverage will increase through
the end of this week with widespread coverage by the weekend.
Winds and waves will be locally higher near any storms along the
increased threat for dangerous cloud to ground lightning.

Small Craft Advisory conditions may develop over the Gulf waters
by the weekend. /JLH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      97  77  93  74 /  20  20  80  40
Pensacola   97  79  93  77 /  30  20  70  40
Destin      93  81  91  78 /  30  20  70  50
Evergreen   98  75  94  72 /  20  40  60  20
Waynesboro  98  75  95  73 /  20  50  70  20
Camden      95  75  93  73 /  30  50  40  20
Crestview   98  76  94  73 /  40  40  80  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for ALZ051>060-261>264.

     Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for FLZ201-203-205.

     Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$