653
FXUS64 KMOB 081151
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
651 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 646 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

 - Moderate risk of rip currents today through Wednesday Night
   for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

 - Increasing chances for showers and storms late this week into
   the weekend with daily risks for localized flooding from heavy
   rainfall and a few strong thunderstorms capable of producing
   strong wind gusts.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 646 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Performed a brief gridded update this morning to bring in the
latest short-range guidance. Calm overall (definitely compared to
this time yesterday) thanks to drier air filtering into the
region. GOES-16 Precipitable Water highlights this well with
1.4-1.6" PW`s building inot the area from the northeast. This
mid-level suppression will help to cap afternoon shower/storm
coverage today, however, could see an isolated shower or storm
near the coast from the seabreeze (where localized greater forcing
may try to overcome the drier air/suppression aloft) or across
southeast Mississippi where there is noticably greater moisture
lingering. But overall, mainly quiet with no adjustments to highs
needed - headed right into the low 90`s. KLG

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

A much tamer pattern sets up for the next couple days as drier air
filters into the area. Overall temperatures will be closer to
seasonable norms with highs in the upper 80`s to lower 90`s and
lows in the lower to middle 70`s. Rain chances will be minimal the
next couple days, with perhaps an isolated shower or storm across
southeast Mississippi today. With increasing easterly flow along
the coast the rip current risk increases to a Moderate risk
Tuesday into Wednesday, gradually relaxing back to a Low risk for
Thursday into the weekend.

The latter part of the week we will see a pattern change with
upper troughing gradually pushing into the region and upper
ridging breaking down. This will allow for scattered to numerous
showers and storms to return to the forecast areawide each
afternoon into the weekend. With deep layer moisture increasing
and much higher PWATs settling in, we`ll likely see storms that
are efficient rainfall producers. While there isn`t a clear signal
for any potential of flash flooding, I can`t rule out isolated
instances of flooding where any storms can train or sit over the
same areas for prolonged periods. MM/25

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Expect VFR conditions for all area terminals through the forecast
cycle. Expecting a mainly dry day today, but can`t rule out a very
isolated SHRA across the coast. Probs are not enough to mention
in area TAF`s, but otherwise, coastal TAF sites are expected to
see an increase in easterly winds later this afternoon, reaching
15-20kts at times before dissipating after sunset with VFR
prevailing. KLG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

LIght to moderate easterly flow becomes established overnight
tonight through Wednesday. Small craft should exercise caution
through early this afternoon and again Wednesday morning into early
Wednesday afternoon. Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow
returns for the rest of the week into the weekend. Seas increase to
around 2 to 3 feet today, relaxing back to 1 to 2 feet late
Wednesday through the rest of the week. Waterspouts are possible
early each morning. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      90  74  90  73 /  10  10  30  10
Pensacola   90  77  90  77 /  10  10  20  20
Destin      91  77  90  78 /   0  10  30  30
Evergreen   93  72  94  71 /   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  94  72  95  72 /  10   0   0   0
Camden      93  73  94  72 /   0   0   0   0
Crestview   92  73  92  73 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$