990
FXUS64 KMOB 031131
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
531 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 528 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

 - A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents exists at all area
   beaches through Tuesday night. Surf heights up to 5 feet are
   expected through Tuesday, with rough surf expected.

 - Moderate to strong easterly winds will create hazardous
   conditions for small craft through midweek.

 - A cold front will move through the area on Wednesday into
   Thursday, with a few periods of showers and thunderstorms
   possible across the area. The threat for severe thunderstorms
   is low at this time.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 528 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Forecast remains on track. MM/25

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1043 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Rather calm night tonight looking at observational trends and recent
GOES-16 IR/WV and Night Microphysics. Only item to mention is patchy
upper-level clouds, with greater coverage increasing over the NW
Gulf in association with a deepening upper-level low over the
central US, accelerating upper-level moisture northeast over the
Mexican Plateau. Meanwhile at the surface, downstream divergence
ahead of the eastward drifting trough has resulted in surface low
genesis over northern OK/southern KS, with a cold front draped south
into north-central Texas where a few strong to severe storms
continue. This will be the main focus in the short-term as this
system approaches our area, so let`s dive right into it!

We`ll be seeing many notable changes over the next 12-24 hours in
regards to the evolution in the system to our west. Beginning aloft,
the greatest PVA/vorticity loaded at the apex of the shortwave
impulse slingshots northeast, allowing in most jet dynamics/synoptic-
scale lift to eject quickly towards the Midwest along with the
occluding surface low. This evolution is highly important in regards
to what we`ll experience here locally, as now we`re within the
depths of the convection allowing model time windows, and are
acquiring a better idea of timing/windows and subtle threats
possible.

That aside, a pretty interesting feature in the western Gulf;
lingering energy and broad cyclonic rotation aloft from a subtle
inverted trough, responsible for recent heavy rains over the
Florida Peninsula retrograding west, slowly. Can see this spin
well on WV/IR trends tonight, and reflected in SPC
Mesoanalysis/RAP trends. Zooming in towards the surface, we`ll
continue to see increasing southeasterly gradient surface winds
offshore, around the northern apex of the surface trough. The
combination of the approaching central US system and southerly
moisture advection off the Gulf tries to amplify a small-scale
zone of SE to NW oriented confluence banding, resulting in bands
of showers and a few storms late Tuesday morning thru the
afternoon and evening. These could need to be watched. Small-scale
banding like this can result in a very localized enhancement of
shear/surface vorticity, when interacting with shallow cells can
uptick the risk for a few waterspouts or even an isolated tornado.
Nothing substantial, by all means and conditional risk is rather
low, but can sometimes be a curve ball and will need monitoring.

Otherwise, this activity drapes east overnight, mainly east of I-65
and again, will continue to monitor as the mesoscale confluence
banding orients more due south to due north thanks to deepening
unidirectional low-level southerly flow taking over in response to
the trough approaching. We could see a brief lull in rain chances
overnight into early Wednesday, but still can`t rule out periods of
light drizzle at times. Meanwhile going later into the day, the
front approaches and as mentioned earlier with the better/greater
jet dynamics eject well north away from the area, the only lift
left is mainly frontogenetic and supported with subtle instability
for a broken line of showers/few storms at times sweeping slowly
west to east. Will monitor far northern counties where a few gusty
bands on radar can`t be ruled out along the line, but coverage will
thin out the closer you get to the coast.

Thereafter going into Wednesday night and Thursday, will watch the
front slow down as it aligns parallel to H5 flow aloft, resulting in
almost no large-scale ascent left over than weak frontogenetic
lift but likely will rain out with time as showers slowly drift
into eastern areas (south-central AL/NW Florida) Wednesday night.
Aloft, we`re between impulses with quasi-zontal flow persisting,
then the next shortwave impulse dives into the central US. With
the front lingering around, will have to keep an mention of a few
showers at times through Thursday, as any subtle frontogenetic
lift lingering combined with destabilization during the day could
support a few isolated showers at times. PoP`s coming in from the
recent 01Z NBM are a tad low, in the 10-20% range with better
chances over eastern areas, which makes sense, but would not be
surprised to see this increase some over the next few days but
should remain rather isolated regardless.

Best rain chances will return again on Friday as the impulse over
the central US dives southeast into our area, re-amplifying
associated PVA/lift for more widespread showers at times. Nothing
impactful standing out with guidance, and quickly gets a push out
of here just in time for the weekend.

The weekend is looking nice and cooler overall as ridging amplifies
in the west-central US owing in downstream convergence aloft and
surface high to dive into the region. Lows in the 30`s can`t be
ruled out for northern parts of the area Sunday thru Tuesday,
perhaps even tapping into the mid to low 30`s for northern areas
Tuesday morning once winds relax under the surface high and we`re
within the window of maximized radiational cooling - some of the
coldest air so far this season. Something we`ll look closer at in
the coming days. KLG

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 528 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Generally MVFR flight category prevails across the region this
morning. This should improve back to VFR as ceilings lift by mid
to late morning. Isolated to scattered showers become possible
this afternoon, increasing in coverage as we head into the evening
and overnight hours tonight. Winds remain out of the east at
around 5 to 10 knots, with winds closer to 15 knots near the
coast. Gusts will occasionally be in the 15 to 20 knot range,
highest near the coast. MM/25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1211 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

A moderate to strong easterly flow continues through Tuesday with
a tight pressure gradient over the northern Gulf. Winds will
shift southeasterly Tuesday night as a system approaches the area
from the west. Winds gradually decrease and turn southerly
Wednesday, becoming offshore Wednesday night through the weekend.
Seas remain near 5-7 feet today and will gradually decrease
throughout the week.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      79  68  82  62 /  50  40  50  10
Pensacola   80  71  81  67 /  50  60  30  10
Destin      80  72  80  69 /  40  70  60  10
Evergreen   80  67  80  62 /  50  70  70  20
Waynesboro  80  65  80  55 /  40  50  60  10
Camden      79  66  79  59 /  40  70  60  30
Crestview   82  69  82  64 /  50  70  60  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ650-655-
     670-675.

&&

$$