203
FXUS64 KMOB 302310
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
610 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 608 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

 - A Moderate risk of rip currents today increases to a High risk
   for Thursday through the weekend for all area beaches.

 - Rain chances substantially increase Thursday through the
   weekend. Numerous showers and storms will be capable of
   producing heavy rainfall, which may lead to localized flash
   flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 123 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Southerly flow will increase Thursday into Friday as an upper
trough moves into the southern plains. This will induce a sfc low
to develop across the plains states and move northeast. A trailing
frontal boundary will move slowly southeast. Meanwhile, sfc high
pressure will build off the southeast coast. Deep southerly flow
will bring Gulf moisture surging back into the region Friday
through the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected on Thursday becoming numerous to widespread on Friday.
The wet pattern continues through the weekend as precipitable
water values climb to 2.3 inches. Deep, warm rain processes will
enable locally heavy rain at times.

While the timing and placement of the heaviest rain remains
uncertain, localized flash flooding would become a risk where
storms train repeatedly, particularly in urban and poor-drainage
areas. WPC has outlooked much of the area in a slight risk of
excessive rainfall both Saturday and Sunday. /13

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Expect prevailing VFR conditions for this evening and tonight.
Only a few isolated -SHRA through about 00-03Z will dissipate,
however, will likely see more isolated to eventually scattered
SHRA across coastal areas after 06-08Z, spreading inland during
the morning hours 12-15Z. Have introduced best timing/coverage
for Prob30`s for area TAF sites but generally expect passing
showers at any point during the day on Thursday through the
evening hours. Main impacts will be brief reductions in flight
categories from periodic reduced VIS/CIGs but expecting VFR
outside of any SHRA activity. KLG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 123 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

A moderate to occasionally strong southerly flow develops on
Thursday and continues through Saturday. Winds decrease early next
week. Seas increase to 3-6 feet late week into the Saturday. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  88  73  87 /  10  50  30  90
Pensacola   77  87  77  86 /  10  40  50  90
Destin      76  87  77  86 /  10  30  40  80
Evergreen   67  91  68  90 /   0  20   0  80
Waynesboro  68  89  69  89 /   0  40   0  80
Camden      68  91  70  90 /   0  10  10  60
Crestview   69  89  71  88 /   0  40  10  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Thursday morning through Saturday
     evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Thursday morning through Saturday
     evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$