005
AWUS01 KWNH 020907
FFGMPD
FLZ000-021505-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1548
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
406 AM EST Mon Nov 02 2026

Areas affected...portions of Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 020905Z - 021505Z

Summary...Flash flood potential continues across central Florida.

Discussion...Deep, slow-moving convection continues to focus along
an effective outflow boundary stretching from near Daytona south
through Melbourne and west to near Sebring.  Southeast of this
boundary, upper 70s F surface temps were contributing to around
1000 J/kg MLCAPE, while low-level easterlies were impinging on the
boundary, aiding in repeat convective development.  Kinematics
continued to favor slow movement of cells and local backbuilding
at times along the boundary, while 2-2.1 inch PW values were
enabling efficient rain rates of over 2 inches/hr locally.  MRMS
estimates of 3-7 inches of rainfall have occurred, and with
moderate to strong FLASH responses and recent FFG exceedances near
urban areas, excessive runoff/flash flooding is likely ongoing on
at least an isolated basis.

Ongoing convective trends will continue to change very little as
mid-level troughing/remnant MCV from prior convection remains
nearly stationary.  Rainfall over interior portions of central FL
continues to reinforce the aforementioned boundary, while
additional cells develop both 1) along that boundary and 2) move
in from the unstable airmass over the adjacent Gulf Stream.  Areas
of flash flooding remain likely, with locally significant impacts
possible where the heaviest of rainfall occurs over urban/poor
drainage areas.

Cook

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON   29598117 28908051 27828019 27078003 26608034
            26518103 26658170 27228243 27858256 28388219
            28828197 29518190