907
FXUS64 KMOB 312343
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
643 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 642 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

- A few afternoon storms over the weekend may produce strong to
  locally damaging wind gusts, heavy rainfall, and frequent cloud
  to ground lightning.

- A High Risk of rip currents is expected to return this weekend
  for all area beaches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Saturday Through Monday...a somewhat opening upper low moves from
over the Central Plains to the Mid West, taking an associated
surface low with. I say somewhat opening, become some guidance is
maintaining an upper low over the Midwest. As this system moves
east, the base digs south over the Southeast, shifting an upper
ridge that is pushing east over the northern Gulf coast back west.
A trailing weak cold front moves south over the Lower Mississippi
River Valley, then the western half of the Southeast over the
weekend into the coming week. Guidance is advertising this front
moving southeast across the forecast area late Saturday into
Sunday before stalling southeast of the forecast area by Monday.
This front is expected to usher in mainly a drier airmass over the
forecast area, as apposed to cooler temperatures. Precipitable
h20 values drop from the 2.1"-2.3" range today into Saturday drop
into the 1.3"- 1.5" range by Monday morning. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms expected today will decrease and shift
east Saturday, then southeast Saturday night on with the drop in
deep layer moisture. The eastward shift is due to an upper level
shortwave moving southeast across the forecast area later today
through tonight. Pulse type severe storms remain a possibility
this afternoon, shifting south to the coast by Sunday.

Even with the upper ridge moving off, the drier airmass will allow
for better daytime heating, keeping high temperatures around
seasonal norms over the western half of the forecast area (around
90 to low 90s). The eastern half of the forecast area sees a drop
in high temperatures over the weekend, to the upper 80s to near
90, as the better chance of rain shifts east. The drop in moisture
levels will allow for better overnight cooling, mainly Sunday on,
with low temperatures in the mid to upper 70s tonight dropping
into the low 70s inland from the coast Sunday and Monday, though
near coastal and coastal low temperatures remain in the upper 70s.
Heat indices drop with the decrease in moisture levels, dropping
to below 100 by Monday.

Monday night on...the upper low over the Midwest meanders east
into mid week before getting deflected northeast by an upper ridge
off the East Coast the end of the week. This low`s associated
surface low will help to maintain dry northwesterly flow over the
forecast area into Wednesday, keeping a dry forecast. The end of
the week, as the upper low moves off, the upper high over the
Plains builds east over the Southeast, a surface ridge builds over
the Southeast, restoring onshore flow to the Southeast and
increasing moisture levels. Rain chances see a bit of an increase
the end of the week, though with the upper ridge building east
over the Southeast, this increase is small. Temperatures see a
rise with the increase in influence from the upper ridge, back to
above seasonal norms. With moisture levels slow to increase, the
rise in heat indices is also slow, rising to the 100-107 range by
Friday.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, the
approaching surface boundary will interact with a surface ridge
over the Gulf, creating a tighter pressure gradient along the
coast and moderate west to southwest winds. This will increase the
Rip Risk to High by late Saturday, with the Florida coast seeing
the uptick first. Winds begin to ease Monday, with a Moderate Rip
Risk Monday dropping to Low by Tuesday. /16

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this evening will
bring temporarily reductions to flight categories and potentially
produce variable and strong wind gusts. This convection is
expected to dissipate by midnight tonight, followed by mainly dry
conditions through the remainder of the TAF cycle. Light and
variable tonight will become west to southwest 7-12 knots around
mid-morning Saturday with gusts to around 20 knots along the
coast. /22

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 136 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Light to moderate westerly winds becomes a moderate to
occasionally strong westerly to southwesterly flow for Saturday
night through Sunday before diminishing on Monday. Scattered to
numerous showers and storms become possible through late week,
with best chances this weekend. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      74  91  75  91 /  30  30  40  40
Pensacola   78  89  78  89 /  50  40  60  70
Destin      78  88  78  88 /  60  70  70  90
Evergreen   72  89  72  90 /  50  40  50  40
Waynesboro  73  92  73  92 /  30  30  40  10
Camden      73  88  72  89 /  50  40  50  20
Crestview   73  88  74  89 /  50  70  60  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Saturday afternoon through late
     Sunday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Saturday afternoon through late
     Sunday night for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$