136
FXUS64 KMOB 162353
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
653 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...Tonight through Tuesday Night...

Weak upper troughing generally remains situated just west of the
area while upper ridging slowly builds off the southeast U.S.
coastline. This will keep the area in a deep, moist airmass into
Tuesday with another day of scattered to locally numerous showers
and thunderstorms expected. Temperatures will remain warm in the
upper 80`s to near 90 degrees for highs while overnight lows dip
into the lower to middle 70`s tonight and Tuesday night. Expect
the usual Summer time pulse-type stronger afternoon showers and
storms owing to ample instability and weak shear over the area
with gusty winds, small hail, heavy rain, and frequent lightning
the primary hazards with storms. If storms can train over the same
areas some localized flash flooding can`t be ruled out. A Low
risk of rip currents continues through Tuesday night. MM/25

Wednesday Through Sunday...

An upper level ridge over the western Atlantic continues to slowly
nudge toward the Southeast and eastern Gulf as we roll into the
back half of the week. A shortwave trough to our west becomes less
amplified on Wednesday as it pushes up against the ridge and
begins to lift out on Thursday. General ridging aloft builds into
the Deep South and Southeast Friday and Saturday before building
into the eastern half of the CONUS late in the weekend. Rain
chances trend back toward our typical summertime pattern regime as
we roll into the weekend and the heat starts to rise as ridging
builds into the region. In the meantime, expect higher rain
chances to continues each afternoon through Thursday. Pulse
thunderstorms are possible each afternoon give ample instability
and minimal shear, so we can`t rule out a few strong storms with
gusty winds and frequent lightning being the main threats.

Beach Forecast - The rip current risk increases to a MODERATE on
Wednesday through Friday. The rip current probability guidance is
trending toward a LOW risk over the weekend, but it`s borderline
LOW/MODERATE. 07/mb

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

VFR conditions will prevail outside of scattered convection this
evening and then repeated again on Tuesday. CIGs will temporarily
lower to MVFR categories with passage of any storms containing
gusty surface winds up to 40 knots, and frequent lightning. VSBYs
could drop as low as LIFR with storms containing heavy downpours.
Added PROB30 groups for all of our TAF sites starting at 17.12z.
/22

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 341 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow persists through the
week into the weekend. Winds and seas may be temporarily higher in
and around any thunderstorms. Waterspouts can`t be ruled out each
morning with any storms. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      74  88  74  89  75  91  74  92 /  30  70  30  70  20  70  20  60
Pensacola   78  88  79  89  78  90  77  91 /  30  70  30  60  20  60  20  60
Destin      79  89  80  89  80  90  79  91 /  30  60  20  60  30  70  30  50
Evergreen   71  90  72  91  72  93  72  94 /  20  70  10  60  10  70  20  50
Waynesboro  71  90  71  92  72  93  72  94 /  20  70  10  70  10  60  20  50
Camden      71  88  71  89  72  91  72  91 /  20  70  20  70  10  60  20  50
Crestview   72  90  72  91  73  91  72  94 /  20  70  10  70  20  70  20  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob