847
FXUS64 KMOB 151125
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
625 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

The forecast area remains situated between a ridge building into the
Desert Southwest and the subtropical ridge just to our east. Between
these two areas, a shortwave remains in place over the Mississippi
Valley. This keeps the area in southwest flow aloft, with plentiful
moisture continuing to filter into the area. At the surface, weak
southerly flow persists across much of the region, with a boundary
draping from the Ohio Valley west-southwestward through the Lower
Mississippi Valley. We`ll maintain mostly clear skies through the
remainder of the predawn hours, with lows in the lower 70s.

The aforementioned shortwave will amplify during the day, digging
southward through the Lower Mississippi Valley. Several weaker
shortwaves will eject from its base, lifting northeastward and
providing additional forcing aloft. The abundance of moisture in
place, along with outflows from convection to our north and the
seabreeze, will allow for thunderstorms to develop later this
morning. Coverage is expected to be relatively high, given the
airmass in place and little subsidence to limit CI, with higher
chances during the afternoon. Similar conditions are expected for
Monday, though coverage of storms may be a tad higher on Monday, as
the shortwave slowly moves eastward and amplifies. Given a lack of
organization each day, storms will be pulse in nature, with gusty
winds up to 50 mph and perhaps small hail in any storms can maintain
a strong enough updraft.

The pattern remains a bit messy heading into mid week, as the
shortwave continues its slow progression eastward. By Tuesday night,
this shortwave will become absorbed in the longwave pattern, with
the ridges to our west and east maintaining their hold. Another
shortwave will move into the Central Plains Tuesday night, moving
eastward through the northern CONUS. The surface pattern will change
very little, keeping the steady flow of moisture into the region.
Precip chances for Tuesday and Wednesday are a challenge, as there
remains a lack of surface forcing. Despite the lack of surface
forcing, it`s reasonable to expect mesoscale boundaries to allow for
CI during our peak heating. Like the days before, given little
subsidence, once storms develop, those outflows will likely generate
additional outflows for storms to develop along as well. So,
numerous to widespread storms are expected once again Tuesday and
Wednesday.

The trough will move through the region on Thursday, as the ridge to
the west strengthens and moves eastward. High PoPs were maintained,
though confidence is pretty low for the latter half of the workweek.
Previous guidance suggested the ridge to our west strengthening and
moving eastward by the end of the week, and that solution has been
pushed back a day or two. Latest guidance holds off on pushing the
ridge eastward until late Friday and into Saturday. So, the forecast
is based on the trough maintaining some influence on the pattern and
the moisture in place. The ridge does look to build into the area by
the weekend, with drier conditions taking hold. Unfortunately,
hotter temps will also accompany the ridge and we may need to look
at heat products by late in the week.

As far as temperatures through the period, seasonably hot conditions
will persist, with highs warming to around 90 and overnight lows
falling into the 70s. We`ll approach the mid 90s next weekend and
heat indices will approach advisory criteria. Something we`ll have
to monitor over the coming days. /73

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Afternoon showers
and thunderstorms are possible once again. Forecast confidence on
timing is low; but the most likely timeframe for thunderstorms
will be between 20Z and 00Z. Isolated thunderstorms may impact the
terminals prior to that, and amendments may become necessary. /73

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Light onshore flow to persist into early next week. Occasionally
moderate southerly flow is possible, especially in the nearshore
waters which will be influenced by the diurnal land and sea breeze
pattern. Winds and seas will likely be temporarily higher in the
vicinity of storms. /73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      90  73  89  74  90  75  89  75 /  70  20  80  40  80  20  80  20
Pensacola   89  76  88  78  88  79  88  78 /  70  30  80  50  80  20  70  30
Destin      89  78  89  79  89  80  90  80 /  60  40  80  50  80  20  70  30
Evergreen   92  70  91  72  90  72  91  72 /  70  30  80  20  80  10  80  10
Waynesboro  92  70  91  72  93  72  92  72 /  70  30  80  20  80  10  70  10
Camden      90  70  89  72  89  72  89  73 /  70  30  80  30  80  10  70  10
Crestview   91  71  90  72  90  73  91  72 /  70  20  90  30  90  10  80  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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