467
FXUS64 KMOB 162042
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
342 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New Discussion, Marine...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...Tonight through Tuesday Night...

Weak upper troughing generally remains situated just west of the
area while upper ridging slowly builds off the southeast U.S.
coastline. This will keep the area in a deep, moist airmass into
Tuesday with another day of scattered to locally numerous showers
and thunderstorms expected. Temperatures will remain warm in the
upper 80`s to near 90 degrees for highs while overnight lows dip
into the lower to middle 70`s tonight and Tuesday night. Expect the
usual Summer time pulse-type stronger afternoon showers and storms
owing to ample instability and weak shear over the area with gusty
winds, small hail, heavy rain, and frequent lightning the primary
hazards with storms. If storms can train over the same areas some
localized flash flooding can`t be ruled out. A Low risk of rip
currents continues through Tuesday night. MM/25

Wednesday Through Sunday...

An upper level ridge over the western Atlantic continues to slowly
nudge toward the Southeast and eastern Gulf as we roll into the back
half of the week. A shortwave trough to our west becomes less
amplified on Wednesday as it pushes up against the ridge and begins
to lift out on Thursday. General ridging aloft builds into the Deep
South and Southeast Friday and Saturday before building into the
eastern half of the CONUS late in the weekend. Rain chances trend
back toward our typical summertime pattern regime as we roll into
the weekend and the heat starts to rise as ridging builds into the
region. In the meantime, expect higher rain chances to continues
each afternoon through Thursday. Pulse thunderstorms are possible
each afternoon give ample instability and minimal shear, so we can`t
rule out a few strong storms with gusty winds and frequent lightning
being the main threats.

Beach Forecast - The rip current risk increases to a MODERATE on
Wednesday through Friday. The rip current probability guidance is
trending toward a LOW risk over the weekend, but it`s borderline
LOW/MODERATE. 07/mb

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

VFR conditions prevail for most locations this afternoon with a
few spots seeing showers and thunderstorms across the area that
may result in temporary reductions in ceiling and/or visibility.
VFR conditions once again prevail tonight with any lingering
storms being focused offshore or near the immediate coast through
daybreak. Expect isolated showers and storms to once again develop
mid to late Wednesday morning. Winds remain out of the south to
south-southwest at 5 to 10 knots. MM/25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 341 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow persists through the
week into the weekend. Winds and seas may be temporarily higher in
and around any thunderstorms. Waterspouts can`t be ruled out each
morning with any storms. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      74  88  74  89  75  91  74  92 /  30  70  30  70  20  70  20  60
Pensacola   78  88  79  89  78  90  77  91 /  30  70  30  60  20  60  20  60
Destin      79  89  80  89  80  90  79  91 /  30  60  20  60  30  70  30  50
Evergreen   71  90  72  91  72  93  72  94 /  20  70  10  60  10  70  20  50
Waynesboro  71  90  71  92  72  93  72  94 /  20  70  10  70  10  60  20  50
Camden      71  88  71  89  72  91  72  91 /  20  70  20  70  10  60  20  50
Crestview   72  90  72  91  73  91  72  94 /  20  70  10  70  20  70  20  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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