959
FXUS64 KMOB 011741
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1241 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

 - Severe storms are possible this afternoon and the main threat
   will be damaging winds. Heavy rainfall in storms may lead to
   additional flash flooding.

 - Heat Risk Concerns: Heat indices of 100-105 expected today and
   tomorrow across much of the area.

 - HIGH risk of rip currents Wednesday through at least Friday
   for the coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1121 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Our active weather pattern continues with westerly to
northwesterly flow aloft setting up over the area in response to a
trough transiting the Mid-Atlantic states the next few days. A
back door cold front moves across the area Wednesday in response
to this trough, and will allow for drier, cooler air to infiltrate
the area mid to late week. Expect scattered to numerous showers
and storms the next couple days, with rain chances dwindling
significantly mid to late week. Southeast Mississippi may hang on
to some small rain chances Wednesday before the front is fully
through the area. Afternoon temperatures in the lower to middle
90`s today and tomorrow become near or just below seasonable norms
in the 80`s Wednesday through the weekend. Afternoon heat indices
once again top out in the 100 to 105 range today and Tuesday.

Some strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon into the
evening hours, best chances near and north of the Highway 84
corridor. Generally weak shear around 15 to 25 knots over the
interior, weaker towards the coast, coupled with the passing
shortwave and 4,000 to 5,000j/kg of CAPE should allow for loosely
organized clusters of storms to develop this afternoon. There`ll
likely be two areas of focus, with the first being on an eventual
MCS to develop north of the area in northern Alabama that sags
southward with time, likely reaching our forecast area late
afternoon into the evening hours. This will have the best threat
for any strong to severe storms owing to the "stronger" shear with
primary hazard being damaging wind gusts. Further south nearer
the coast, afternoon thunderstorms will likely fire off on
whatever sea breeze boundary tries to work its way inland. Shear
is much weaker down south, and the expectation would be for more
pulse type storms than anything. These still could pose a threat
for small hail and/or damaging wind gusts in any microbursts. Any
storms today will pose the potential for heavy rainfall and
localized flash flooding, particularly if storms can remain
stationary or train over the same locations or areas that were
hard hit the past week. While some risk for strong storms persists
Tuesday, weak shear should preclude any organized severe risk
with main hazards being gusty winds and small hail. Once again,
heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding is possible Tuesday
with any slow moving storms. MM/25

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

VFR conditions generally prevail through the period. We are still
expecting scattered thunderstorms to develop late this afternoon
(around 21z), with periods of MVFR/IFR conditions along with
gusty, erratic winds near the storms. Westerly to southwesterly
winds 5-10 knots will generally occur along the coast this
afternoon, becoming variable sunset. /22

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1121 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Light to moderate westerly to southwesterly flow persists today.
Winds shift to northerly and then easterly Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning, strengthening to moderate to occasionally
strong flow through the end of the week. Seas increase to 5 to 7
feet by mid week. Southeasterly flow develops Friday through much
of the weekend. Expect locally higher winds and seas near
thunderstorms. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      92  74  91  69 /  50  30  50  60
Pensacola   91  76  91  70 /  40  20  40  60
Destin      88  77  89  70 /  30  10  40  60
Evergreen   94  73  92  65 /  50  30  50  40
Waynesboro  94  73  91  67 /  60  30  50  30
Camden      93  73  89  64 /  50  30  30  30
Crestview   94  73  93  65 /  50  20  50  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$