Flash Flood Guidance
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
083
AWUS01 KWNH 151331
FFGMPD
FLZ000-151803-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0697
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
930 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025
Areas affected...Space-Coast...North-Central FL
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 151330Z - 151803Z
Summary...Expanding coverage of thunderstorms containing very
heavy rainfall rates exceeding 4"/hr at times could drive
scattered flash flooding through 18z.
Discussion...Radar along the Space Coast depicts scattered
thunderstorms pivoting around a surface low (AL93), which
continues to drift inland towards the coastline. Within the most
intense convective cores -- some of which were exhibiting
backbuilding characteristics at times -- very heavy 3-4" rainfall
rates were estimated per MRMS.
Coverage of these intense rainfall rates are expected to increase
as a plume of very moist, unstable, and uncapped air (1500-2000
J/kg MLCAPE and 2.2-2.3" PWATs) advects inland with the surface
low, which will align with weak 5 kt Corfidi vectors near the low
center to favor additional backbuilding/training thunderstorm
segments. The last 5-6 runs of the HRRR have consistently depicted
a corridor of 4-7 inches across the highlighted area. This could
breach the 3-4"/1-3 hr FFGs to support scattered instances of
flash flooding through 18z, especially atop sensitive urban areas
near the Space Coast.
Asherman
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...
LAT...LON 29598121 29058081 28688052 28398054 28218079
28248127 28458170 28858192 29478171