068
FXUS64 KMOB 182353
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
653 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 653 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

  - Scattered storms expected each afternoon and evening this
    weekend into the coming week with gusty downburst winds being
    the main threat.

  - Warming trend is possible next week with the heat index
    potentially soaring to 105-111 across portions of the area.

  - There is a moderate (40%) probability of tropical development
    over the northern Gulf over the next 7 days.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 653 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Isolated to scattered storms are beginning to wane as we approach
sunset. The forecast remains on track and no updates are needed.
SS/97

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Through Tuesday...An upper low over the northeastern Gulf meanders
westward over the northern Gulf as an upper high over the western
tropical Atlantic builds west over the Caribbean and Southeast.
Small differences in the path of this low and its associated surface
low are leading to various probabilities in the development of a
possible tropical system over the northern Gulf. The further south
of the northern Gulf the surface low passes, the greater the chance
of a tropical system developing. Guidance varies in the
path/development/speed. As of the 2pm update, NHC is advertising a
40% chance of developing into a tropical system as it meanders east.
The current forecast is based upon the upper low taking a west-
northwest track, with the associated surface low taking a more
northwesterly path, moving inland over the western Florida
panhandle. With this track, deep layer moisture generally remains
over the forecast area and nearby, with a quick band of low moisture
moving over the forecast area Sunday night. The upper system
weakens, with most guidance advertising an upper trough over the
northern Gulf by Tuesday evening. Highest PoPs remain south of the
coast through the short term. Over land, scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms see a bit of a downward trend as best
instability decreases with increasing cloud cover as the main
circulation moves over the forecast area. Enough instability is
present (MLCapes rising to around 2500J/kg each day) for strong to
severe storms. Very weak wind shear will help to lean any storms
towards a pulse type severe.

With the better up subsidence over the Lower Mississippi River
Valley, combined with increased cloud cover over eastern portions of
the forecast area, a west to east gradient in high temperatures is
expected. High temperatures ranging from the upper 90s over and west
of the Mississippi/Alabama state line, with low 90s east are
expected. Low temperatures in the low to mid 70s expected. Heat
indices creep upwards into the coming week, with Heat Advisory
levels expected along and west of the Mississippi/Alabama state line
Sunday, west of the Tombigbee River by Tuesday.

Wednesday on, the upper low/trough mixes out, with an upper ridge
over the Southern Plains building east over the Southeast. PoPs
decrease as upper subsidence increases, with a weak cold front
bringing a bit drier airmass over the Southeast mid week. Even with
the increasing upper subsidence, cooler air moves over the forecast
area the end of the week behind the front, with temperatures
dropping below seasonal norms. High Heat Indices continue to be a
problem for the forecast area Wednesday, dropping below Advisory
levels for Thursday.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, a light to at
times moderate offshore flow will limit onshore swell, with a Low
Risk of Rip Currents into the early part of the week. Increasing
onshore swell and an increasing tidal range will increase the Rip
Risk  to Moderate to High Wednesday on.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 653 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Winds are decreasing as we approach sunset and will prevail
northerly to northeasterly at 5-10 knots by morning. There are some
indications of isolated to scattered showers and storms around
daybreak mainly for our counties in the northwest Florida panhandle,
so a PROB30 remains for the KPNS and KJKA terminals. Scattered to
numerous showers and storms develop tomorrow afternoon. These storms
are accompanied by gusty winds and drops of cigs/vis to MVFR and
even locally IFR within the strongest storms. SS/97

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 151 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

A developing system over the Gulf will bring increasing
flow, mainly south of the coast into the coming week. A Small Craft
Advisory may be needed in the coming week.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      75  96  75  96 /  30  50  40  60
Pensacola   77  93  77  94 /  60  70  30  60
Destin      77  91  77  91 /  70  60  30  70
Evergreen   73  93  72  93 /  30  60  40  50
Waynesboro  75  98  75  97 /  10  20  30  30
Camden      74  91  74  92 /  10  50  40  30
Crestview   73  93  72  94 /  70  60  30  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$