129
AWUS01 KWNH 051946
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-052345-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1158
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 PM EDT Sun Oct 05 2025

Areas affected...southern/coastal Alabama, parts of the western
Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051945Z - 052345Z

Summary...A band of heavy rainfall will move slowly across the
discussion area, with rainfall totals of 3-5 inches occurring in
some areas through 2330Z/630p CDT.  Isolated instances of flash
flooding are possible with this activity.

Discussion...Latest radar/satellite imagery depicts a band of
thunderstorms that has exhibited upscale growth and slow forward
propagation along an axis from near Foley, AL south-southeastward
to around 85 miles SSW of AAF/Apalachicola, FL.  This band was
moving slowly eastward, while individual cells were streaming
northward toward coastal areas near Foley and Pensacola, FL.  The
band of convection was also exhibiting very localized training
near coastal areas that was resulting in an uptick in hourly
rainfall rates (into the 3 inch/hr range).  These rain rates are
still falling shy of local FFG thresholds, suggesting that any
runoff issues may be isolated in the short term.

The band of ongoing convection should persist for at least another
2-4 hours given favorable low-level easterlies for
inflow/low-level shear, slight low-level warming (supporting
1000-1500 J/kg SBCAPE in the pre-convective environment), and an
abundantly moist airmass (2-2.2 inch PW values supporting
efficient rainfall processes).  Isolated flash flood potential
should slowly spread eastward along the western Florida Panhandle,
with areas near Pensacola, Eglin AFB, and potentially Panama City
experiencing heavier rainfall through at least 2330Z/630p CDT.  3
inch/hr rain rates will remain possible with this activity.

Cook

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON   31018783 30978673 30658550 29928509 29608528
            30218793 30748818