816
FXUS64 KMOB 071145
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
645 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 639 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

 - HIGH risk of rip currents continues through tonight for the
   coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches becoming Moderate
   Sunday.

 - Rain chances remain elevated this weekend, particularly over
   the western half of the local area. Heavy rainfall is possible,
   which could lead to localized flooding concerns.

 - Heat indices may reach the 100 degree mark by the middle of next
   week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 644 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

The forecast is generally on track with no changes planned at the
moment. /29

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Through Tuesday...an upper level shortwave trough moves around the
top of an upper ridge centered over the Gulf through Sunday. A
closed upper low over the Plains swings around the north side of the
same upper ridge, eventually connecting with more energy over the
eastern Conus. This digs an deep upper trough along the Eastern
Seaboard, shifting the upper ridge west to over the Southern Plains.
A drier airmass (precipitable h20 values dropping to 1.5"-1.7")
moves over the forecast area, replacing the current soupy airmass
(with precipitable h20 values in the 2.2"-2.4" range). With a bit of
shortwave energy around late tonight and more passing during the day
Sunday, a few early morning showers, maybe a thunderstorm or two are
possible around sunrise Sunday, mainly west of the Alabama River.
This activity becomes more widespread in coverage in the
afternoon, along with spreading farther east. Instability is
decent, with SBCapes rising into the 1500-200J/kg range in the
afternoon. Combined with the soupy airmass bringing efficient
rainers, water issues may again be a problem Sunday, especially if
we receive training cells interacting with a surface boundary. A
few strong to marginally severe storms are also possible, but are
expected to be of the pulse type bringing strong downbursts.

Temperatures creep up into Tuesday, from below seasonal high
temperatures in low to mid 80s Sunday to above seasonal upper 80s to
low 90s. Low temperatures remain in the low to mid 70s into Tuesday.

Tuesday night on...the contention between the Southern Plains upper
high and the East Coast upper trough continues, with the Plains
upper high winning as it builds slowly east over the Mississippi
River. Moisture levels also increase through the latter half of the
week, with isolated to scattered, mainly afternoon showers and
thunderstorms returning by the end of the week as daytime heating
works with increasing moisture levels increases instability to
override upper subsidence from the building upper ridge.
Temperatures increase through the period, with high temperatures in
the 89 to 94 degree range by Friday. Heat indices also creep up,
rising to around 100 by Thursday and into the 100 to 105 degree
range for Friday.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, consistent
onshore flow continues through the forecast, but weakens with the
shifting upper pattern. The tidal range decreases through the week,
with a current High overnight dropping to low by Monday. By the
middle of the coming week, the tidal range begins to increase,
bringing a Moderate Risk back to the forecast area.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Precipitation increases in coverage through mid afternoon mainly
along and west of I-65, then diminishes to dry conditions this
evening. Primarily IFR to MVFR conditions improve to VFR first
over eastern portions of the area beginning late morning, then
over the remainder of the area during the afternoon. Patchy fog
will be possible early this morning and again late tonight.
Southerly winds at 5-10 knots develop today then diminish to a
light and variable flow this evening. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

A light to moderate south to southeast flow today becomes
southeasterly on Monday. A brief period of easterly flow on
Tuesday returns to south to southeast by the middle of next week.
/29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      85  73  87  71 /  70  10  10   0
Pensacola   85  76  87  75 /  40  10   0   0
Destin      85  75  87  75 /  20  10   0   0
Evergreen   84  70  88  70 /  80  20  20  10
Waynesboro  86  72  86  70 /  80  30  40  10
Camden      82  71  85  70 /  90  30  30  10
Crestview   86  70  90  71 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT this morning for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT this morning for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$