089
AWUS01 KWNH 171950
FFGMPD
ARZ000-180100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0472
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
350 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Areas affected...Central Arkansas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 171950Z - 180100Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving cells capable of 2"/hr crossing recently
saturated ground conditions and lowered FFG values, suggest
possible re-aggravation of localized flooding conditions over the
next few hours.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Vis/EIR and KLZK RADAR have shown recent
development across the Ouachita Mountains through central AR.
Surface, VWP observations and RAP analysis show a narrow but very
unstable axis in the wake of the mid to upper-level trough that
has crossed the Lower MS River and the approach of the old MCV
from this morning`s MCS across KS; where full insolation resulted
in upper 80s Temps over mid to upper 70s Tds and along a subtle
WNW to ESE return moisture axis from surface to 700mb per CIRA
LPW.  Air is very unstable within the axis with MLCAPEs over 3000
J/kg.  VWP and Visbible Cu streamers suggest 20kts of orthogonal
warm air advection across this moisture axis providing convergence
and weak isentropic gradient for ascent.  As such, moisture flux
of this high low level moisture (over 1.75") suggests efficient
rainfall production.

Given the strength of updrafts and orthogonal/unobstructed
WAA/moisture flux, rainfall production of 2-2.5"/hr will remain
possible with some weak DPVA to help maintain the strength of the
southwesterly low level inflow for a few more hours as the MCV
passes.   Deep layer steering in the wake of the trough also
supports movement perpendicular to the inflow/convergence axis to
allow for possible repeating.  However, with that stated, Hi-Res
CAMs are very insistent in weakening environment and overall tops
are warming and erroding (especially further east near the greater
stability from early morning convection/overturning (temps in the
upper 70s).  Still, the placement of this convection is
unfortunately aligned with an area that recently received heavy
rainfall/flooding and FFG values remain depressed and prone to
exceedance given 1hr values less than 2" and 3hr values less than
2.5".  Given this a spot or two of flash flooding is considered
possible over the next few hours.

Gallina

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   35139301 34949213 34719154 34359125 34029123
            33789138 33689186 33849268 34219353 34449393
            34829415 35129393