340
FXUS64 KMOB 161710
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1210 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1131 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

- Abnormally hot temperatures and heat indices continue throughout
  the upcoming week. Heat advisories will likely be needed each
  day as heat indices soar to the 105 to 112 degree range each
  afternoon.

- A Moderate risk of rip currents returns to Florida Panhandle
  beaches Monday, persisting into mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Abnormally hot conditions continue across the region with daily
high temperatures in the upper 90`s to near 100 and afternoon heat
indices areawide in the 105 to 112 degree range through at least
mid-week. This will result in continued heat stress to
individuals spending time outdoors and/or without access to air
conditioning. Given this, another Heat Advisory has been issued
for the entire area Monday from 11am to 8pm, with additional heat
advisories likely to come as we head through the rest of the
week. Some locations along the immediate coastal interface around
Mobile Bay and Pensacola Bay may see heat indices approach/exceed
113 any given afternoon. If confidence on this can increase in
future forecast updates a targeted Extreme Heat Warning may become
necessary for portions of our coastal counties in Alabama and the
western Florida Panhandle. The overall pattern responsible for
the hot weather remains rooted in place as upper ridging prevails
across the region and surface high pressure remains situated over
the northern gulf. Some glimmer of hope for a little bit of relief
comes late week as upper ridging weakens and we see an increased
chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, particularly as we
head into Friday and the upcoming weekend. Temperatures will be
relatively "cooler" in the middle 90`s late week into the weekend
and afternoon heat indices relax somewhat into the 100 to 110
degree range. Overnight lows follow a similar cadence, staying in
the middle to upper 70`s areawide with near 80 along the immediate
coast through Wednesday night, cooling a few degrees for late
week into the weekend.

Daily isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms can be
expected, primarily in association with the sea breeze through
mid-week. These chances increase late week into the weekend owing
to the aforementioned adjustments in the upper air pattern. Some
dry air aloft combined with PWAT`s in the 2 to 2.3" range each
afternoon will favor locally strong to damaging wind gusts from
wet microbursts associated with any storms that are able to
develop sufficiently deep, stronger cores. This is particularly
the case in any cell collisions that occur.

Increasing westerly flow along the immediate coast will allow for
an increase in the risk for rip currents along the western Florida
Panhandle Monday through Wednesday. A Low risk for rip currents
exists today for all beaches, becoming a Moderate risk Monday for
the Florida Panhandle beaches. Alabama beaches are currently
expected to remain Low through the week, but forecast trends will
be monitored as we begin the week. MM/25

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

VFR flight category prevails across the region outside of
temporary reductions in flight category underneath any afternoon
isolated to scattered showers/storms. Winds will remain generally
out of the north today less than 5 knots, becoming southerly
around 5 to 10 knots with the inland advancing sea-breeze
boundary this afternoon. Light southwesterly winds tonight shift
to westerly Monday morning at around 5 knots. MM/25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

A light to occasionally moderate westerly flow pattern persists
across the marine waters this week. Isolated to potentially
scattered showers and storms can be expected each morning with
locally higher seas and winds near storms. Any morning
thunderstorms that can develop and remain rooted along the land-
breeze boundary may have the potential to produce waterspouts.
MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      77  97  77  96 /  10  30  20  50
Pensacola   81  95  81  96 /  10  30  20  30
Destin      82  92  82  94 /  10  30  20  30
Evergreen   77  99  76  98 /   0  40  30  30
Waynesboro  77 101  73 100 /   0  40  20  40
Camden      77  98  75  97 /   0  30  20  20
Crestview   77  98  77  97 /  10  30  30  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for ALZ051>060-
     261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$