350
FXUS64 KMOB 171112
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
612 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

An upper trof oriented roughly along the lower/mid Mississippi
River valley weakens while shifting a bit eastward through
Wednesday, with a more substantial upper trof meanwhile developing
over the central states which begins to progress into the eastern
states Wednesday night. A surface ridge persists across the
northern Gulf through Wednesday night and promotes a moist
southerly flow over the forecast area. Abundant Gulf moisture will
be in place over the area today with precipitable water values
near 2 inches, and plenty of moisture will generally be in place
for Wednesday as well, although drier low level air in the morning
portends a later start to convective development. MLCAPE values
both today and Wednesday tend to range from 1500-2500 J/kg. DCAPE
values today will tend to be low, except for potentially reaching
750-1250 J/kg over the western Florida panhandle. DCAPE values of
750-1250 J/kg look to be attained over the entire area on
Wednesday. Shear values remain generally low through the period,
but the higher DCAPE/CAPE values indicate the potential for strong
gusty winds with the stronger storms, and will need to monitor
for the potential of locally heavy rains as well. Have gone with
categorical pops for nearly the entire area today, with likely
pops for Wednesday. Highs will be in the upper 80s today, and in
the upper 80s to lower 90s on Wednesday. Lows tonight and
Wednesday night range from the lower 70s inland to the mid/upper
70s at the coast. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected
through Wednesday night. /29

The axis of the upper trough will be centered over the Mississippi
River Thursday morning. This trough will move eastward over the
eastern states through Friday, followed by an upper ridge building
across the entire eastern half of the U.S. over the weekend. A
typical diurnal pattern continues, along with a surface ridge over
the western Atlantic and southeast states that maintains a light
southerly wind through the extended. With the influence of the upper
trough, we will see a continuation of scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday afternoons. Rain chances trend
lower over the weekend into early next week as the upper ridge
builds, with hot and humid conditions remaining. Pulse thunderstorms
are possible each afternoon give ample instability and minimal
shear, so we can`t rule out a few strong storms with gusty winds and
frequent lightning being the main threats.

High temperatures should be in the lower to middle 90s through the
period. With surface dewpoints in the mid 70s, apparent temperatures
(heat indices) are expected to be in upper 90s to possible as high
as 107 degrees Friday through Monday. Lows should be in the lower to
middle 70s interior areas, and upper 70s along the coast. The rip
current risk will be MODERATE on Thursday, then a low risk follows
for Friday and Saturday. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Showers and storms develop across the area this morning then taper
off during the late afternoon into early evening hours. IFR/MVFR
conditions will be possible with the stronger storms, along with
gusty winds. Winds become southerly near 10 knots this morning,
then diminish to a mostly light and variable flow this evening.
/29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 303 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

A light to at times moderate onshore flow prevails through
Saturday. Winds and seas will be higher near storms, and the
environment also looks to be supportive of waterspouts in morning
activity near the coast. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      87  74  89  73  92  74  92  75 /  80  20  70  20  70  20  50  20
Pensacola   87  78  89  78  90  77  91  77 /  70  20  70  30  60  30  60  20
Destin      89  80  89  80  90  79  91  80 /  60  20  60  40  60  20  60  20
Evergreen   89  71  91  72  92  72  94  72 /  80  20  70  10  70  20  60  20
Waynesboro  88  71  91  72  93  72  94  72 /  80  20  70  10  60  20  50  10
Camden      88  72  89  72  91  72  91  72 /  80  20  70  10  70  20  50  10
Crestview   89  72  90  73  92  72  94  72 /  70  10  70  20  60  20  60  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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