556
FXUS64 KMOB 170103
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
803 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...Now through Wednesday...
For the current issuance, flooding issues over most of our southern
tier of counties along with a High Risk of Rip Currents continue to
be the biggest issue, with a Heat Advisory possible in the coming
week.

First things first, an upper low located southwest of KAQQ at
noontime is moving west over the northern Gulf on the south side of
high pressure over the Southeast. This system is expected to move
inland over southeast Louisiana tonight. Guidance is advertising
some organization as the surface circulation moves away from the
upper ridge, with southerly flow on the lee side of the system
strengthening for Thursday through Friday in response. Precipitable
h20 values rise to around 2.5" as Gulf moisture is pumped inland.
Add in MLCapes in the 1000-1500J/kg range (with soundings showing a
skinnier profile in the instability), and some guidance indicating
some added upper divergence, training, northward moving efficient
rainers are expected, with water issues a possibility, especially
over our southern tier of MS/AL/FL counties. Low level flow shifts
from southerly to southwesterly Thursday into Friday, but the
airmass over the forecast remains very moist into Friday night
before drier air starts to move northeast across the forecast area.
Flash Flood Guidance values are very high (1 HR amounts over 4" over
most of the forecast area in this morning`s guidance), so any issues
is expected to be from training cells. The biggest question is will
convection later Thursday night though Friday bring additional rain
to the areas that received the higher rain Thursday. Feel any issues
will be localized and not needing a Flood Watch to be issued.

For this weekend into the coming week, the upper level high pressure
over the forecast area shifts west over the region. Moisture levels
drop to around 2" over the weekend into the coming week. Guidance is
advertising another upper level shortwave trough moving over the
northern Gulf Wednesday, with moisture levels seeing an uptick ahead
of the system, and with that, an uptick in rain chances mid week.

Looking at temperatures, the increased rain coverage and attendant
cloud cover will drop high temperature to below seasonal norms for
Thursday and Friday. Upper 80s to around 90 expected with heat
indices in the upper 90s to around 100 over most of the forecast
area. With upper level high pressure over the Southeast,
temperatures quickly rise to above seasonal norms by Monday, mid to
upper 90s and heat indices in the 102 to 107 degree range are
expected for the beginning of the week. The uptick in moisture
levels combined with high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s will
bring Heat Indices rising above Heat Advisory levels by Tuesday.

An increasing tidal cycle will work with increasing onshore swell
from the moderate onshore flow to bring a High Risk of Rip Currents
Thursday through Friday night. The Rip Risk drops to a Low Risk by
Monday as the onshore swell decreases with the easing onshore flow.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 754 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Mainly VFR conditions will continue through mid evening with areas
of light rain with an embedded thunderstorm possible. Winds during
this time will remain light and variable outside of any storms.

A gradual lowering of ceilings to MVFR is expected later this
evening and persisting through the remainder of the forecast
period as winds come around more southeasterly and increase in
speeds. A very moist airmass with low LCL`s should support at
least broken decks between 2.0-2.5 kft. Overall, CAMs suggest a
weakening of the moisture convergence spreading from east to west
as the surface low attempts to consolidate a bit more overnight
offshore.

After sunrise and the commencement of surface heating,
expecting an appreciable uptick in convective development,
especially along the coast and impacting the TAF sites where
TEMPOs have been added for reductions in visibilities and ceilings
in heavier rainfall. Overall as the surface low attempts to
strengthen, southeasterly winds should increase to between 10-15
kts, with higher gusts. /JLH

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

A moderate to at times strong onshore flow is expected through the
end of the week on the lee side of the exiting system. Light to at
times moderate generally onshore flow returns over the weekend
lasting into mid week.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      74  88  76  89  75  92  75  94 /  60  90  60  90  20  70  10  50
Pensacola   78  87  79  90  79  92  79  94 /  60  80  60  80  20  60  10  40
Destin      80  89  81  91  81  92  81  94 /  60  80  50  70  10  40  10  30
Evergreen   74  91  74  92  73  95  74  96 /  20  80  20  70  10  50  10  30
Waynesboro  74  91  73  90  73  94  73  95 /  20  80  20  80  10  60  10  30
Camden      74  91  74  91  73  93  74  94 /  10  70  10  70  10  50  10  30
Crestview   74  89  74  92  74  94  74  96 /  30  90  30  80  10  60   0  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT Thursday through Saturday
     morning for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT Thursday through Saturday
     morning for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob