955
FXUS64 KMOB 220001
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
701 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 700 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

- Very hot conditions continue today with peak heat indices in the
  108 to 112 range.

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon will continue
  to be capable of producing brief intense rainfall, excessive
  lightning, and strong to damaging wind gusts.

&&

.UPDATE/DISCUSSION...
Issued at 525 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Ongoing this afternoon, keeping a close eye on convection ongoing
generally along and north of the I-10 corridor. Plenty of support
in place for strong to severe thunderstorms, including ample dry
air entrainment per recent GOES-16 Precipitable water, resulting
in extremely high DCAPE across central MS/AL and plenty of
available instability. Environmental favorability for severe
weather is in place, but focus will be on any outflow boundary
and/or seabreeze interactions to individual, pulse-like severe
storms causing damaging downburst winds. REFS guidance/trends
slides all convection south late this afternoon/evening, but not
entirely sure this will happen as they interact with the post-
seabreeze environment along the coast, with low confidence on
this activity sagging south through the evening. If it does, the
severe threat will transition into coastal marine areas around
sunset with ongoing gusty winds the main risks.

Drier air filters into the area tomorrow through Sunday,
resulting in lower forecast PoPs and greater PBL mixing to cause a
reduction in the heat risk. Not anticipating the need for an
advisory tomorrow as heat indices range in the 103-106 range,
still hot though. Could still see an isolated storm along the
seabreeze, but keeping PoPs in the 10-20% range both Saturday and
Sunday afternoons.

Monday into next week, focus shifts to the northwest as we could
likely see distinct PVA/impulses riding around the periphery of
the ridge across the four corners region. This could introduce a
series of long-distant MCS`s from the central MS valley region
into the northern Gulf coast. Something we`ll need to carefully
monitor for Monday and Tuesday.

Mid to late week, we return right back to the typical summertime
pattern but again with ongoing impulses from the north. Afternoon
heat indices remain below criteria/heat risk impacts remain
limited throughout the week with highs in the low 90`s, but PoPs
remain elevated with daily localized strong to isolated severe
storm risks. KLG

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Scattered showers and storms are expected through early to mid
evening across portions of the area. A few of the TAF sites may
experience brief drops to MVFR or lower conditions and gusty winds
with this activity through around 01-02Z, though isolated strong to
severe storms may persist a bit longer over the interior. Additional
showers and storms cannot be ruled out along the immediate coast
late tonight into early Saturday. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected to prevail through the period. Light northerly flow is
expected for Saturday, turning more southerly or southwesterly along
the coast at around 8-12 knots in the afternoon. JGC/98

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas
possible near thunderstorms. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      74  95  74  96 /  30  10   0  20
Pensacola   78  93  78  95 /  20  20   0  20
Destin      79  91  79  93 /  40  20  10  10
Evergreen   71  97  71  98 /  40  10   0  10
Waynesboro  72  99  73 100 /  30   0   0   0
Camden      72  97  72  96 /  20   0   0  10
Crestview   73  96  72  97 /  30  20  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...None.
&&

$$