640
FXUS64 KMOB 011815
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1215 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1205 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

 - Low end risk of severe storms possible across portions
   of coastal southwest Alabama and into the western Florida
   Panhandle late tonight through early Tuesday morning.

 - Strong flow will likely create hazardous conditions for small craft
   over the open Gulf waters mainly from late tonight into
   Tuesday.

 - A high rip current risk remains in effect for the Northwest Florida
   Panhandle beaches today and for all coastal beaches of Alabama
   and the Florida Panhandle tonight into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1205 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

An active southern stream is expected to unfold with rain chances
increasing in the near term. A positively tilted upper trof
extending from the 4 Corners region to the northern Plains takes on
a meridional orientation before progressing across the eastern
states late tonight into Tuesday evening. At the surface, a quasi-
stationary front was draped over the northern Gulf. As mid-level
height falls approach from the west tonight, a wave of frontal low
pressure is anticipated to develop south of the LA coast and track
east northeast. The low skirts the central Gulf coast late tonight
and early Tuesday morning generally (between 03-09Z) before moving
away from the area Tuesday. The latest short range ensemble members
keep the better instability, albeit weakly reflected (500 J/KG+)
confined to the AL/NW FL coastal waters. As the low approaches,
dewpoint gradient marking the warm-front eases to the immediate Gulf
coast with little northward advance from there. Forecasters are
looking at a couple scenarios that could play out. The low tracks
closer to the coast and allows the warm front and better instability
to ease north across the coast or the low tracks south of the coast
keeping better instability more offshore and the higher impacts
from strong to a few severe storms confined over the marine area.
Considering the uncertainties, a marginal risk of severe storms
is outlooked for coastal southwest AL, eastward into the western
FL Panhandle tonight into early AM Tuesday. Despite weak
instability, looks to be enough storm relative helicity overlap of
150m2/s2+ to promote a few rotating updrafts lifting east
northeast across the marine area. A low-end marginal tornado risk
is presented if these are able to approach the coast. As
convection lifts across and north of the warm front, activity will
become increasingly elevated, lowering the severe weather threat.
Severe weather threat will be highly dependent on eventual low
track and position of the warm front. Important: Small deviations
in track can mean higher impacts or no impacts. Gridded rainfall
totals through Tuesday could add up to between 0.5 to 1.5". A few
local areas may see higher amounts. Rainfall ends from west to
east by mid to late AM Tuesday as the low lifts out to the east.
Wednesday dry.

The southern stream becomes active in short order by the latter half
of the week. The passage of a series of embedded impulses in the
west southwest flow aloft favors a persistent signal of lift within
a stream of higher environmental moisture in the Thursday to
Friday time frame. Coupled with another wave of surface low
pressure moving across the central Gulf coast Friday morning
supports maintaining likely to categorical PoPs Thursday through
Friday night. The pattern may support the potential of excessive
rain where a marginal risk is outlooked in the Day 4 Map =>
Southern LA and southwest MS Thu/Thu Night and Day 5 Map => much
of the local area. Including rains received in the near term,
event total rains ending Sunday morning could be 3 to 5". These
rains will be much welcome across a drought stricken Gulf coast.

Daytime highs sink to well below normal Tuesday through Friday with
highs expected to be in the 50`s north of I-10. 58 to 63 closer to
the coast. Highs moderate into the lower to mid 60`s area-wide by
Sunday. Overnight lows trend colder through the middle of the week.
The coldest night looks to be Wednesday morning with lows plummeting
into the mid to upper 20`s interior and some 10 to 15 degrees below
December 3rd normal. 35 to 40 right along the coast. The remainder
of the period, lows gradually moderate but still on the cool
side.

High Risk of rip currents transitions to all area beaches tonight
through Tuesday afternoon. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

IFR to LIFR ceilings will remain across the region today into
tonight. Light to occasionally moderate rainfall is expected to
overspread the area as we head into late afternoon and the evening
hours, lingering through the overnight. A few thunderstorms are
possible nearer the coast, with a couple strong to severe storms
not out of the question across the Florida Panhandle overnight
tonight. Winds will remain out of the east to northeast around 5
knots today into this evening, with 5 to 10 knots near the coast.
Winds shift out of the southeast across the Florida Panhandle
tonight as a warm front attempts to lift onshore. A surface low
tracks near the coast tonight with a cold front progressing across
the entire area through early Tuesday morning, turning winds out
of the north in its wake at 5 to 10 knots. MM/25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1205 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Moderate to occasionally strong southeasterly flow this evening,
switches to the northwest early Tuesday morning as wave of frontal
low pressure moves across. Small Craft Advisory remains in effect
for the open Gulf waters. Offshore flow diminishes Tuesday night
into Wednesday and becomes more easterly by Thursday. Onshore flow
develops Thursday night and increases into the day Friday as next in
a series of low pressure systems approaches and moves across the
central Gulf coast. Seas building later in the week. /10
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      48  57  31  58 /  90  20   0   0
Pensacola   55  62  37  58 / 100  30   0   0
Destin      56  67  39  59 / 100  40   0   0
Evergreen   45  58  28  59 / 100  30   0   0
Waynesboro  39  50  26  56 / 100  10   0   0
Camden      40  51  26  54 / 100  20   0   0
Crestview   52  63  30  59 / 100  30   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from 6 PM CST this evening through Tuesday
     afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM CST Tuesday
     for GMZ650-655-670-675.

&&

$$