710
FXUS64 KMOB 161113
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
613 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

An upper level trough will remain over the Mississippi Valley, with
ridging over the western CONUS and the subtropical ridge to our
east, with the forecast area under southwest flow aloft. At the
surface, southerly flow will also persist, with the deep layer flow
allowing PWs to climb to near 2 inches. Meanwhile, weaker shortwaves
will rotate through the southwest flow aloft, lending additional
forcing for storms that are able to lift off any surface
boundaries. The pattern will remain largely unchanged through
Thursday, as the initial trough becomes absorbed in the longwave
pattern and a second trough quickly digs into the Plains and then
moves eastward. This means we`ll see a rinse and repeat of what
we`ve seen the last couple of days, with storms developing along
the seabreeze during the morning and then lifting northward
through the day. We`ll also likely have outflow boundaries from
storms to our west, and with little in the way of subsidence,
coverage will be scattered to numerous each afternoon. There may
be slightly higher coverage on Tuesday, though confidence is low.
Any storm that`s able to maintain their updrafts will be capable
of producing gusty winds up to 40 mph and small hail.

The upper ridge to our west seems to finally push the upper
troughing eastward on Friday, before settling over the region this
weekend. After another day of scattered to numerous convection on
Friday, drier conditions will take hold for Saturday and Sunday.
Scattered storms are still anticipated, but the influence of the
ridge should provide for more limited coverage. Unfortunately that
will also translate into even hotter conditions to set in. We`ll
remain seasonably warm through the week, with highs climbing into
the upper 80s to lower 90s each afternoon. By the weekend, temps
will approach the mid to upper 90s in some spots. Looking ahead,
heat indices will exceed 100 degrees, with a potential for
reaching heat advisory criteria for some spots.

Beach Forecast - The rip current risk remains LOW through Tuesday
and increases to a MODERATE on Wednesday and Thursday. The latest
rip current probability guidance continues to trend toward a
MODERATE risk by Friday. /73

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected once again today,
impacting the terminals periodically. Uncertainty remains high
with regard to timing and duration of storms; however, based on
recent trends and latest guidance, the TAFs reflect a most likely
scenario for storms today. Storms developing off the coast will
lift northward and may impact KPNS and KJKA this morning. This
activity has generally been short lived in nature, so opted for
VCTS during the morning hours. At this point, we`re not
anticipating storms to impact KBFM and KMOB until this afternoon.
Between 18Z and 00Z is the most likely timeframe for storms to
move over the terminals, and a TEMPO group has been included for
all 4 sites given the uncertainty on when prevailing TSRA will
occur. This activity will wind down around sunset, though have
kept a PROB30 in through 02Z to account for any lingering
activity. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions. /73

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 216 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Light onshore flow to persist through most of this week.
Occasionally moderate southerly flow is possible, especially in
the nearshore waters which will be influenced by the diurnal land
and sea breeze pattern. Winds and seas will likely be temporarily
higher in and near the vicinity of storms. The environment also
looks to be supportive of waterspouts in morning activity near the
coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      90  74  89  75  90  75  91  75 /  60  20  80  10  70  20  70  30
Pensacola   88  78  88  79  89  78  89  78 /  70  30  70  20  60  30  70  30
Destin      89  79  89  80  90  79  90  79 /  70  30  70  20  50  30  60  30
Evergreen   91  71  91  72  92  72  93  73 /  70  20  80  10  50  10  70  20
Waynesboro  91  71  92  73  93  72  93  73 /  70  20  70  10  60  10  60  20
Camden      90  72  89  72  90  72  91  73 /  60  30  70  10  60  10  60  30
Crestview   90  73  90  72  92  72  92  73 /  70  20  80  10  50  10  80  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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