059
FXUS64 KMOB 021814
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1214 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1211 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

 - A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents exists at all area
   beaches through Tuesday. Surf heights up to 5 feet are
   expected through Tuesday, with rough surf expected.

 - Moderate to strong easterly winds will create hazardous
   conditions for small craft through midweek.

 - A cold front will move through the area on Wednesday into Thursday,
   with showers and thunderstorms likely across the area. The
   threat for severe thunderstorms is low at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1211 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Through Thursday, an upper low moving east over the northern/central
Plains with a trough stretching south over the southern Plains
contends with an upper ridge over the eastern Conus and another
upper low that develops off the East Coast (from the upper trough
that passed yesterday). As the Plains system pushes east, the upper
ridge deflects the main part of the system northeast. Guidance is
advertising the trough south of the main system taking a negative
tilt as it moves over the Lower Mississippi River Valley to over
the Southeast, but with the northeast deflection of the main system,
the better enhancement of the dynamics gets deflected generally
north of us here on the northern Gulf coast. Timing of this system
is a bit earlier than yesterday, with the initial rainshowers and
thunderstorms developing on the north-central Gulf coast Tuesday
night. Overnight Tuesday night, we have MLCapes of 800-1300J/kg
along with EBWD shear around 35kts. Guidance is advertising an 850mb
passing over the western half of the Southeast, with the strongest
part of the jet being over the northern part of the region and
Tennessee River Valley. The jet is strong enough for some guidance
to advertise Tds increasing into the low 70s into Wednesday, but
that is Wednesday. Back to Tuesday night, guidance is advertising 0-
1km helicities > 100m^s/2^s touching areas north of Highway 84. All
in all, there is a low chance of rowdy storms Tuesday night, with
the best chance being north of Highway 84. Low but feel not zero.
Wind damage, maybe a spinner, are the primary threats. Mid level
lapse rates are low (helped buy the instability limiting mid level
height falls being very, very limited over the northern Gulf Coast),
so the chance of large hail is expected to be small. Timing is soon
after sunset over western portions of the forecast area moving to
near the Tombigbee River by sunrise Wednesday. Heading into
Wednesday, the increased dewpoints help instability to rise a bit
(MLCapes rising into the 1000-1500J/kg range), but with the upper
dynamics moving off, the better wind shear and upper support moves
east or northeast, respectively, of the forecast area. The risk of
rowdy storms decreases though the morning as the instability and
dynamics separate. Still a possibility, though, with wind damage the
primary threat. Timing still remains an issue, both with everything
getting started as the tail end of the trough passes over the
Southeast, along with path. Will continue to monitor. As of this
writing, SPC has placed the forecast area under a general thunder
coverage for Tuesday night through Wednesday.

Later Wednesday through Thursday night, a weakening cold front
approaches the forecast area, eventually stalling over the forecast
area. So far, using the dew point front as a guide, drier air
approaches the northwestern quarter of the forecast area by Thursday
evening and stalling. Comparing the deterministic and ensembles,
there continues to be inconsistency. There is consistency in
temperatures remain above seasonal norms. High temperatures in the
upper 70s to low 80s. Low temperatures in the 60s tonight rise into
the mid/upper 60s Tuesday night. With a drop overall in deep layer
moisture and clearing as the system passes, low temperatures drop
into the around 50 north of Highway 84 to upper 50s, near 60 along
the coast by Thursday night.

Friday through the weekend, another upper level shortwave trough
approaches the Southeast. With inconsistency in the amount of
moisture drop after mid-weeks system passage, PoPs are inconsistent
in how high, though consistent in better PoPs being southeast of
Interstate 65. The stalled front moves southeast after it passes,
though the question is how far. Ensemble guidance is advertising a
drop in temperatures into the weekend, to around or below
seasonal norms.

Taking a look at coastal areas, a High Risk of rip currents is
maintained into Tuesday night, before decreasing to Moderate
Wednesday into Thursday as east to southeast flow decreases and
tidal cycle heads towards a neap tide.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Mainly MVFR ceilings across much of the western Florida panhandle,
southwest Alabama and southeast Mississippi improve to VFR this
afternoon. MVFR ceilings then redevelop across the area during the
late night and early morning hours, then improve somewhat to
MVFR/VFR ceilings towards late morning on Tuesday. Easterly winds
around 10 knots diminish to mostly around 5 knots this evening,
then increase to around 10 knots Tuesday morning. Winds will
potentially be a bit higher near the coast through the period.
/29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1211 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

A moderate to strong easterly flow continues through Tuesday with
a tight pressure gradient over the northern Gulf. Winds will
shift southeasterly Tuesday night as a system approaches the area
from the west. Winds gradually decrease and turn southerly
Wednesday, becoming offshore Wednesday night through the weekend.
Seas remain near 5-7 feet today and will gradually decrease
throughout the week.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      65  80  67  82 /   0  50  60  60
Pensacola   68  79  70  81 /   0  20  70  60
Destin      68  80  70  80 /   0  10  60  70
Evergreen   61  80  64  80 /   0  20  50  90
Waynesboro  61  80  64  80 /   0  30  70  60
Camden      62  78  64  78 /   0  10  60  90
Crestview   63  82  66  81 /   0  20  50  80

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$