645
FXUS64 KMOB 251752
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1252 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 435 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

...Now through Thursday night...

Into Thursday, a closed upper low off the Florida Atlantic coast
meanders west to over Florida on the south side of a strong upper
high centered over the Tennessee. The upper low then meanders
north over Florida into Friday. A weakly organized surface ridge
stretching west over the Southeast becomes less organized in the
process. The movement of the upper low brings a drop in mid level
heights. Guidance varies a bit, but MLCapes top out in the 3000-
4000J/kg range Wednesday, with DCapes rising into the
1000-1300J/kg range. Some guidance is advertising even higher
instability values. Any which way one cuts it, this is more than
enough for strong to severe storms, with damaging downburst winds
the primary threat. Add in mid level lapse rates in the 6.8C to
7.5C range, large hail becomes likely Wednesday afternoon. Winds
remain on the light side (Bulk Wind Shear <<20kts), so the chance
of organized storms is not expected, limiting the chance of
rotating storms. Enough moisture will be available (pwats in the
1.7"-1.9" range) and with slow movement of the storms, localized
water issues in poor drainage issues is possible. Another passing
weakness late Wednesday evening in the mid levels is expected to
bring another round of storms. Less instability will decrease the
chance of strong to severe storms, but a risk continues. Thursday,
instability decreases somewhat (MLCapes decreasing into the
2500-3500J/kg range, along with DCapes falling into the
700-1000J/kg range) as a slug of moister air ( pwats around 2"),
Still, strong to severe storms continue to be possible. Mid level
lapse rates drop into the 6.2C-6.6C range, decreasing the risk of
large hail developing.

With the strong upper high over the Tennessee River Valley, high
temperatures continue to top out in the low to mid 90s Wednesday
and Thursday before the rain cools things off. Looking at
resultant Heat Indices, the grids continue to flirt with Heat
Advisory levels (108F), rising into the 102-107F range over most
of the forecast area. A few localities can see higher values. Low
temperatures are a bit more seasonal, bottoming out in the low 70s
north of I-10, mid to upper 70s south to the coast.

A Low Risk of Rip Currents is expected into Friday./16

Friday through Tuesday...

The diurnal pattern continues through the remainder of the week
and over the weekend, with increased rain chances expected each
day as the upper low moves over the southeast states. Scattered to
numerous daytime showers and storms are expected each day with
the highest coverage during the afternoon and early evening hours.
Pulse thunderstorms are possible each afternoon into the early
evening, and we can`t rule out a few strong storms with gusty
winds and frequent lightning. High temps will be in the upper 80s
and low 90s. Low temperatures across interior areas throughout the
extended term will be in the lower to middle 70s and the upper
70s along the beaches and barrier islands. A low risk of rip
currents remains in place through the weekend. /13

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

VFR conditions prevail through much of the period. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop during the late afternoon
and early evening hours with brief reductions in ceilings and
visibilities. Added a PROB30 group from 26.06z until 26.09z for
anticipated late tonight convection along the coast. /22

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 435 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

No impacts are expected other than locally higher winds and seas
possible near thunderstorms. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  95  72  90  73  92  73  92 /  20  50  50  70  40  70  40  80
Pensacola   75  94  75  89  76  91  76  91 /  20  50  60  70  40  80  50  80
Destin      78  93  77  90  78  91  78  91 /  30  60  60  70  40  80  60  80
Evergreen   72  95  70  91  70  93  71  92 /  20  60  40  70  30  70  30  70
Waynesboro  72  95  70  91  70  93  71  92 /  20  40  30  60  20  60  10  60
Camden      72  93  71  90  71  90  72  91 /  20  50  40  70  30  60  20  70
Crestview   71  94  70  90  71  92  72  92 /  20  70  50  90  30  90  40  80

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob