773
FXUS64 KMOB 062359
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
659 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 658 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

 - Strong storms are possible tomorrow afternoon with gusty
   downburst winds being the main threat.

 - Moderate risk of rip currents on Tuesday for coastal Alabama and
   northwest Florida beaches.

 - Peak heat index increases to around 105-107 tomorrow with the
   HeatRisk soaring into the Major category.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 658 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Isolated clusters of showers and storms across the area are on a
weakening trend early this evening and the severe threat has
decreased. Another round of potentially more widespread showers and
storms, some strong, is anticipated Monday afternoon, especially for
the southern half of the area. JGC/98

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Storms continue to develop and drift south early this afternoon as
the cu field blossoms across the entire area. As we roll through the
rest of today, strong to severe storms dropping into the region from
the north remain possible this afternoon and evening. A shortwave
sliding through the flow aloft will provide a focus for the
development of clusters of storms, and combined with ample
instability (especially north of the coastline) and steep lapse
rates, will result in the potential for more robust convection late
this afternoon into the evening hours. CAMs continue to provide a
wide range of solutions for convection this evening, but our current
thinking is that storms will drift into our area from the north,
especially for areas east of I-65, late this afternoon with
convection dwindling by 10-11pm. Gusty downburst winds are the
predominant threat in any strong to severe storms later today.

The local area remains on the eastern side of a ridge aloft through
Labor Day with northerly flow ushering in drier air aloft by the
afternoon hours. Another round of strong to severe storms is
possible in the afternoon and early evening hours with strong, gusty
winds being the main threat again. Afternoon mixing with much drier
air aloft will allow dewpoints to fall into the low 70s across
inland communities in the afternoon hours. Note that the downward
adjustment from the NBM dewpoints, which were far too high
throughout much of Monday, was the only significant deviation/change
on this forecast update. While it will certainly be hot on Labor
Day, these lower dewpoints should generally prevent the area from
exceeding criteria for a Heat Advisory.

Ridging aloft nudges further into the Southeast on Tuesday and
Wednesday with the development of deep layer easterly flow. The
ridge aloft quickly breaks down as we head deeper into the week as a
trough swings across the Midwest on its way toward the East Coast
while a potentially subtle upper low drifts west across the northern
Gulf. Diurnally driven showers and storms are expected throughout
the rest of the week in this general pattern.

Beach Forecast - LOW risk continues through the long holiday
weekend. The risk increases to MODERATE by Tuesday afternoon before
the falling back to LOW for the remainder of the week. 07/mb

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 658 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

The cluster of storms over south central AL is weakening and is no
longer expected to reach the coast tonight. A greater confidence
threat (30-60% chance) for showers and storms exists Monday
afternoon, especially for the coastal counties. A few of the storms
may create brief drops in visibilities to IFR or lower along with
gusty winds. Light and variable winds tonight will become light
northerly to easterly in the morning, turning generally southerly
across southern counties during the afternoon at around 5-10 knots.
JGC/98

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Waterspouts are possible throughout the morning hours over the next
several days. No other significant impacts are expected other than
locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. 07/mb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      74  94  74  90 /  20  50  30  50
Pensacola   77  91  76  88 /  20  40  50  60
Destin      78  89  76  88 /  20  40  60  60
Evergreen   72  96  71  91 /  40  40  40  40
Waynesboro  73  98  72  93 /  20  30  30  30
Camden      73  97  72  91 /  30  20  40  20
Crestview   73  94  72  90 /  30  50  60  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$