931
AWUS01 KWNH 030531
FFGMPD
MNZ000-NDZ000-031000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0305
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
130 AM EDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Areas affected...Northeastern North Dakota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030530Z - 031000Z

SUMMARY...Training showers and thunderstorms continue across
northeastern North Dakota. Rates to 2 inches/hour could continue
with the strongest storms for another few hours, causing
additional instances of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...A line of training thunderstorms has set up across
northeastern North Dakota this morning. The storms are the result
of a significant 25-35 kt low level jet at 850, advecting moisture
up to 1.4 inch PWATs into the line of storms. Instability remains
around 1,000 J/kg, which should allow the line of storms to at
least persist with similar intensity for the next few hours. The
entire complex of storms have been gradually translating
northeastward, but with significant backbuilding across central
North Dakota.

At the surface, an area of low pressure over north-central North
Dakota has a cold front draped to its south, with a trough to the
east. These features are helping anchor the storms over the area,
supporting the very slow movement of the entire complex, even
though individual cells are advecting northeastward. FFGs are
around 1.5-2 inches in central ND, lowering to between 1 and 1.5
inches per hour near the Minnesota border. This lowering near
Minnesota is the result of a widespread 2.5 inches of rain that
has fallen thus far into the northeast corner of ND. With
additional storms actively forming and advecting in that same
direction, it appears the area along I-29 from Grand Forks north
to the Canadian border appears at greatest risk for developing
additional flash flooding.

CAMs guidance is struggling with this feature. This is especially
true of all the guidance outside of the HRRR and RRFS. Thus,
focusing on those two models, they both suggest the storms will
hang on across this region through much of the rest of the
overnight hours, likely significantly weakening in intensity
towards morning. For this reason, the flash flooding threat should
remain elevated for the next few hours, then diminish with the
weakening rainfall rates.

Wegman

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON   49069869 49039628 47929679 47789739 47459900
            47129960 46910007 46980076 47320117 48100099
            48410013 48609956