269
FXUS64 KMOB 122359
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
659 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 656 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

 - Scattered showers and storms will remain possible through
   Sunday. A few strong storms capable of producing strong wind
   gusts, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning will be possible.

 - Waterspouts are possible with any storms over the marine waters
   this morning, primarily from dawn through mid-morning.

 - High temperatures are expected to increase next week with heat
   indices potentially ranging from 100-107 degrees.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 656 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

A cluster of strong thunderstorms producing heavy rain and strong
wind gusts is moving south through Choctaw and Wayne counties early
this evening. These storms are on a weakening trend, but will likely
impact portions of Washington and Greene Counties as well before
diminishing after sunset. JGC/98

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Through Tuesday...A mean upper trough over the Southeast and
Tennessee River Valley moves off as upper level high pressure moves
over the regions early in the coming week. A drier airmass moves
over the Southeast behind the shifting upper trough, with the axis
of higher moisture levels shifting south and east of the forecast
area in response. Rain chances become more coastally based Sunday,
and offshore Monday. Any convection has a possibility of strong to
marginally severe storms this weekend, with MLCapes in the 2000-
2500J/kg and DCapes in the 700-1000J/kg ranges.

With the advancing upper subsidence, temperatures rise to well above
seasonal norms into the coming week. Mid to upper 90s return for
Monday and Tuesday. The shifting moisture levels will help to temper
Heat Indices going to the coming week, though. Even so, 100-107F,
locally higher, values are expected Sunday through Tuesday. Low
temperatures in the low to mid 70s, upper 70s along the coast are
expected through the short term.

Tuesday night on, a surface ridge develops along the eastern side of
the Appalachians, in response to the shifting upper ridge. Guidance
continues to advertise a closed upper low moving west over the
northern Gulf coast. The surface ridge moves a significantly drier
airmass southwest over the Southeast as the upper low begins to move
onshore over the region, limiting rain chances the rest of the week
over land areas. PoPs remain over the Gulf, with moisture levels
remaining high over the Gulf. This upper low does bring increased
cloud cover, dropping temperatures to closer, but a still a bit
above, seasonal norms.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, a general Low
Risk is expected through the weekend into the coming week. A more
organized, moderate to strong easterly flow will bring an increased
swell to area beaches, along with a Moderate to High Rip Risk to
area beaches by mid week.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 656 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period outside of isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon (20-30%
coverage). Isolated showers also cannot be ruled out near the
coast early Sunday morning. Ceiling and visibility reductions to
MVFR or briefly lower will be possible with any of this activity,
and a few storms could produce wind gusts over 30 knots, mainly
inland. Light and variable winds tonight will become northwesterly
in the morning, turning generally southwesterly during the
afternoon at around 5-10 knots over coastal counties. JGC/98

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

An upper high moving over the Tennessee River
Valley/Southeast, with shift a surface high over the northern Gulf,
bringing a more variable flow to area waters early in the coming
week. A surface ridge develops on the east side of the Appalachians
through the coming week, bringing a moderate easterly flow to area
waters, with moderate to strong flow over open Gulf waters. A Small
Craft Advisory is expected mid week on.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  92  74  94 /  10  30  10  10
Pensacola   77  91  77  93 /  10  30  10  10
Destin      77  89  77  92 /  20  20  10  10
Evergreen   70  94  71  96 /  10  20   0   0
Waynesboro  72  95  72  97 /  30  30   0   0
Camden      72  93  72  96 /  20  10   0   0
Crestview   72  92  72  94 /  10  30  10   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$