632
FXUS64 KMOB 131126
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
626 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

...New MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 621 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

- Heat Risk increases Today, which will continue into the
  upcoming weekend. A Heat Advisory is in effect from 11AM thru
  8PM on Thursday, with additional heat headlines expected through
  the weekend. Afternoon heat indices in the 105-112 degree range
  will be dangerous for anyone outdoors for extended periods.

- A Moderate risk of rip currents returns to Florida beaches
  Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 404 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Showers and thunderstorms have developed along and south of the
coast overnight. With the northeasterly direction of movement,
have extended the northern end of the added PoPs inland, but not
quite as far as the I-10. Am monitoring for waterspouts, with the
non-meso tor parameter on SPC`s mesoanalysis site current
currently decently high. Everything else is on track at this time.
/16

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

An upper ridge stretching from the northeastern half of the Gulf into
the Plains becomes centered predominately across the southeastern
and south central states through Saturday. The landbreeze
circulation looks to aid in some convection developing near the
coast Thursday morning, after which the sea breeze supports
isolated convection in the afternoon mainly east of I-65. Isolated
convection is again anticipated to develop Friday afternoon east
of I-65 with the sea breeze. Interestingly, the change in
orientation of the upper ridge allows for a series of shortwaves
to manage to rotate into the forecast area and lead to a subtle
weakening of the upper ridge over the forecast area by Saturday.
This weakening and some improved deep layer moisture working in
from the east looks to allow for isolated to scattered convection
development on Saturday and also on Sunday, after which the modest
weakness in the upper ridge is anticipated to slowly shift to
over the ArkLaMiss region by Sunday night.

Highs on Thursday will be in the mid to upper 90s then trend to
highs ranging from 95 to 100 on Friday with similar values
continuing over the weekend despite the increase in rain chances
as convection will be developing in the afternoon hours. Heat
index values on Thursday will be mostly 108-110, and a Heat
Advisory remains in effect for the entire area from 11 am until 8
pm. Similar heat index values are expected on Friday and through
the weekend, with additional Heat Advisories likely becoming
necessary each day. The upper ridge weakens on Monday to become
confined to the northern Gulf coast states then on Tuesday evolves
into a narrow ridge oriented along the northern Gulf coast.
Despite this, hot temperatures are still anticipated with highs
ranging from 95-100 Monday and Tuesday with similar values
following for Wednesday as well. With no respite from the hot
temperatures, additional Heat Advisories will likely continue to
become necessary. Isolated to scattered storms will develop each
afternoon and hopefully bring some relief. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

General VFR conditions expected through the forecast. Showers and
thunderstorms have developed just south of the coast just before
sunrise, and may affect near coastal areas. A few afternoon
showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon, mainly
closer to the coast.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 621 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

High pressure over the Gulf will continue to promote a light to at
times moderate southwest to westerly winds through the forecast
period. Added Exercise caution wording for today`s forecast, with
coastal NOS stations/bouy`s advertising around 15kt with frequent
gusts to near 20 kts. Waves/seas will remain light with no
impacts anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      94  77  96  76 /  10   0  10   0
Pensacola   93  79  95  79 /  20   0  20  10
Destin      92  81  93  81 /  10   0  10  10
Evergreen   96  76  97  76 /  10  10  20  10
Waynesboro  98  76  99  74 /  10   0  10  10
Camden      95  76  96  77 /  10  10  10  10
Crestview   96  75  98  76 /  20   0  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for ALZ051>060-261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$