460
FXUS64 KMOB 261149
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
649 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 645 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

- Shower and thunderstorm chances will steadily increase in
  coverage each afternoon through Friday, gradually diminishing
  this weekend. Storms will be capable of producing strong to
  locally damaging wind gusts, heavy rain, and frequent lightning.

- Summer continues across the area with heat indices topping out
  at around 100-107 degrees each day.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

The current forecast is on track and no updates are needed at this
time. /13

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

An upper trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley and western
Great Lakes will shift eastward and dig southward with the base
reaching the Tennessee Valley by this evening. This upper trough
will have a higher impact (increasing chance of showers and
storms) on Thursday and Friday as the upper trough digs further
southward with the base reaching the northeastern Gulf, along with
a series of embedded impulses and shortwaves moving in mainly
northwesterly flow from 700-400mb. There will be generalized
widespread lower-level pressure across the region under the upper
trough, but no discernible dominate features. Eventually the
trough will begin to lift northeastward by Saturday, allowing an
upper ridge to build in from the west over the weekend and bring a
gradual lowering of rain chances and increasing temperatures
through early next week.

Similar to yesterday morning, we will see convection develop along
the coast late tonight into the morning hours due to low-level
convergence along a land-breeze. There is no clear focus as to
where scattered inland showers and storms will first develop this
afternoon, just random in nature. But by late afternoon we should
see a more defined line develop between Highway-84 and I-10 as the
seabreeze pushes inland. As with typical summertime convection,
some of these late afternoon/early evening storms will have
potential to produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts in
addition to heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. While much of
the convection dissipates by mid-evening, with the upper trough on
the move we will still see isolated to scattered showers and
storms through the overnight hours. The best chance will occur
across southeast Mississippi where a potential Meso-scale
Convective System (MCS) moving southward over the Lower
Mississippi Valley could clip those zones after midnight. The
environment will again become supportive after midnight for a few
storms to produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts in
addition to heavy rainfall and frequent lightning, mainly across
our southeast Mississippi zones.

With PWATS increasing from around 2" to 2.2" Thursday and Friday,
numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms will occur
Thursday followed by scattered to numerous coverage on Friday,
with the potential for localized flooding. The Weather Prediction
Center (WPC) has our area outlooked for a Slight Risk (level 2 of
4) for excessive rainfall on Thursday and a Marginal Risk (level 1
of 4) on Friday. Agree with the previous forecaster that it`s
difficult to tell at this time which locations would have better
chances. An inch or two of rain across the area remains most
probable, with locally 2 to 4 inches if training of slow-moving
storms are able to set up across the area. We will continue to
monitor the situation.

Above normal high temperatures will occur today ranging from
90-95 degrees, and when combined with afternoon surface dewpoints
ranging from 70 to 75 degrees, maximum apparent temperatures (heat
indices) should range from 100-105 degrees. High temperatures
will be near normal Thursday and Friday (around 90 degrees) before
inches back up to slightly above normal for the weekend. Lows
will remain slightly above normal through the remainder of the
week, ranging from around 70 degrees inland to around 75 degrees
along the coast.

Beach Forecast: A LOW risk of rip currents will occur through the
remainder of the month. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through The morning hours.
Isolated to Scattered showers and storms should start to develop
across the area by the late morning/early afternoon hours. Expect
brief reductions in visibilities and ceilings in some of the
heavier activity. /13

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 351 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas
possible near thunderstorms. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      93  73  89  71 /  50  30  80  50
Pensacola   91  76  88  74 /  40  30  80  60
Destin      88  77  87  75 /  30  40  80  50
Evergreen   95  70  90  69 /  40  40  80  40
Waynesboro  95  72  91  70 /  50  50  60  50
Camden      94  72  88  71 /  30  40  70  50
Crestview   94  71  90  70 /  50  30  70  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$