587
FXUS64 KMOB 141124
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
624 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 617 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

- Hot conditions expected through Wednesday of next week. Heat
  advisories remain in effect on Friday for heat indices up to
  112. Future heat advisories will likely be necessary through
  Wednesday of next week.

- Low risk of rip currents continues through the weekend with a
  Moderate risk returning for Florida Panhandle beaches early next
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 617 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

At sunrise, weak rainshowers have begun developing near the
Alabama coast. This is as expected. No updates needed at this
time.
/16

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

A large upper ridge centered over the region and stretching to
across the northern Plains gradually becomes oriented across much
of the southern CONUS over the weekend. A series of modest
shortwaves rotating through the upper level pattern allow for a
minor weakness in the upper ridge to develop mainly over the
eastern half of the forecast area on Friday and become more centered
over the area on Saturday. This allows for somewhat more
convection to develop each afternoon, and have gone with slight
chance to chance pops on Friday along and east of I-65, then
including a bit more of the area on Saturday. The upper level
weakness looks to mostly dissipate by Sunday but sufficient to
allow for slight chance to chance pops over the southern half of
the area. The upper ridge slowly narrows over the region and
becomes oriented mainly along the northern Gulf coast Monday then
weakens Tuesday along with some shortwaves starting to move
across the area. Monday looks mostly dry except for isolated
convection developing mainly near the coast in the afternoon, then
slight chance to chance pops return to the entire area by Tuesday
with similar rain chances following for Wednesday.

Hot conditions are expected Friday on through Wednesday with
afternoon highs reaching mostly 95 to 100, potentially a bit
hotter Sunday and Monday where some locations mostly over
southeast Mississippi may see highs reach 102. Heat index values
of mostly 108-112 are expected on Friday, and a Heat Advisory
remains in effect for the entire area from 11 am until 8 pm.
Similar heat index values are anticipated each day on through
Wednesday, with additional Heat Advisories likely becoming
necessary. A low risk of rip currents is expected through Monday,
except for a moderate risk of rip currents for the western Florida
panhandle on Monday. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected this morning over most of the
forecast area. Some guidance is advertising isolated rainshowers
and thunderstorms developing over and south of the coast towards
sunrise. Local drops to MVFR levels are possible in this
convection. Another round of convection is expected southeast of
I-65 in the late morning and afternoon hours. Isolated to
scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms may being local drops in
conditions to low end MVFR levels. Light southwesterly winds will
shift to southerly 5 to 10 knots during the afternoon as a
seabreeze develops and moves inland.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 202 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

A light to occasionally moderate diurnal flow pattern
persists across the marine waters through this weekend, with light
to moderate westerly flow becoming established early next week.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms can be expected each
morning. No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and
seas possible near thunderstorms.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      96  76  97  76 /  20   0  20  10
Pensacola   95  79  95  79 /  30   0  30  10
Destin      93  81  93  81 /  20  10  30  10
Evergreen   98  75  98  74 /  30  20  40  10
Waynesboro 100  75 101  74 /  10   0  10  10
Camden      96  76  96  74 /  20  10  20   0
Crestview   97  76  97  75 /  30  10  50  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for ALZ051>060-261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$