023
AWUS01 KWNH 240446
FFGMPD
KSZ000-241036-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0837...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1245 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Corrected for MPD Time Duration Shortened

Areas affected...Eastern Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240436Z - 241036Z

SUMMARY...The batch of thunderstorms over northern Kansas will be
the first in a growing area of thunderstorms across eastern KS
tonight. Storms will be capable of producing up to 3"/hr rainfall
rates and flash flooding may occur tonight. More urbanized
settings are most prone to potential flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Doppler radar and GOES-19 IR show a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over northern KS that are working their way east
along and just north of I-70 this evening. Storms are forming at
the nose of a strengthening 850mb jet that will approach 30-35 kts
over southwest KS tonight. There is also strong 850mb theta-e
advection that will overrun a surface-925mb air-mass featuring
cooler temperatures and E-SErly average-layer flow. This setup
acts as a form of isentropic ascent and will support additional
thunderstorms that are likely to form overnight and linger into
Friday AM.

These storms are forming in an environment that is growing
increasingly more saturated with PWs that are forecast to surpass
2.2" tonight, which are above the 99th climatological percentile
this time of year. There is also a narrow plume of 500-1,000 J/kg
of MUCAPE that resides within low-mid levels of the atmosphere
that are >90% RH. Lastly, there is also excellent low-level
vertical wind shear present given the strong veering winds from
the surface to 700mb (RAP mesoanalysis shows sfc-3km shear >30
kts).

FFGs are lowest along I-70 and east of I-35 where 1-hr FFGs are
less than 2"/hr. As storms move east, they will work their way
closer to east-central KS where FFGs are not as low, but a gradual
increase in urbanized communities are also present. MRMS 15-minute
radar estimated rainfall totals are topping out around 0.75",
suggesting hourly rainfall rates approaching 3"/hr are ongoing
within this first batch of storms. Given the copious amounts of
moisture, sufficient instability, and favorable shear aloft, there
is the potential for flash flooding tonight in eastern KS. Poor
drainage areas and urbanized communities are most vulnerable.

Mullinax

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...ICT...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   39809666 39669537 38479519 38069612 38129768
            38689845 39079867 39519858 39739795