153
FXUS64 KMOB 040722
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
122 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

...New MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 121 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

 - A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents exists at all area
   beaches through this afternoon.

 - A cold front will move into the area today, with a few periods
   of rainshowers and thunderstorms across the area. The threat
   for severe thunderstorms is low at this time.

 - A much cooler and drier airmass moves into the area this
   weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1143 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

A cold front will continue to slowly move east tonight into
Wednesday. The front will stall across northwest portions of the
area Wednesday into Thursday as it becomes parallel to the mid and
upper flow. Scattered light rain showers will continue overnight
with patchy dense fog developing across portions of southeast
Mississippi and southwest Alabama due to very moist conditions. A
dense fog advisory has been issued for parts of southeast
Mississippi and southwest Alabama. The highest rain chances will
likely be Wednesday afternoon as the frontal boundary moves into
the area, mainly northwest of I-65. No severe thunderstorms are
expected. However, forcing rapidly weakens along the front as the
main energy pulls well off the north. As a result, any showers
and thunderstorms that advance into the area will weaken as they
move east. The front finally moves east Thursday night into
Friday as a stronger shortwave moves east across the Tennessee
Valley. A few showers will be possible on Friday as the front
pushes east, however most areas will remain dry. Another fast
moving system may approach the area late in the weekend into early
next week. However, there is a large spread in the models this
far out and will maintain a dry forecast for now.

A much cooler and drier airmass moves into the area for the
weekend into early next week High temps on Sunday will be in the
mid and upper 60s with upper 60s to around 70 Monday and Tuesday
Lows in the mid and upper 30s across far northern areas will be
possible Saturday night through Tuesday night. /13

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1143 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

MVFR to IFR ceilings are currently in place across much
of the local area. Throughout the overnight hours, ceilings are
expected to lower even further, possibly down to LIFR in spots. In
addition, patchy to areas of fog, some of which could be dense, is
expected to develop mainly for areas west of the Tombigbee River.
Any fog that does develop will dissipate a little after sunrise,
along with ceilings lifting back up to MVFR and eventually VFR by
the afternoon hours. By the afternoon, a broken line of showers and
thunderstorms should begin pushing into our southeast Mississippi
counties. This line will slowly push eastwards throughout the
remainder of the day and into the evening hours before weakening.
Expect brief reductions in visibility and ceilings in some of the
heavier activity. Ceilings should start to lower back down to MVFR
by the mid to late evening hours. Light southeasterly winds this
morning will turn more southwesterly and increase to around 5-10
knots by the afternoon hours. /96

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 121 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Onshore winds continue to weaken today, becoming a light and
variable flow Thursday. A light to moderate offshore flow develops
Friday, becoming a moderate offshore flow over the weekend in the
wake of a cold front. Seas 2 to 4 feet today continue to decrease to
1 to 2 feet by Thursday. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      82  63  82  59 /  40  40  10   0
Pensacola   82  68  80  65 /  10  20  20   0
Destin      81  69  80  66 /  30  20  30  10
Evergreen   82  63  81  56 /  40  30  10  10
Waynesboro  79  54  81  51 /  60  10   0   0
Camden      80  60  79  53 /  70  40   0  10
Crestview   82  65  82  61 /  30  20  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for ALZ261-263-
     265.

     High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for MSZ075-076-
     078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$