950
FXUS64 KMOB 081834
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
134 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 134 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

 - Moderate risk of rip currents today through Wednesday Night
   for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

 - Increasing chances for showers and storms late this week into
   the weekend with daily risks for localized flooding from heavy
   rainfall and a few strong thunderstorms capable of producing
   strong wind gusts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

A strong surface ridge across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern
U.S. will keep the pressure gradient tight across our area with
moderate winds over the northern Gulf. These higher winds have
resulted in a Moderate Risk of rip currents along our area beaches
today, and this risk is expected to continue through midweek.
After we receive the 12z RCMOS Probability guidance later this
afternoon, we may have to increase the risk to High.

The combination of the surface ridge and an upper ridge over the
region will keep our area rainfree tonight through Wednesday
afternoon. This ridge will then breakdown as a shortwave passes
over the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi River regions
Wednesday night into Thursday. In addition, we are looking at a
weak upper trough to form over the northwest Gulf, eastern Texas
and Louisiana on Thursday and carry forward in the weekend. This
will allow deep southerly to southwesterly flow to increase PWATs
back to around 2.1-2.25", resulting in a substantial increase in
precipitation through the remainder of the week. At time time we
are expecting scattered to numerous showers and storms on Thursday
(potentially widespread across our coastal communities), followed
by numerous widespread coverage on Friday and Saturday. We can`t
rule out isolated instances of flooding the latter half of the
week where storms possibly train or sit over the same areas for
prolonged periods, with the greatest risk south of Highway 84.

High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday ranging from 89-94
degrees will lower a couple of degrees the rest of the week as
cloud cover and rain chances increase. Low temperatures should
remain in the lower to middle 70s through the forecast. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through Wednesday morning along with
light easterly winds. /22

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 134 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Light to moderate easterly flow will persist through early
Wednesday afternoon and small craft operators on the Gulf should
exercise caution. Light onshore flow returns for the rest of the
week into the weekend. Seas around 2 to 3 feet will subside to
around 1 foot Thursday through the remainder of the forecast.
Waterspouts are possible early each morning. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      74  91  74  89 /   0  10  20  80
Pensacola   77  91  77  89 /   0  10  40  70
Destin      77  91  78  88 /   0  10  40  70
Evergreen   72  94  72  93 /   0   0  10  60
Waynesboro  72  95  72  95 /   0   0   0  40
Camden      72  93  73  93 /   0   0   0  40
Crestview   73  92  73  91 /   0   0  10  80

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$