620
FXUS64 KMOB 111132
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
632 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 632 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

- Heat indices around 100-107 degrees are expected today,
  increasing to 105-111 degrees by Friday.

- A Moderate risk of rip currents returns to Florida beaches
  Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 632 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

The overall forecast for today remains on track. The 00z Rip
Current Risk probability guidance is now showing a Moderate risk
for the Florida beaches starting Wednesday afternoon where we
expect slightly higher west-southwesterly winds and significant
wave heights. This Moderate risk will continue through Thursday
before settling back to Low. /22

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Through Thursday night, an upper level shortwave trough digging
off the East Coast shifts an upper high over the northern Gulf
Coast, westward, to over the northwestern Gulf Coast. A surface
high over the eastern Gulf shifts west to over the central Gulf in
response, with a drier airmass over the Gulf (precipitable h20
values less than 1.5") shifting north over the northern Gulf and
Lower Mississippi River Valley. This displaces the moist airmass
over the forecast area eastward to varying extents, depending upon
the model. Add in an upper level shortwave trough passing over
the northeast side of the upper ridge Wednesday, and a dry,
subsidence caused day Tuesday sees isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms over the eastern half of the forecast area
Wednesday. Thursday, PoPs drop to isolated, mainly over areas
southeast of I-65 as moisture levels drop and upper subsidence
returns and builds east a bit, even as the upper high shifts west.

Temperatures see a bit of an increase with dropping moisture
levels, especially over the western half of the forecast area
along with upper subsidence increasing a bit with the building
upper high. High temperatures away from the coast rise from the
92-97 degree range Tuesday rise into the 94 to 99 degree range
Thursday. Along the coast, high temperatures around 90 are
expected through mid week. Heat indices rise from the 100-107
degree range over most of the forecast area Tuesday rise into the
105 to 110 degree range Thursday. A Heat Advisory will likely be
needed Wednesday, though the extent is hard to pin down at this
time.

Friday though the weekend, The upper ridge centered over the
northwestern Gulf coast shifts north, to over the Southern/Central
Plains, surface high pressure shifts to over the Southern Plains
in response. As the upper high moves off over the central Conus,
increased moisture over the eastern half of the Southeast shifts
west over the region (and the forecast area), but an upper
building east over the Southeast will keep good upper subsidence
over the region, helping to limit PoPs to isolated to low end
scattered at best over the forecast area into the coming week.
Temperatures see a small uptick into the weekend, along with Heat
Indices..

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, a general
Low Risk is expected into mid week, with the onshore flow less
organized. An uptick to a low Moderate is indicated for the end of
the week, especially over our Florida beaches. /16

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through tonight. /22

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Light southwesterly to westerly winds will occur tonight through
the remainder of the week as a surface high pressure area remains
across the eastern Gulf. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      92  76  93  77 /  10   0  20   0
Pensacola   91  79  93  79 /  20  10  20   0
Destin      90  80  91  80 /  10   0  10   0
Evergreen   94  75  94  75 /  10  10  30  10
Waynesboro  96  75  97  75 /  10   0  10  10
Camden      92  75  93  76 /  10   0  20   0
Crestview   94  75  95  75 /  10   0  30   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$