836
FXUS64 KMOB 050600
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
100 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1258 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances remain elevated through
  early next week. A few storms may produce gusty winds, frequent
  lightning, and heavy rainfall, with isolated instances of flash
  flooding possible.

- Peak heat index values of around 100-107 are expected through at
  least Monday, with values of 108-110 possible Sunday and Monday.
  Heat Advisories may be needed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

The tropical wave that brought heavy downpours to the area yesterday
is becoming increasingly strung out along the northern Gulf coast
this morning as it leaves behind an east-west zone of enhanced
moisture. The ridge to the north will keep an easterly mid-level
flow in place across the area, with a weak low-level flow allowing
the sea breeze to push well inland this afternoon. Remnant moisture
will lead to another round of showers and storms today, though not
quite as widespread as yesterday, with 40-60% PoPs areawide.

One area of focus for convection could be mid-late morning to the
north of Highway 84 in Alabama along a zone of elevated convergence.
With PWATs around 2.4 inches and the potential for training storms,
a localized flash flood threat may develop. The second area would be
near the coast and offshore during the morning hours, shifting
inland with the sea breeze through the afternoon. PWATs of around
2.1-2.3 inches over these areas will continue to support heavy
downpours with any storms. Waterspouts will also remain possible
over the marine waters through the morning hours.

Sunday and Monday could be a bit more interesting in terms of
convective potential. The mid-level ridge to the north will become
suppressed westward over the Southern Plains as shortwaves swing
down the western edge of an amplifying upper trough along the
eastern seaboard. This pattern places the area within a general
northerly steering flow with notable upper diffluence over the
Southeast. In the low levels, weak convergence and moisture pooling
ahead of a backdoor cold front pushing south from the Tennessee
Valley should support areas of robust thunderstorm development over
portions of the Southeast. While there is considerable uncertainty
regarding where storms will develop each day, the most likely focus
on Sunday appears to be north and east of the area, perhaps pushing
into our interior areas late in the day (40-50% PoPs). A greater
focus looks to develop across our coastal counties on Monday
afternoon (60-70% PoPs) as the backdoor front potentially reaches
our northern counties. Guidance points to a very unstable
environment both days with 3000+ J/kg of MLCAPE and perhaps some
deep-layer wind shear increasing to around 20 knots, which may
support a few strong to severe storms. Drier air filtering in aloft
could also enhance microburst potential. Trends will be monitored
for a marginal severe storm potential.

By Tuesday, the upper ridge over the Plains builds back to the east,
shifting the steering flow back to easterly as the backdoor front
stalls and washes out over the region. This pattern will keep at
least the southern half of the area in fairly deep moisture through
midweek, maintaining scattered to numerous showers and storms (40-
60% PoPs) each afternoon, especially along the sea breeze. If the
front manages to push farther south, then a greater reduction in
rain chances may be needed for Tuesday and beyond.

Above normal temperatures are expected through the period, with
highs remaining in the 90s and peak heat indices over 100 each day.
Heat is expected to peak on Sunday and Monday, with heat indices
potentially reaching 108-110 in some areas. This may warrant the
issuance of Heat Advisories for Sunday and/or Monday. JGC/98

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

For early this morning, will monitor patchy areas of sfc fog
potentially around 09Z-13Z across interior AL/FL locations
along/east of I-65, with probabilities of quarter mile visibility
at around 20-40% briefly before conditions improve after sunrise.
Otherwise, we`ll see developing SCT SHRA/TSRA across coastal
areas early this morning, with Prob30`s introduced mainly from
12-15Z KPNS and KJKA. Then, will see SCT TSRA for inland TAF sites
18-21Z. Main impacts from any passing SHRA/TSRA will be periodic
lower VIS/CIGs from heavy rain leading to reduced flight
categories, but expect VFR prevailing outside of any of this
activity then turning dry/calm overnight. KLG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

A generally light east to southeast flow pattern will become
southwesterly westerly this weekend through Monday. A light to
moderate easterly to southeasterly flow returns Tuesday through late
next week. Rain chances will increase through the weekend with
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms during the morning
hours. A few waterspouts will be possible each morning. SS/97

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      90  73  92  74 /  50  20  60  10
Pensacola   89  77  91  77 /  50  20  50  20
Destin      88  78  90  78 /  50  20  50  30
Evergreen   92  72  95  70 /  50  30  50  20
Waynesboro  94  73  96  71 /  40  10  50  10
Camden      92  73  95  71 /  40  10  30  20
Crestview   91  72  93  73 /  50  20  60  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$