732
FXUS64 KMOB 290403
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1103 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1103 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

 - A much drier airmass persists across the area, leading to an
   elevated fire danger risk through Tuesday.

 - A LOW risk of rip currents continues through Tuesday before
   increasing to a HIGH risk Thursday for all area beaches.

 - Rain chances increase by late week and into the upcoming
   weekend. Heavy rainfall, which could lead to an increased
   potential for flooding, is possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1103 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

A dry airmass will continue to filter into the region, and the
risk for wildfires remains the main concern as minimum relative
humidity (RH) values this afternoon are expected to lower to
around 20-30% away from the coast. We still expect the sustained
winds and wind gusts to remain around 10 mph or less, well below
Red Flag Warning criteria. However, factoring in the dry
antecedent conditions and Moderate to Severe Drought across much
of the area, there exists an elevated fire danger risk through at
least Monday night and possibly into Tuesday.Some recovery is
expected Wednesday as RH values recover into the 30-45% range.

A surface ridge will then set up across the southern Appalachians
and the Southeast region, allowing for winds to slowly shift
easterly today (southeasterly along the coast) to southeasterly
for all areas Wednesday and Thursday. This will allow low-level
moisture to return into the forecast area with heat indices
increasing into the middle to upper 90s by Thursday. Rain chances
also start to increase mainly during the day Thursday, and
especially into Friday and the upcoming weekend as an upper trough
approaches from the west. There are some indications that we
could enter a rather active pattern which features several rounds
of very heavy rainfall over multiple days, which could ultimately
lead to an increased potential of flooding.

A Low Risk of Rip Currents is expected to continue through Tuesday
night. The rip current risk quickly increases to a High Risk by
Thursday as onshore flow increases. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. The current light
northerly to northeasterly winds become calm overnight. By morning,
winds become generally northeasterly near 5 knots inland and 10
knots along the coast. SS/97

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1034 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Light and variable flow continues through Tuesday. A moderate to
occasionally strong onshore flow develops Wednesday, persisting
through the weekend. Seas increase to 3-6 feet late week into the
weekend. Small Craft should exercise caution beginning Wednesday
night. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      89  64  89  66 /   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   88  68  88  71 /   0   0   0  10
Destin      87  69  87  72 /   0   0   0  10
Evergreen   87  59  89  59 /   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  87  60  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
Camden      85  58  88  60 /   0   0   0   0
Crestview   88  62  90  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$