837
FXUS64 KMOB 120642
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1242 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1238 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

 - Patchy to areas of frost will develop overnight across inland
   communities.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1238 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Another clear, chilly night on tap with several spots around the
area already falling to the freezing mark as of 05z. Those outside
viewing the aurora earlier this evening can attest that a jacket was
definitely necessary given the falling temperatures. We already had
to adjust the overnight temperatures downward across a good chunk of
the area as the guidance was a few degrees too warm in comparison to
the ongoing conditions, especially across coastal Alabama. Still
anticipate the development of patchy frost across inland communities
overnight. Other than that, the forecast through the weekend is
on track.

Not expecting any rain through the weekend in the current pattern.
That said, the upper level pattern begins to break down Sunday into
early next week as a quick-hitting upper low skirts across the Great
Lakes region. At the same time, an upper low slides into the Desert
Southwest with a trough swinging into the Pacific Northwest on the
heels of that low. As a result, flow aloft turns more zonal for our
area late in the weekend through early next week. However, the
interaction of all of the aforementioned features aloft continues to
result in large spread in the forecast guidance, especially beyond
Tuesday. These interactions aloft are leading to large differences
down at the surface as well with a large spread in temperatures and
precipitation solutions. A weak surface low (associated with the
upper low that moved into the Desert Southwest) may develop over the
Plains early in the week and its weak front may try to dive into the
area Tuesday into Wednesday...or it could be closer to Thursday. The
latter solution leans toward more of a heavy rain signal whereas the
former solution leads to very little rain with the frontal passage.
All that said, there is low confidence in the forecast for the
Tuesday through Thursday timeframe (especially the PoPs) for now.

Beach Forecast - Rip current risk remains low through early next
week in this pattern. 07/mb

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1132 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF cycle. 07/mb

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1238 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

No impacts expected through early next week. 07/mb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      72  51  76  52 /   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   70  54  74  53 /   0   0   0   0
Destin      69  55  73  57 /   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   72  46  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  72  47  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
Camden      70  45  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
Crestview   70  45  76  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$