446
FXUS64 KMOB 281749
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1249 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1247 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

 - A much drier airmass persists across the area, leading to an
   elevated fire danger risk through Tuesday.

 - A LOW risk of rip currents continues through Tuesday before
   increasing to a HIGH risk Thursday for all area beaches.

 - Rain chances increase by late week and into the upcoming
   weekend. Heavy rainfall, which could lead to an increased
   potential for flooding, is possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1034 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

The forecast remains fairly straightforward the next few days as
dry weather persists through midweek. Afternoon highs top out near
or just above normal in the middle to upper 80`s through
Wednesday, with a few spots touching 90 degrees any given day.
Overnight lows follow a steady warming trend as we begin to advect
moisture back into the area. One more night of upper 50`s to lower
60`s exists for the area tonight, with upper 60`s inland and lower
70`s nearer the coast returning Wednesday night.

Our upper pattern changes quite a bit as we head into late week
and the weekend, shifting us from being dry and relatively cool to
wet and stormy. A trough split across the gulf from our previous
trough will gradually retrograde westward, bringing the area back
into a deep southerly fetch of moisture off the gulf. Upper
ridging attempts to develop east of this late week, further
reinforcing that southerly deep layer flow. This along with
several weak shortwaves moving across the area should set the
stage for a rather wet period Thursday through this weekend,
potentially persisting into early next week. It`s difficult to
pinpoint any details on rainfall amounts and likewise flooding
concerns. However, with atmospheric profiles depicting deep, warm
moist air and the expectation for efficient warm rain processes
will promote the potential for very heavy rainfall and at least
localized flooding concerns with any storms.

Thanks to the strengthening onshore winds late week into the
weekend we will see an increase in the rip current risk for our AL
and FL panhandle beaches. We go from a Low risk today to a
Moderate risk Wednesday. A High risk for strong rip currents
follows for Thursday into the weekend. MM/25

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. /13

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1034 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Light and variable flow continues through Tuesday. A moderate to
occasionally strong onshore flow develops Wednesday, persisting
through the weekend. Seas increase to 3-6 feet late week into the
weekend. Small Craft should exercise caution beginning Wednesday
night. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      64  90  66  89 /   0   0   0  20
Pensacola   67  88  73  87 /   0   0   0  20
Destin      69  87  73  87 /   0   0   0  20
Evergreen   58  90  60  90 /   0   0   0  10
Waynesboro  59  90  60  90 /   0   0   0   0
Camden      57  88  59  91 /   0   0   0   0
Crestview   59  90  65  89 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$