736
FXUS64 KMOB 171128
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
628 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 615 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

- Heat Advisory is in effect Monday afternoon into the evening
  for high heat indices up to 112. Additional heat advisories will
  likely be needed each day through much of the week.

- A Moderate risk of rip currents returns to Florida Panhandle
  beaches Monday, persisting through mid-week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 615 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

A few showers have developed over open Gulf waters. Have added
to the grids. Otherwise, no updates needed.
/16

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

The ridge will continue over the area bringing very hot conditions.
While under the upper ridge, we are under generally pretty weak
northerly to northwesterly upper flow. The area also has decent
moisture with near/above normal PWATs for this time of year with
values of 1.9-2.2" through the end of the week.

With the upper high to the west, this gives less subsidence over the
area. A surface high pressure out over the Gulf provides light
westerly to northwesterly flow through morning before the seabreeze
advances inland through the afternoon and this general surface
pattern lasts through most of the week. Isolated to scattered storms
are expected each afternoon over much of the area into this week
with some isolated storms over marine areas most mornings. Most of
the convection will be driven by the sea breeze and any resultant
outflow boundaries in the afternoon. We have plenty of moisture and
instability, so any showers and thunderstorms that get organized
enough will have the potential for strong winds in addition to heavy
rainfall and lightning.

The main impact through the period continues to be the heat. A Heat
Advisory is in effect for the entire area 11AM-8PM on Monday for
heat index values up to 112. The heat headlines will most likely
last through mid to late week. Daily high temperatures are in the
mid to upper 90s for most inland areas and possibly reaching 100,
especially in our southeast Mississippi counties. Afternoon
dewpoints will be generally in the low to mid 70s inland and mid to
upper 70s along the coast. This brings heat indices up to the 105-
112 range with some isolated areas briefly reaching up to 115,
especially along the coast as the seabreeze advances inland. There
continues be little overnight relief with low temperatures through
late week only reaching down to the mid 70s inland and the upper 70s
to near 80 along the coast. Anybody outdoors should drink plenty of
water, take breaks in A/C when possible, and monitor for signs of
heat illness.

The ridge does start breaking down towards the end of the week and
into next weekend allowing the trough to move further down towards
the area. This could help break the daily heat advisory pattern with
max and min temps decreasing a few degrees and potentially bring
more organized convection through the area if any waves can make it
down here. This wouldn`t be a full pattern change, but some slight
relief after the extended heat over the last week.

...BEACH FORECAST...

The rip current risk will increase to a moderate for Florida beaches
Monday through Wednesday. The rip current risk remains low for
Alabama beaches. Outside of any storms, surf heights remain
generally 1-2 feet through the end of the week.

SS/97

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

General VFR conditions expected through the forecast. Isolated
rainshowers and thunderstorms are forming along several land
breezes over the Gulf early this morning, then redevelop inland in
the afternoon. Drops in conditions to low end MVFR along with
locally strong winds are possible near the stronger storms.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 118 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

A light to occasionally moderate southwest to westerly flow pattern
persists across the marine waters in the coming week. Isolated to
potentially scattered showers and storms can be expected each
morning with locally higher seas and winds near storms. No impacts
expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near
thunderstorms.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      96  78  96  77 /  40  10  30  20
Pensacola   95  81  95  81 /  40  10  40  10
Destin      93  83  94  82 /  30  10  30  10
Evergreen   99  77  98  75 /  30  20  30  10
Waynesboro  99  77 100  74 /  40  20  30  20
Camden      98  77  97  73 /  20  20  20  10
Crestview   98  77  98  76 /  50  10  40  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for ALZ051>060-261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$