639
AWUS01 KWNH 101250
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-101700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1239
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
849 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Areas affected...Central and Eastern KY...Southern WV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101249Z - 101700Z

SUMMARY...Additional broken areas of heavy showers and
thunderstorms are expected this morning. A generally localized
threat for flash flooding will continue.

DISCUSSION...The mid-morning radar and satellite imagery shows
areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms continuing across
portions of the OH Valley, with some of the more organized
activity and colder convective tops situated across north-central
to northeast KY and into south-central WV. This activity is
associated with a series of smaller-scale vorts that are still
interacting with a moist and relatively unstable airmass across
the broader OH Valley region.

MUCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg are still in place with PWs of
1.75 to 2.0 inches. The moisture and instability transport is
still being aided by a westerly low-level jet of 30+ kts, and this
broader warm air advection along with fairly stronger convergence
still focused along the leading outflow boundary activity should
still tend to help focus some localized persistence of convection
through the midday hours.

Rainfall rates will be capable of reaching 1.5 inches/hour with
the stronger storms, and some additional localized storm totals of
2 to 3 inches will be possible. This activity will mostly be south
of the overnight/early morning activity that impacted southeast OH
and into parts of western WV, but the additional rainfall in the
short-term should tend to be aligned across areas of central and
eastern KY and into southern WV.

The FFG values acros these areas are a bit higher, with less soil
moisture/streamflow sensitivities right now by comparison, but
with the locally repeated nature of some of the convection and
some of the rugged terrain, a localized threat of flash flooding
will exist through midday.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   38698178 38578068 38238021 37828028 37528085
            37278217 37148344 37218491 37538555 38028543
            38398487 38648344