650
AWUS01 KWNH 301941
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-010135-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1409
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
341 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Areas affected...North Texas and Central Oklahoma into Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 301935Z - 010135Z

SUMMARY...Numerous thunderstorms develop over the southern Plains
this afternoon along a trough axis. Heavy rates and repeating
activity can be expected to locally overcome dry antecedent
conditions and result in isolated flash flooding to 01Z.
Additional activity is expected overnight.

DISCUSSION...As of 1930Z...an upper low is over New Mexico with a
lee side surface trough extending down the southern Plains from a
low over southwest KS. Abundant Gulf moisture is present in this
corridor with PW of 2.4" advecting north from North Texas on 30kt
Sly low level flow. Sufficient tall/skinny CAPE accompanies this
corridor and mostly small cells currently over North Texas (west
from Fort Worth) will continue to grow upscale and expand north
through central OK into southern KS through mid-afternoon.

Deep layer SSWly flow is parallel to the surface trough and should
allow repeating activity. Recent HRRR/RRFS runs agree on 2-4" QPF
maxima from North Texas to south Kansas to 01Z. Much of this area
has been rain free for more than a week with extensive drought
centered over OK. However, this abundant moisture and
repeating/training risk should allow rates to exceed 2"/hr and
cause isolated flash flooding especially in metro areas.

An organized line of heavy convection is expected to cross this
region overnight and make for a considerable flash flood threat,
so expect a subsequent discussion this evening.


Jackson

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...ICT...OUN...SJT...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   38619659 37199572 34339592 32459611 31299677
            30979835 31809902 32659868 33109862 35479832
            36519823 37579796