307
FXUS64 KMOB 151106
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
606 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 604 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

 - Heat index values of 100-107 are expected today.

 - A High Risk of rip currents is expected for Wednesday and
   Thursday. A High Surf Advisory may also become necessary as
   surf heights near 5 feet.

 - Moderate to strong easterly winds may create hazardous
   conditions for small craft over the open Gulf from late tonight through
   Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 604 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Forecast remains on track. MM/25

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

An upper ridge over the region retreats from the area late this
week and into Saturday as an upper low/trof forms over the far
western Atlantic and advances into the northeast Gulf. A surface
ridge builds into the southeastern states through midweek, setting
up an easterly surface flow which ushers drier air into the
forecast area. Isolated showers and storms will be possible over
the coastal counties Tuesday afternoon with the seabreeze, but
otherwise subsidence associated with the upper ridge will suppress
convective development. The easterly surface flow with the
building surface ridge strengthens mainly over the marine area
Tuesday night into Wednesday, and isolated to scattered convection
develops in response over the marine area which may affect mainly
coastal portions of Alabama. Dry conditions otherwise prevail
through Friday, then slight chance to chance pops return to the
forecast on Saturday as the upper low progresses into the
northeastern Gulf along with a modest surface reflection trof and
improving deep layer moisture. Chance to likely pops follow for
Sunday as the upper low looks to slowly progress a bit further
across the Gulf along with deep layer moisture continuing to
increase.

A low risk of rip currents on Tuesday is expected to quickly
increase to a High Risk for Wednesday and Thursday, then a
moderate risk follows for Friday. As noted by the previous shift,
will need to monitor surf heights which are expected to increase
to 4-5 feet on Wednesday and Thursday. Should these increase
further, then a High Surf Advisory would likely become necessary
for these days. Heat index values of 100-107 are expected for
Tuesday, but otherwise a combination of somewhat cooler daytime
highs and/or lower surface dewpoints will limit heat index
values. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

VFR flight category generally prevails across the region through
tonight. Winds out of the north this morning less than 5 knots
gradually turn easterly this afternoon at 5 to 10 knots. Winds
become light less than 5 knots after sunset, gradually increasing
to 5 to 10 knots over the interior and 10 to 15 knots near the
coast late in the overnight tonight. MM/25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Light to moderate easterly to southeasterly flow becomes
established today, becoming strong Wednesday into Thursday. Winds
relax to light to occasionally moderate easterlies to end the week.
1 foot seas today increase quickly Wednesday to 4 to 7 feet. A Small
Craft Advisory remains in effect for the marine waters late Tuesday
night through Thursday afternoon. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      94  75  91  71 /  20  10  10   0
Pensacola   93  77  91  73 /  10  10   0   0
Destin      92  77  91  73 /  10  10   0   0
Evergreen   97  73  91  65 /   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  97  73  94  66 /   0   0   0   0
Camden      97  74  93  66 /   0   0   0   0
Crestview   94  74  90  68 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Wednesday to 4 PM CDT Thursday
     for GMZ650-655-670-675.

&&

$$