211
FXUS64 KMOB 021858
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
158 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...New Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Northwesterly flow aloft will persist through Thursday as the
longwave trough over eastern North America is reinforced by an
upper closed low pressure area diving southeast over south central
Canada. We will then see a pattern change as the longwave trough
lifts north-northeastward with primarily zonal flow aloft to
finish off the week. The GFS and ECMWF models are showing slight
departures in the timing and position of an upper shortwave
forming over the southern Great Plains through the remainder of
the forecast. The ECMWF is faster with the development of the
upper shortwave over the weekend, with a slow eastward drift
toward the Mississippi River early next week. The GFS lags behind
with the development of the upper shortwave until Monday, and
keeps it rather stationary. Regardless of the timing, we will
eventually see a return to a deep southern flow with PWATs likely
increasing back up to between 2-2.25" sometime early next week.
Light winds will continue through the upcoming weekend as a weak
surface high pressure area persists across the region.

Dry weather conditions will continue tonight through upcoming
weekend outside of a stray afternoon shower or two, but not enough
coverage to include mentioning in the forecast. Although we are
maintaining dry conditions over the weekend per the NBM, I would
not be surprised that we may need to eventually included some
isolated daytime PoPs Saturday and Sunday, but this all depends on
the timing of the upper shortwave and moisture recovery. Higher
shower and thunderstorm coverage should likely return by Monday.

The forecast will mainly be a temperature forecast with highs in
the upper 80s and lower 90s on Wednesday slowly climbing into the
90-95 degree range Friday through the weekend. After a couple of
more nights with low temperatures on the coolish side, we will see
return of lows climbing to slightly above normal Thursday night
through the weekend. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

VFR flight category prevails through Wednesday. Winds remain light
out of the northeast to east today through Wednesday afternoon,
with light and variable winds expected overnight tonight. MM/25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

No significant impacts to small craft are expected tonight through
the weekend as a light diurnal flow will continues with onshore
flow during the afternoon into the evening hours and offshore flow
late overnight into the morning hours. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      66  90  69  90  71  93  71  93 /   0   0   0  10   0  10   0  10
Pensacola   71  90  72  89  74  91  74  93 /   0  10   0  10   0  10   0  10
Destin      72  88  75  87  75  90  76  91 /   0  10   0  10   0  10   0  10
Evergreen   64  91  67  93  68  95  69  95 /  10   0   0   0   0   0   0  10
Waynesboro  65  90  67  92  67  95  68  94 /  10  10   0  10   0   0   0  10
Camden      64  90  67  91  68  96  71  94 /  10   0   0  10   0   0   0  10
Crestview   64  92  67  90  68  94  70  95 /   0   0   0  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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