836
AWUS01 KWNH 221937
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-230036-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1355
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
337 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Areas affected...Central New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 221936Z - 230036Z

Summary...The threat of potentially significant flash flooding
will increase this afternoon as storms with 1-2"/hr rainfall rates
expand in coverage.

Discussion...Trends in Day Cloud Phase and LightningCast imagery
show rapidly increasing showers and thunderstorms along and west
of the Sacramento Mountains in Central New Mexico. This uptick in
activity is partially tied to strengthening large scale ascent
between a vort max lifting northward from Chihuahua, and the right
entrance of a jet-streak analyzed over the Four Corners.

While so far storms have mainly focused along the terrain and
beneath breaks in the cloud canopy, coverage will expand over the
next few hours as deep-layer southerly flow and low-level upslope
flow remove lingering CIN and continue to moisten the column. 18Z
soundings from EPZ and and ABQ soundings already depict a very
favorable profile for efficient rainfall rates this afternoon,
characterized by "tall-skinny" CAPE profiles, 1000-1300 J/kg of
MUCAPE, PW values well above the 90th percentile. In fact, by 00Z
tonight the RAP suggests near daily-record PWs are possible in the
highlighted region.

As such, both the HREF and RRFS suites are in good agreement for
training thunderstorms containing 1-2"/hr rainfall rates to
continue growing in coverage over the next few hours, leading to
2-4" of rainfall generally along the I-25 corridor through 00Z.
Owing to the combination of complex terrain, burn scars, and urban
areas, numerous instances of flash flooding (some of which could
be significant) are expected this afternoon.

Asherman

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   36390508 35520502 34530528 33560543 32680568
            31920665 32090757 32920799 33680796 34730759
            35340719 36190626