763
AWUS01 KWNH 071932
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-080130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1221
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
330 PM EDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Areas affected...Southwest U.S.

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 071930Z - 080130Z

SUMMARY...Isolated flash flood concerns across the terrain and
adjacent valley areas of eastern Arizona and the northern and
western area of New Mexico. Flashier dry river beds and remnant
burn scars are the main areas of concern. Rainfall rates upwards
of 1 inch per hour.

DISCUSSION...Afternoon destabilization across portions of the
Southwestern U.S. will allow for the development of scattered
showers and thunderstorms over portions of AZ and NM. PWATs remain
elevated between 1.1-1.6" across the aforementioned areas with
instability fields becoming increasingly favorable as we move
through peak diurnal heating. Low shear, high SBCAPE on the order
of 1000-2500 J/kg across the region will provide a sufficient
environment for pulse convection and a few convective clusters
with the primary target over the eastern Mogollon Rim and the
terrain in-of western NM. Rainfall rates between 0.5-1"/hr in
stronger cells are forecast, but some intra-hour rates could
breach closer to 1.5"/hr which could provide more appreciable run
off capabilities as a result.

Primary concerns will be those flashier dry river beds and any
remnant burn scars over the area along with the typical urbanized
threats in towns across the area. HREF probs for >1" are modest
with the maxima (40-60%) located over west-central NM to the AZ
border where convection is currently developing. This correlates
with the progged higher SBCAPE location meaning some stronger cell
cores are possible during their maturation process.

Flash flood concerns will be isolated overall, but the threat
remains coincident with the MRGL risk ERO in place and solid
continuity of the threat in the recent CAMs.

Kleebauer

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   36990520 36450450 35230648 34250701 33460741
            32390828 31920856 31530919 31381058 31411115
            31611226 31971295 33241165 34151127 35161081
            35841016 36530889 36970761