917
FXUS64 KMOB 142343
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
643 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 106 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

The main concern through the work week is a developing surface low
off the east coast of Florida which is anticipated to move across
the Florida peninsula and into the northeastern Gulf by late
Tuesday. There is the potential that this system could develop into
a tropical system as it continues westward or west-northwestward
across the northeastern and north central Gulf through late week.
The National Hurricane Center currently has a 20% chance of
tropical development within the next 48 hours and a 30% chance
over the next 7 days. Regardless of how much this system develops,
rain chances increase to likely to categorical pops for most of
the area by Wednesday, with mostly categorical pops for Thursday
and Friday. Rainfall totals from Wednesday through Friday range
from near 1 inch well inland to around 2 inches near the coast,
and will need to monitor for potential flooding concerns
particularly over the southern portion of the area. Likely pops
prevail for Saturday through Monday as abundant deep layer
moisture remains in place over the region in the wake of the
potential tropical system. In the near term, another concern will
be heat index values on Tuesday which look to mostly top out
between 102 and 107, with the higher values over the southern half
of the area and just shy of Heat Advisory criteria (108). For
now, will continue to monitor but cannot rule out that a Heat
Advisory may become necessary for Tuesday afternoon. A low risk of
rip currents is expected through Wednesday, then a moderate risk
follows for Wednesday night. A HIGH risk of rip currents is
anticipated for Thursday through Friday. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

VFR conditions generally expected at the terminals through the
period. Isolated storms will dwindle after sunset with winds
becoming light and variable overnight. 07/mb

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 106 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

A light to moderate westerly to northerly flow prevails through
Tuesday. A southeasterly flow develops on Wednesday then becomes
southerly for Thursday into Friday with a southwesterly flow
expected for Saturday. A low pressure system, potentially a
tropical system, may move across the area later this week and
bring stronger winds and higher seas. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      75  96  75  93  73  88  75  88 /  10  30  30  80  60  90  50  90
Pensacola   78  96  78  92  77  88  78  89 /  10  40  50  90  60  90  50  80
Destin      81  96  80  91  79  89  80  90 /  20  50  60  90  60  90  50  80
Evergreen   73  98  74  95  73  91  73  91 /  10  30  30  80  30  80  20  80
Waynesboro  73  97  74  96  73  91  72  90 /  10  20  10  60  30  80  20  80
Camden      74  96  74  94  74  90  72  90 /  10  20  20  60  30  80  20  70
Crestview   75  98  74  93  73  90  74  90 /  10  50  40  90  40  90  30  80

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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