948
FXUS64 KMOB 130454
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1154 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

 - Record or near record highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s are
   expected this week. With many areas still without power and
   recovery efforts from Hurricane Isaias ongoing, these
   temperatures could lead to an increased risk for heat-related
   illnesses.

 - Strong northerly winds develop over the marine area Friday
   night and into the weekend, and will likely create hazardous
   conditions for small craft. Gale conditions may be possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

High pressure is expected to maintain its hold over the local
area over the next few days. Subsidence from this high, as well as
a dry airmass in place (PWATs between 0.7 and 1.0 inch) will give
way to sunny skies, very warm highs, and cool lows through the
week. Highs throughout the week will top out in the upper 80s to
low 90s (possibly even a few mid 90s today and tomorrow over
interior counties). Similar to what we saw yesterday, these
temperatures may get close to our daily record highs over the
coming days. Here are the forecast highs and current records for
today, Wednesday, and Thursday for Mobile and Pensacola:

Tuesday (10/13):
Mobile    91, Record 92
Pensacola 88, Record 90

Wednesday (10/14):
Mobile    89, Record 90
Pensacola 87, Record 89

Thursday (10/15):
Mobile    88, Record 89
Pensacola 87, Record 89

The good news is, that heat indices should remain close to the
actual temperatures due to afternoon dewpoints generally in the 50s
and 60s. That being said, there are still many locations without
power due to Hurricane Isaias. These very warm temperatures, along
with little to no cloud cover to provide relief from the sun, could
lead to an increased risk for heat-related illnesses. Everyone part
of the recovery process is urged to take frequent breaks in the
shade and drink plenty of water, especially if engaging in strenuous
activity. Lows through Thursday night will generally range from the
upper 50s to low 60s inland to the mid 60s along the coast.
Additionally, saturated boundary layer conditions at night, calm
winds, and clear skies may help to promote patchy fog development
each morning this week.

By Friday and into the upcoming weekend, upper troughing is expected
to dig into the northeast US. As this occurs, an associated cold
front is expected to sweep through the area Friday night. Limited
moisture return ahead of the front should keep rain out of the
forecast as it pushes through. Behind it, a much cooler and even
drier airmass filters into the region from the north for the
weekend. Highs are forecast to drop into the 70s across the area,
along with lows ranging from the low 50s over our northern counties
to the low 60s along the coast. Temperatures should start to
moderate by early next week. A Low Risk of Rip Currents will be in
place through the week. It should be noted that RCMOS probabilistic
data suggests that the rip current risk may increase to a Moderate
Risk Saturday afternoon, and eventually a High Risk by Saturday
night. /96

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Patchy fog is likely late tonight over portions of southeast
Mississippi. There is a lower chance of fog elsewhere, with the most
likely TAF sites to experience some fog being MOB and JKA (about
30% chance). Not enough confidence to include in TAFs at this
time. Any fog should clear by 1300Z Tuesday. Otherwise, expect VFR
conditions through the period. Light and variable winds are
expected through the period, except for a light southerly to
southwesterly sea breeze during the afternoon Tuesday. JGC/98

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1108 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

A diurnal flow cycle will occur through Friday with an offshore flow
developing late each night into the morning hours then becoming
onshore near the coast during the afternoon. Strong northerly winds
are forecast for Friday night as a powerful cold front passes
through the region, with gusts to gale force possible. A Small
Craft Advisory or possibly a Gale Warning may become necessary for
Friday night. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      91  63  90  63 /   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   90  65  89  65 /   0   0   0   0
Destin      87  67  87  67 /   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   92  59  93  59 /   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  92  60  92  60 /   0   0   0   0
Camden      90  59  91  59 /   0   0   0   0
Crestview   91  60  92  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$