918
FXUS64 KMOB 162342
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
642 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 641 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

 - A High Risk of rip currents continues today into Thursday.
   Elevated surf heights to around 4 feet are expected through
   Thursday.

 - Moderate to strong easterly winds will create hazardous
   conditions for small craft over the open Gulf through
   Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Through Saturday...An upper high centered over eastern Tennessee
this morning gets a westward push as an upper low organizing off the
East Coast pushes west over the Southeast. A drier airmass has begun
moving over the eastern edge of the forecast area, driven by
northeasterly flow above the surface between the upper high and low,
and a surface ridge along the eastern edge of the Appalachians.
Precipitable h20 values around 1.5" on the eastern edge of the
forecast area this morning, with the airmass dipping even lower,
to around 1" over the East Coast. This dry air pushes west over
the Southeast, with a dry forecast into Friday. As the upper low
moves near the Florida Atlantic coast, Atlantic moisture begins to
move over the Southeast around the upper low, bringing a tongue
of increased moisture back over the forecast area Saturday into
Saturday night, with guidance varying in the timing and magnitude.
The latest run of the NBM is advertising a slight chance of
afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms along and southeast of
I-65 Saturday afternoon. Have little confidence to change this, so
am letting this ride.

Temperatures remain well above seasonal norms into the weekend, with
high temperatures seeing an upward trend with the decrease in
moisture levels. High temperatures in the around 90 to low 90s
Thursday rise into the mid to upper 90s for Saturday, low 90s along
the coast. Heat Indices remain below 100 Thursday and Friday,
though an uptick in boundary layer moisture later Saturday brings
heat indices in the 100 to 106 degree range Saturday. Low
temperatures drop into the 60s through the Friday night.

Saturday night on, the upper low opens into an upper trough and
shifts east as the weakening upper ridge builds back east over the
Southeast. Some Atlantic moisture moves inland over the Southeast
before the Appalachian ridge weakens. Isolated to scattered, mainly
afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms expected, with temperatures
easing closer to, but remaining above seasonal norms. Heat indices
remain in the 100-105 degree range over most of the forecast area
through the extended.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, the moderate
to strong easterly flow over the northern Gulf weakens through the
end of the week, dropping the Rip Risk to a moderate by Friday and
weak through the weekend.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. /13

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Moderate to strong easterly flow eases into Friday. Winds
become a more diurnally afternoon onshore, night time offshore this
weekend. Seas increase to 3 to 6 feet today, gradually diminishing
through late week. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the
marine waters through Thursday afternoon.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      71  90  69  92 /   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   75  90  74  91 /   0   0   0   0
Destin      74  90  74  90 /   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   68  91  67  96 /   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  69  93  67  96 /   0   0   0   0
Camden      69  91  68  96 /   0   0   0   0
Crestview   69  90  68  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$