141
FXUS64 KMOB 280515
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1215 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1215 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

 - A much drier airmass will continue filtering into the area,
   leading to an elevated fire danger risk through Tuesday.

 - A LOW risk of rip currents continues through Tuesday before
   increasing to a HIGH risk Thursday for all area beaches.

 - Rain chances increase by late week and into the upcoming
   weekend. Heavy rainfall, which could lead to an increased
   potential for flooding, is possible.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

A vertically-stacked low pressure system is expected to continue
impacting the northeast US over the next 24 to 36 hours. Counter-
clockwise flow around this system, along with high pressure over
the Midwest, is giving way to a northerly flow pattern over the
Appalachians. This, in turn, is setting up for a rather impressive
CAD (Cold Air Damming) pattern to develop across the southeast.
Much drier air (rooted mainly from the surface up to around 700mb)
has begun filtering into the area, particularly over our
northeastern counties, where dewpoints this afternoon have crashed
into the low to mid 40s. Throughout the afternoon and into
tonight, this dry airmass should spread across the remainder of
the local area, likely giving way to dewpoints in the 40s and 50s
areawide by tonight and into tomorrow. Although highs tomorrow
will still remain quite warm in the mid to upper 80s, lows will be
noticably cooler, with temperatures tonight and tomorrow night
dropping into the mid to upper 50s inland and the low to mid 60s
over coastal counties and into southeast Mississippi. The only
main concern with this pattern will be with regards to fire
weather, as minimum relative humidity values are expected to drop
into the low to mid 20% range. Fortunately, winds are expected to
remain well below Red Flag criteria, however, factoring in the dry
antecedent conditions and Moderate to Severe Drought across much
of the area, there exists an elevated fire danger risk through at
least Monday night and possibly into Tuesday.

By midweek, the low over the northeast US is expected to weaken and
pull away from the east coast. In its wake, high pressure will build
eastward, allowing for winds over the local area to slowly veer from
easterly on Tuesday to southeasterly on Wednesday. As flow becomes
more onshore, low-level moisture will begin advecting back in from
the Gulf. Subsidence from the high should keep rain chances low for
Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain chances start to increase Thursday, and
especially into Friday and the upcoming weekend as an upper trough
approaches from the west. Although we are still too far out to get
into details, there are some indications that we could enter a
rather active pattern which features several rounds of very heavy
rainfall over multiple days, which could ultimately lead to an
increased potential of flooding. We will continue monitoring
trends over the coming days.

A Low Risk of Rip Currents is expected to continue through Tuesday
night. The rip current risk quickly increases to a High Risk by late
Wednesday night as onshore flow increases. /96

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Light and variable
winds become generally northeasterly at 5-8 knots this morning.
SS/97

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

A rather light and variable flow pattern will continue through
Tuesday. Flow will transition to a moderate southeasterly flow by
midweek, with seas increasing to 3-5 feet. Exercise Caution
headlines may become necessary. /96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      89  63  89  67 /   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   88  68  88  71 /   0   0   0   0
Destin      87  70  87  72 /   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   87  57  90  61 /   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  88  59  90  62 /   0   0   0   0
Camden      86  57  89  59 /   0   0   0   0
Crestview   89  60  90  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$