425
FXUS64 KMOB 311838
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
138 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 136 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

- Thunderstorm chances increase today into the weekend. A few
  storms may produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts,
  torrential rainfall, and frequent cloud to ground lightning.

- A High Risk of rip currents is expected to return this weekend
  for all area beaches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Saturday Through Monday...a somewhat opening upper low moves from
over the Central Plains to the Mid West, taking an associated
surface low with. I say somewhat opening, become some guidance is
maintaining an upper low over the Midwest. As this system moves
east, the base digs south over the Southeast, shifting an upper
ridge that is pushing east over the northern Gulf coast back west. A
trailing weak cold front moves south over the Lower Mississippi
River Valley, then the western half of the Southeast over the
weekend into the coming week. Guidance is advertising this front
moving southeast across the forecast area late Saturday into Sunday
before stalling southeast of the forecast area by Monday. This front
is expected to usher in mainly a drier airmass over the forecast
area, as apposed to cooler temperatures. Precipitable h20 values
drop from the 2.1"-2.3" range today into Saturday drop into the 1.3"-
1.5" range by Monday morning. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms expected today will decrease and shift east Saturday,
then southeast Saturday night on with the drop in deep layer
moisture. The eastward shift is due to an upper level shortwave
moving southeast across the forecast area later today through
tonight. Pulse type severe storms remain a possibility this
afternoon, shifting south to the coast by Sunday.

Even with the upper ridge moving off, the drier airmass will allow
for better daytime heating, keeping high temperatures around
seasonal norms over the western half of the forecast area (around 90
to low 90s). The eastern half of the forecast area sees a drop in
high temperatures over the weekend, to the upper 80s to near 90, as
the better chance of rain shifts east. The drop in moisture levels
will allow for better overnight cooling, mainly Sunday on, with low
temperatures in the mid to upper 70s tonight dropping into the low
70s inland from the coast Sunday and Monday, though near coastal and
coastal low temperatures remain in the upper 70s. Heat indices drop
with the decrease in moisture levels, dropping to below 100 by
Monday.

Monday night on...the upper low over the Midwest meanders east into
mid week before getting deflected northeast by an upper ridge off
the East Coast the end of the week. This low`s associated surface
low will help to maintain dry northwesterly flow over the forecast
area into Wednesday, keeping a dry forecast. The end of the week, as
the upper low moves off, the upper high over the Plains builds east
over the Southeast, a surface ridge builds over the Southeast,
restoring onshore flow to the Southeast and increasing moisture
levels. Rain chances see a bit of an increase the end of the week,
though with the upper ridge building east over the Southeast, this
increase is small. Temperatures see a rise with the increase in
influence from the upper ridge, back to above seasonal norms. With
moisture levels slow to increase, the rise in heat indices is also
slow, rising to the 100-107 range by Friday.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, the
approaching surface boundary will interact with a surface ridge
over the Gulf, creating a tighter pressure gradient along the coast
and moderate west to southwest winds. This will increase the Rip
Risk to High by late Saturday, with the Florida coast seeing the
uptick first. Winds begin to ease Monday, with a Moderate Rip Risk
Monday dropping to Low by Tuesday.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

General VFR conditions this afternoon will see drops to low end MVFR
in stronger thunderstorms expected to develop. Strong and variable
winds are possible with the stronger storms. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop again Saturday morning, though
the stronger storms are expected in the afternoon. Away from the
coast, general westerly winds 5 to 10 knots this afternoon, will
become light, then rise to 5 to 10 knots Saturday morning. South of
I-10, a tighter pressure gradient will bring westerly winds around 10
knots dropping to 5 to 10 knots overnight. Around 10 knots return
Saturday morning.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 136 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Light to moderate westerly winds becomes a moderate to
occasionally strong westerly to southwesterly flow for Saturday
night through Sunday before diminishing on Monday. Scattered to
numerous showers and storms become possible through late week, with
best chances this weekend.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      93  74  91  75 /  80  30  30  40
Pensacola   92  78  89  78 /  70  50  40  60
Destin      91  78  88  78 /  60  60  70  70
Evergreen   92  72  89  72 /  70  50  40  50
Waynesboro  94  73  92  73 /  80  30  30  40
Camden      91  73  88  72 /  50  50  40  50
Crestview   94  73  88  74 /  80  50  70  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Saturday afternoon through late
     Sunday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Saturday afternoon through late
     Sunday night for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$