Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
980 FXUS64 KMOB 122324 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 624 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 ...New Aviation... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 It will be a temperature and low afternoon relative humidity forecast over the first half of the week as a dry airmass continues to filter in from the north. Typically under these clear sky conditions, we tend to see low temperatures end up being slightly cooler compared to the National Blend of Models (NBM), and high temperatures slightly above the NBM. In addition, drier air aloft mixing down to the surface during the afternoon results in lower afternoon relative humidity compared to the NBM. Therefore, made slight adjustment to the Max/Min temps and afternoon dewpoints through Tuesday. High temperatures will range from 85-90 degrees (around 6-11 degrees above normal) throughout the week before cooling slightly into the lower to middle 80s over the weekend due to increasing cloud cover and rain chances. Low temperatures tonight will be slightly below normal, with lower 50s inland and the middle 50s to around 60 degrees along the immediate coast. Lows will then slowly trend warmer throughout the week, and should be 2-7 degrees above normal midweek, and a whopping 10-15 degrees above normal Saturday night, with middle 60s inland and around 70 degrees along the immediate coast. Meanwhile, the upper trough extending along the eastern Seaboard to the eastern Gulf will move eastward over the western Atlantic Monday night and Tuesday as an upper ridge builds over our region from the west. A large upper trough over the western U.S. midweek will shift eastward the latter half of the week and over the weekend. The 12z Run of the GFS has the axis of this trough crossing over the Mississippi River Saturday night, but the ECMWF lags behind by about 18 hours. Showers and thunderstorms will return for the weekend, but due to timing difference we are only forecasting a 20-30% chance at this time. We may need to increase these chances as we get closer to the event and the timing differences are resolved. Until then, dry weather conditions will remain through Friday night. Beach Forecast: The LOW rip current risk persist through Thursday, and then should trend upward late in the week due to increasing southeasterly winds and breaker heights. /22 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 VFR flight category prevails across the region the rest of tonight into Monday. Winds calm over the next hour or two, with a northerly wind around 5 knots returning by mid-morning Monday. MM/25 && .MARINE... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 A light offshore flow will prevail through Thursday morning, with the exception of a brief onshore flow Wednesday afternoon through mid-evening associated with a diurnal cycle. A light southeasterly to easterly flow will return Thursday afternoon, with winds gradually increasing late in the week. /22 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 54 87 56 87 60 87 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 60 87 61 86 64 85 64 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Destin 63 85 64 86 65 85 65 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 51 88 53 88 55 90 56 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 51 86 53 86 57 86 57 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Camden 51 87 53 88 55 87 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Crestview 48 88 52 90 56 88 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob